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Estudiantes L.P. crestEstudiantes L.P.
v
Gimnasia L.P. crestGimnasia L.P.

Liga Profesional Argentina | Sat 15 Aug, 20:45

Estudiantes L.P. v Gimnasia L.P. Stats

Data last updated: Fri 14 Aug 2026, 07:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Liga Profesional Argentina derby features Gimnasia L.P. visiting Estudiantes L.P. Gimnasia currently sits second in the standings with a strong recent run, collecting 9 points and averaging 1.2 goals per game, while Estudiantes is 14th with just 3 points and a lower scoring output. Gimnasia's attacking momentum and higher over 2.5 goals rate suggest an assertive approach, while Estudiantes has struggled to find the net. The fixture carries high local rivalry stakes, with Gimnasia aiming to consolidate their top-table position and Estudiantes seeking to halt their poor form.

BT4Y best bet

Gimnasia L.P. to Win

  • holds second place with 9 points versus Estudiantes' 3 points.
  • Gimnasia averages 1.2 goals per game, double Estudiantes' 0.6 goals.
  • Estudiantes has a 0% BTTS rate recently, Gimnasia's is 40%.
  • Gimnasia averages more shots on target (4.8) and corners (3.4) than Estudiantes.
  • The model assigns a 70% chance for Gimnasia to win, indicating strong .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gimnasia L.P. to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and better offensive metrics such as shots on target and corners. Gimnasia's position near the top of the table and Estudiantes' struggles in attack underpin this . The of 5.0 imply a 20% chance, offering significant value given the model's assessment. No data limitations affect this prediction, making it a compelling selection based on current performance and tactical momentum.

Recent formGimnasia 9 points vs Estudiantes 3 points
Strong positive
Goal scoringGimnasia 1.2 goals/game vs Estudiantes 0.6
Strong positive
Shots on targetGimnasia 4.8 vs Estudiantes 4.2
Positive
CornersGimnasia 3.4 vs Estudiantes 2.0
Positive
League positionGimnasia 2nd vs Estudiantes 14th
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

is tactically well-positioned to exploit Estudiantes' defensive vulnerabilities, supported by their superior recent form and offensive output. Their higher league standing and consistent goal threat make them the logical choice to secure victory in this derby clash.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Gimnasia's attacking rhythm and table position give them a clear edge over Estudiantes, who have struggled to convert chances. This match should favor the visitors if they maintain their current momentum and clinical finishing.”

Key Data Signals

Gimnasia L.P. to Win evidence

Holds second place with 9 points versus Estudiantes' 3 points.

Gimnasia averages 1.2 goals per game, double Estudiantes' 0.6 goals.

Estudiantes has a 0% BTTS rate recently, Gimnasia's is 40%.

Gimnasia averages more shots on target (4.8) and corners (3.4) than Estudiantes.

What To Watch In The Data

Gimnasia L.P. to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.7, with a moderate frequency of over 2.5 goals.
  • Gimnasia's recent matches show a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting this fixture could feature a lively tempo with multiple scoring opportunities, particularly from the away side.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Estudiantes L.P.0.6
Avg goals scored
Gimnasia L.P.1.2
Estudiantes L.P.1.2
Avg goals conceded
Gimnasia L.P.1
Estudiantes L.P.0%
BTTS rate
Gimnasia L.P.40%
Estudiantes L.P.20%
Over 2.5 goals
Gimnasia L.P.40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 68% · edge -1.6 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Gimnasia's 40% BTTS rate and higher average goals per game contrast with Estudiantes' low scoring and 0% BTTS rate, indicating a moderate likelihood of goals from Gimnasia while Estudiantes may struggle to score. This dynamic suggests a game with some goal action but possibly limited from the home side.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Estudiantes L.P.

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
08 Aug 2026A Deportivo Riestra0-2
05 Aug 2026A Boca Juniors0-1
01 Aug 2026H Defensa Y Justicia3-0
26 Jul 2026H Independiente0-2
10 May 2026H Racing Club0-1

Gimnasia L.P.

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 0D 2L
09 Aug 2026H Barracas Central2-0
02 Aug 2026A Aldosivi2-1
29 Jul 2026H River Plate1-0
24 Jul 2026A Racing Club1-2
14 May 2026A River Plate0-2
Market aligned with main pickGimnasia L.P. to WinBetUK guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Gimnasia L.P. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Gimnasia's recent form is strong, with 9 points and a higher goal average, contrasting with Estudiantes' 3 points and lower scoring. This momentum difference reflects Gimnasia's and effectiveness in attack, supporting their chances to secure a win in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Estudiantes L.P.311694312
6Gimnasia L.P.26168260
14Estudiantes L.P.34103-2
2Gimnasia L.P.943013
Gimnasia's second-place standing indicates consistent performance and competitive strength, while Estudiantes languishes in 14th, suggesting pressure and potential morale issues. This disparity in league position underscores Gimnasia's status as favorites in this contest.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGimnasia L.P. to WinBetUK guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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Gimnasia L.P. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 40%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The current of 5.0 for Gimnasia L.P. to win represent significant value against the model's 70% win probability. This price sensitivity suggests a strong betting opportunity, as the market underestimates Gimnasia's chances based on form and attacking metrics.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Estudiantes L.P.2
Avg corners for
Gimnasia L.P.3.4
Estudiantes L.P.6.2
Avg total corners
Gimnasia L.P.8
Estudiantes L.P.2.2
Avg yellow cards
Gimnasia L.P.2.8
Estudiantes L.P.12
Avg shots
Gimnasia L.P.12.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 40%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Gimnasia averages more corners (3.4) and shots on target (4.8) than Estudiantes, reflecting greater attacking pressure and territorial control. Both teams show moderate card averages, with Gimnasia slightly higher, indicating a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Estudiantes L.P. wins
6Draws
1Gimnasia L.P. wins
15 Feb 2026Gimnasia L.P. v Estudiantes L.P.0-0
08 Dec 2025Gimnasia L.P. v Estudiantes L.P.0-1
19 Oct 2025Estudiantes L.P. v Gimnasia L.P.2-0
13 Apr 2025Gimnasia L.P. v Estudiantes L.P.1-1
28 Jul 2024Estudiantes L.P. v Gimnasia L.P.4-1
25 Feb 2024Gimnasia L.P. v Estudiantes L.P.0-0
Market aligned with main pickGimnasia L.P. to WinBetUK guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows a modest average of 1.7 goals per game, indicating generally tight contests. While this does not strongly favor either side, Gimnasia's current form and attacking metrics provide a stronger case for victory in this encounter.
Season team stats

Liga Profesional Argentina

Estudiantes L.P.21
Played
Gimnasia L.P.22
Estudiantes L.P.1
Avg goals for
Gimnasia L.P.1.2
Estudiantes L.P.0.6
Avg goals against
Gimnasia L.P.1.1
Estudiantes L.P.10
Clean sheets
Gimnasia L.P.8
Market aligned with main pickGimnasia L.P. to WinBetUK guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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Gimnasia L.P. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Over the season, Gimnasia has demonstrated a more potent attack and tighter defense, reflected in their higher league position and better goal difference. Estudiantes' lower scoring and higher goals conceded highlight their struggles, reinforcing Gimnasia's advantage in this matchup.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Estudiantes L.P. Over 2.5
40%Gimnasia L.P. Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.7, with a moderate frequency of over 2.5 goals. Gimnasia's recent matches show a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting this fixture could feature a lively tempo with multiple scoring opportunities, particularly from the away side.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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