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Lyngby crestLyngby
v
Sonderjyske crestSonderjyske

Superliga | Sun 13 Sep, 13:00

Lyngby v Sonderjyske Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lyngby hosts Sonderjyske in a Danish Superliga clash where recent form and league positioning suggest a clear home advantage. Lyngby has collected 6 points from their opening matches, showing more defensive solidity and attacking threat compared to Sonderjyske, who have managed just 1 point and struggle defensively. The home side's tactical setup emphasizes controlled possession and quick transitions, aiming to exploit Sonderjyske's leaky backline. Sonderjyske's offensive efforts rely on individual moments from key attackers but lack consistent team cohesion, making Lyngby's home win a plausible outcome in this early-season fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Lyngby to Win

  • Lyngby holds a 67.9% to win with positive value at 1.62 .
  • Lyngby has conceded only 1.2 goals per game versus Sonderjyske's 2.8, indicating stronger defense.
  • Sonderjyske's recent form shows just 1 point from matches, while Lyngby has 6 points.
  • Lyngby averages 12.67 shots per game, outshooting Sonderjyske's 10.33, reflecting offensive pressure.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.9, suggesting moderate scoring but favoring Lyngby's control.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lyngby to win due to their superior recent form, stronger defensive record, and higher shot volume compared to Sonderjyske. Lyngby's ability to limit goals conceded (1.2 per game) contrasts with Sonderjyske's defensive vulnerabilities (2.8 goals conceded per game). Offensive metrics such as shots and shots on target further support Lyngby's attacking edge. The model's 67.9% win probability and positive of 6.2% at 1.62 reflect a solid football read for a home victory. No data limitations or price warnings affect this pick.

Recent form pointsLyngby 6 vs Sonderjyske 1
Strong positive
Goals conceded per gameLyngby 1.2 vs Sonderjyske 2.8
Strong positive
Average shots per gameLyngby 12.67 vs Sonderjyske 10.33
Positive
Model win probability67.9%
Strong positive
Value edge at odds 1.626.2%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lyngby's stronger defensive organization and superior recent form make them the tactical and statistical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to generate more shots and control the game tempo should translate into a home win against a struggling Sonderjyske side.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lyngby's balanced approach combining defensive resilience and offensive pressure positions them well to capitalize on Sonderjyske's defensive weaknesses in this Superliga fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Lyngby to Win evidence

Lyngby holds a 67.9% to win with positive value at 1.62 .

Lyngby has conceded only 1.2 goals per game versus Sonderjyske's 2.8, indicating stronger defense.

Sonderjyske's recent form shows just 1 point from matches, while Lyngby has 6 points.

Lyngby averages 12.67 shots per game, outshooting Sonderjyske's 10.33, reflecting offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Lyngby to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game in this fixture is 2.9, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Lyngby's low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) suggests controlled matches, while Sonderjyske's higher rate (80%) points to more open games.
  • This contrast may influence the match tempo and goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lyngby1
Avg goals scored
Sonderjyske1
Lyngby1.2
Avg goals conceded
Sonderjyske2.8
Lyngby60%
BTTS rate
Sonderjyske60%
Lyngby20%
Over 2.5 goals
Sonderjyske80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Goal trends suggest moderate scoring with an average of 2.9 goals in recent head-to-head matches. Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but Lyngby's stronger defense and Sonderjyske's leaky backline hint at a likely Lyngby win with some goal action, though high-scoring games are less frequent for Lyngby (20% over 2.5 rate).
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLyngby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.2 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Lyngby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The for Lyngby to win at 1.62 reflect a positive value scenario given the model's 67.9% win probability. This pricing aligns well with Lyngby's superior form and defensive solidity, making the home win a sound betting angle without major price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lyngby6.5
Avg corners for
Sonderjyske3
Lyngby10.75
Avg total corners
Sonderjyske8.8
Lyngby1.75
Avg yellow cards
Sonderjyske2.2
Lyngby11.25
Avg shots
Sonderjyske10.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +7.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Lyngby's average of 6 corners per game versus Sonderjyske's 3.33 indicates territorial control and sustained attacking pressure. Both teams maintain similar yellow card averages around 2 per game, suggesting a moderately disciplined match. Lyngby's higher shot volume (12.67) compared to Sonderjyske (10.33) supports their offensive control.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lyngby

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 3L
04 Sep 2026A Viborg2-0
30 Aug 2026H Odense1-1
23 Aug 2026A AC Horsens1-2
16 Aug 2026H FC Midtjylland1-1
09 Aug 2026A Randers FC0-2

Sonderjyske

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 6L
06 Sep 2026H AC Horsens2-5
31 Aug 2026A FC Copenhagen1-3
23 Aug 2026H FC Nordsjaelland0-3
17 Aug 2026A Brondby2-3
07 Aug 2026H Viborg0-0
Market aligned with main pickLyngby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.2 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Lyngby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Lyngby's recent form shows 6 points and a tighter defense conceding 1.2 goals per game, contrasting with Sonderjyske's single point and 2.8 goals conceded. This form disparity underlines Lyngby's momentum and defensive improvements, making them favorites to secure a home win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Lyngby wins
3Draws
6Sonderjyske wins
18 May 2025Sonderjyske v Lyngby5-1
17 Apr 2025Lyngby v Sonderjyske0-2
01 Dec 2024Lyngby v Sonderjyske0-2
26 Jul 2024Sonderjyske v Lyngby1-1
17 May 2021Sonderjyske v Lyngby2-0
21 Apr 2021Lyngby v Sonderjyske0-1
Market aligned with main pickLyngby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.2 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The last ten meetings between Lyngby and Sonderjyske average 2.9 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While this supports some goal action, the head-to-head record does not strongly favor either side, making current form and tactical setups more decisive for the outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Superliga

Lyngby7
Played
Sonderjyske7
Lyngby1.3
Avg goals for
Sonderjyske1
Lyngby1.6
Avg goals against
Sonderjyske2.6
Lyngby1
Clean sheets
Sonderjyske1
Market aligned with main pickLyngby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.2 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Lyngby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Season-long stats reveal Lyngby's balanced attack and defense, with 1 goal scored per game and a solid defensive record. Sonderjyske's higher goals conceded rate and reliance on individual attackers highlight defensive vulnerabilities that Lyngby can exploit.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Lyngby67133-2
12Sonderjyske17016-11
Lyngby sits comfortably in 8th place with 6 points, reflecting a stable start, while Sonderjyske languishes near the bottom in 12th with just 1 point. This table gap underscores the pressure on Sonderjyske and the relative Lyngby can draw from their position.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Lyngby Over 2.5
80%Sonderjyske Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game in this fixture is 2.9, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. Lyngby's low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) suggests controlled matches, while Sonderjyske's higher rate (80%) points to more open games. This contrast may influence the match tempo and goal-scoring opportunities.

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