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Excelsior crestExcelsior
v
Utrecht crestUtrecht

Eredivisie | Sun 13 Sep, 11:15

Excelsior v Utrecht Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 00:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Excelsior hosts Utrecht in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. Excelsior's strong start with 10 points and a high scoring rate contrasts with Utrecht's struggles, having just 2 points and conceding heavily. Both teams have recorded 100% Over 2.5 Goals matches this season, indicating open play and goal-rich encounters. Excelsior's home form and Utrecht's defensive frailties set the stage for a lively contest with multiple goal-scoring opportunities likely from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • Excelsior averages 2.4 goals scored and concedes just 1 per game.
  • Utrecht concedes 3.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive issues.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.2 over the last 10 matches.
  • Excelsior averages 13 shots per game with 5.4 on target, showing attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at a 78% chance, well above the implied market chance of 62.5%, indicating strong value. Both teams demonstrate attacking prowess and defensive weaknesses, with Excelsior's potent offense and Utrecht's leaky defense combining to produce high-scoring games. The 100% Over 2.5 rate for both sides this season and a 3.2 average goals in their last 10 meetings reinforce the likelihood of multiple goals. No data limitations or price warnings affect this confident selection.

Model Probability78% chance of Over 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance62.5%
Neutral
Value Edge+15.5%
Strong positive
Recent Team Over 2.5 Rates100% for both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.2 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Excelsior's attacking momentum facing Utrecht's defensive struggles. Excelsior's high shot volume and goal-scoring form combined with Utrecht's leaky defense suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a fitting pick. The data supports a lively encounter with multiple goals, making this bet tactically and statistically sound.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match goal expectation

“Excelsior's aggressive offense and Utrecht's defensive vulnerabilities create a perfect storm for a high-scoring match. The consistent Over 2.5 Goals trend from both sides highlights the attacking nature of this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Excelsior averages 2.4 goals scored and concedes just 1 per game.

Utrecht concedes 3.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive issues.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.2 over the last 10 matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.2 goals per game, indicating a history of open, attacking contests.
  • Both teams have maintained a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, suggesting a continuation of this trend.
  • The tempo and attacking intent from both sides create a strong route to multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Excelsior2.4
Avg goals scored
Utrecht1.8
Excelsior1
Avg goals conceded
Utrecht3.6
Excelsior60%
BTTS rate
Utrecht100%
Excelsior100%
Over 2.5 goals
Utrecht100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Both teams have demonstrated a strong tendency for high-scoring games, each recording 100% Over 2.5 Goals matches this season. Excelsior averages 2.4 goals scored per game while Utrecht concedes 3.6, indicating defensive frailty. The head-to-head average of 3.2 goals over 10 matches further supports the expectation of multiple goals and both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Excelsior Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Excelsior to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Utrecht Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The Over 2.5 Goals market offers clear value with a of 78% versus a market implied chance of 62.5%, reflecting a 15.5% . This pricing suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals, likely due to Utrecht's defensive issues and Excelsior's attacking strength. The at 1.6 are attractive for a bet supported by strong statistical backing and recent trends.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Excelsior5
Avg corners for
Utrecht3.6
Excelsior10
Avg total corners
Utrecht11
Excelsior1.4
Avg yellow cards
Utrecht2.6
Excelsior13
Avg shots
Utrecht11.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 56% · edge +10.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Excelsior's attacking control is evident with an average of 13 shots and 5.4 on target per game, creating sustained pressure and chances. Utrecht's lower shot volume (4.5) and corners (1.5) reflect their struggle to control territory. The higher yellow card average for Utrecht (4.5) suggests a physical approach that may disrupt rhythm but also lead to set-piece opportunities, contributing to goal chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Excelsior

DWWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 1L
08 Sep 2026A NEC Nijmegen2-2
05 Sep 2026A Willem II3-0
29 Aug 2026H Sparta Rotterdam2-1
15 Aug 2026H PSV Eindhoven1-2
07 Aug 2026A Cambuur4-0

Utrecht

DLDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 3L
08 Sep 2026H GO Ahead Eagles3-3
30 Aug 2026H PSV Eindhoven1-6
22 Aug 2026A Sparta Rotterdam3-3
15 Aug 2026H AZ Alkmaar1-4
09 Aug 2026A Groningen1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 74% · edge +12.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Excelsior Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Excelsior to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Utrecht Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Utrecht to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
Excelsior's recent form is strong with 10 points and a perfect Over 2.5 Goals record, reflecting consistent attacking output and defensive solidity. Utrecht's form is poor with only 2 points and a leaky defense conceding 3.6 goals per game, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring match. Both teams' recent matches have featured multiple goals, supporting the Over 2.5 selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Excelsior wins
5Draws
4Utrecht wins
26 Apr 2026Excelsior v Utrecht5-0
24 Aug 2025Utrecht v Excelsior4-1
27 Jan 2024Excelsior v Utrecht1-1
12 Nov 2023Utrecht v Excelsior2-2
25 Jan 2023Utrecht v Excelsior1-0
02 Oct 2022Excelsior v Utrecht0-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Excelsior to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Utrecht to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
The 10 previous meetings between Excelsior and Utrecht have produced an average of 3.2 goals per match, supporting the expectation of a high-scoring game. This consistent goal output in their encounters confirms the attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities that shape this fixture's outlook.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Eredivisie

Excelsior6
Played
Utrecht6
Excelsior2.2
Avg goals for
Utrecht1.8
Excelsior1.2
Avg goals against
Utrecht3.2
Excelsior2
Clean sheets
Utrecht0
Best odds for this sectionExcelsior Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
Excelsior to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Utrecht Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Utrecht to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
Season-long data shows Excelsior scoring 2.4 goals and conceding 1 per game, highlighting offensive efficiency and reasonable defense. Utrecht's 1.8 goals scored contrast with 3.6 conceded, indicating defensive weaknesses. Both teams' 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates this season underline a pattern of open, goal-rich games, justifying the Over 2.5 Goals bet.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Excelsior1063126
14Utrecht56123-8
Excelsior sits comfortably in 4th place with 10 points, reflecting good form and attacking strength. Utrecht's 15th place with just 2 points signals struggles, particularly defensively. While standings provide background, the key factor is Utrecht's defensive issues and Excelsior's offensive prowess, which drive the expectation of a high-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Excelsior Over 2.5
100%Utrecht Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.2 goals per game, indicating a history of open, attacking contests. Both teams have maintained a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, suggesting a continuation of this trend. The tempo and attacking intent from both sides create a strong route to multiple goals in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

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