FC Nordsjaelland

Aarhus

Superliga | Sun 13 Sep, 17:00

FC Nordsjaelland v Aarhus Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Nordsjaelland host Aarhus in a Superliga clash where the home side's strong early season form contrasts sharply with Aarhus' struggles. FC Nordsjaelland sit third with 14 points, showcasing a balanced attack and solid defense, while Aarhus languish near the bottom with just 4 points and defensive vulnerabilities. The home team’s tactical discipline and higher goal output create a clear advantage, setting up a contest where FC Nordsjaelland will look to capitalize on their momentum and home conditions to secure all three points.

BT4Y best bet

FC Nordsjaelland to Win

FC Nordsjaelland have earned 10 points recently versus Aarhus' 2, showing superior form.
Nordsjaelland average 1.8 goals per game with a solid defense conceding 1 goal on average.
Aarhus struggle defensively, conceding 2 goals per game and scoring less frequently.
Nordsjaelland rank 3rd in the league, while Aarhus are 11th, indicating a quality gap.
Nordsjaelland’s shot volume and accuracy support their attacking threat and goal-scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates FC Nordsjaelland's chance to win at 74%, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 55.6%, indicating strong value. This stems from Nordsjaelland's superior recent form, effective attack averaging 1.8 goals per game, and a defense that concedes less than Aarhus. Aarhus' poor defensive record and low points tally reinforce the home side's advantage. No data limitations affect this analysis, making the pick a solid value-backed choice with standard stake guidance.

Model Win Probability74%

Strong positive

Market Implied Probability55.6%

Positive

Recent Form ComparisonNordsjaelland 10 points vs Aarhus 2

Strong positive

Defensive StabilityNordsjaelland concedes 1 goal/game vs Aarhus 2

Positive

Goal Scoring RateNordsjaelland 1.8 goals/game

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

FC Nordsjaelland's superior form and tactical balance make them the clear favorite to win this fixture. Their ability to maintain defensive solidity while creating quality chances contrasts with Aarhus' struggles at both ends of the pitch, suggesting a home victory is the most probable outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“FC Nordsjaelland's consistent attacking threat combined with a disciplined defense positions them strongly against an Aarhus side that has yet to find stability this season.”

Key Data Signals

FC Nordsjaelland to Win evidence

FC Nordsjaelland have earned 10 points recently versus Aarhus' 2, showing superior form.

Nordsjaelland average 1.8 goals per game with a solid defense conceding 1 goal on average.

Aarhus struggle defensively, conceding 2 goals per game and scoring less frequently.

Nordsjaelland rank 3rd in the league, while Aarhus are 11th, indicating a quality gap.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Nordsjaelland to Win notes

In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored have been 3.2 per game, indicating a relatively open fixture historically with multiple scoring opportunities.
Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates are high (Nordsjaelland 60%, Aarhus 80%), suggesting a match tempo that supports goal-scoring chances, especially from transitions and set pieces, though defensive discipline may temper the final tally.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Nordsjaelland1.8

Avg goals scored

Aarhus1.2

FC Nordsjaelland1

Avg goals conceded

Aarhus2

FC Nordsjaelland40%

BTTS rate

Aarhus80%

FC Nordsjaelland60%

Over 2.5 goals

Aarhus80%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 69% · edge +3.9 pts

1.44

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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%

1.12

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%

2.1

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%

2.7

Check odds @ 2.7

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Both teams show contrasting BTTS trends: Aarhus have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating they often concede and score, while Nordsjaelland's 40% suggests more defensive control. The average goals in their last encounters is 3.2, supporting a moderately open game with potential for goals but not necessarily both teams scoring. This dynamic suggests a match where Nordsjaelland's defense could limit Aarhus' scoring chances.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFC Nordsjaelland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

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FC Nordsjaelland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

The current for FC Nordsjaelland to win reflect a market implied chance of 55.6%, which is notably lower than the model's 74% probability. This discrepancy highlights a clear value opportunity, as the home side's strong form and statistical advantages justify a higher winning likelihood than priced. The market price is therefore attractive for backing Nordsjaelland with .

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corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles latest football stats main football hub today's predictions best bets research acca fixture filtering

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

FC Nordsjaelland3.8

Avg corners for

Aarhus9.2

FC Nordsjaelland7.4

Avg total corners

Aarhus11.6

FC Nordsjaelland2

Avg yellow cards

Aarhus1.2

FC Nordsjaelland16.8

Avg shots

Aarhus20.8

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 62% · edge +0.6 pts

1.62

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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%

1.36

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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

Check odds @ 2

Aarhus average significantly more corners (9.2) than Nordsjaelland (3.8), reflecting their tendency to attack from wide areas and generate set-piece opportunities. However, Nordsjaelland compensate with higher shot accuracy and a solid defensive discipline, averaging 2 yellow cards per game compared to Aarhus' 1.2. This balance indicates a game with territorial pressure from Aarhus but controlled defensive responses from Nordsjaelland.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Nordsjaelland

DLWWW

Last 53W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 2D 1L

07 Sep 2026A FC Midtjylland2-2

03 Sep 2026A FC Copenhagen0-2

30 Aug 2026H Brondby3-1

23 Aug 2026A Sonderjyske3-0

16 Aug 2026H Silkeborg1-0

Aarhus

DLLDL

Last 50W 2D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 4D 3L

05 Sep 2026H Silkeborg2-2

02 Sep 2026H FC Midtjylland0-2

30 Aug 2026A Randers FC1-2

23 Aug 2026H Odense2-2

14 Aug 2026A Viborg1-2

Market aligned with main pickFC Nordsjaelland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts

1.75

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FC Nordsjaelland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

FC Nordsjaelland have accumulated 10 points in recent matches, demonstrating consistent winning performances and effective goal scoring at 1.8 goals per game. In contrast, Aarhus have managed only 2 points, struggling to convert chances and conceding twice per game. This form disparity underlines Nordsjaelland's momentum and advantage heading into the match.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4FC Nordsjaelland wins

2Draws

4Aarhus wins

23 Apr 2026FC Nordsjaelland v Aarhus1-1

10 Apr 2026Aarhus v FC Nordsjaelland1-1

24 Oct 2025Aarhus v FC Nordsjaelland1-0

28 Sep 2025FC Nordsjaelland v Aarhus1-2

16 May 2025FC Nordsjaelland v Aarhus2-0

30 Mar 2025Aarhus v FC Nordsjaelland2-0

Market aligned with main pickFC Nordsjaelland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows an average of 3.2 goals per game, indicating a history of open contests between these teams. While this suggests potential for goals, the direct meetings do not heavily favor either side, making current form and season stats more decisive for predicting the outcome.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Superliga

FC Nordsjaelland7

Played

Aarhus7

FC Nordsjaelland1.6

Avg goals for

Aarhus1.3

FC Nordsjaelland0.9

Avg goals against

Aarhus1.9

FC Nordsjaelland3

Clean sheets

Aarhus0

Market aligned with main pickFC Nordsjaelland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

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FC Nordsjaelland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Over the season, FC Nordsjaelland maintain a strong attacking record with 1.8 goals per game and a disciplined defense conceding just 1 goal on average. Aarhus' season stats reveal defensive frailty with 2 goals conceded per game and a lower scoring rate of 1.2. These long-term trends reinforce the expectation of Nordsjaelland controlling the match and limiting Aarhus' offensive effectiveness.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
3	FC Nordsjaelland	14	7	4	2	1	5
11	Aarhus	4	7	0	4	3	-4

The league standings show FC Nordsjaelland in 3rd place with 14 points, reflecting their consistent performance and competitiveness in the Superliga. Aarhus sit 11th with 4 points, indicating struggles to secure results. While standings alone do not decide outcomes, the points gap and table positions suggest a quality and advantage for Nordsjaelland in this fixture.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%FC Nordsjaelland Over 2.5

80%Aarhus Over 2.5

3.2H2H avg goals

In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored have been 3.2 per game, indicating a relatively open fixture historically with multiple scoring opportunities. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates are high (Nordsjaelland 60%, Aarhus 80%), suggesting a match tempo that supports goal-scoring chances, especially from transitions and set pieces, though defensive discipline may temper the final tally.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

FC Nordsjaelland v Aarhus Stats

Match Report

FC Nordsjaelland to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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FC Nordsjaelland

Aarhus

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FC Nordsjaelland v Aarhus Stats

Match Report

FC Nordsjaelland to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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FC Nordsjaelland

Aarhus

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