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Desenzano Calvina crestDesenzano Calvina
v
Lecco crestLecco

Serie C - Girone A | Thu 17 Sep, 17:30

Desenzano Calvina v Lecco Stats

Data last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026, 07:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Desenzano Calvina and Lecco meet in Serie C - Girone A with both sides showing cautious attacking output early in the season. Desenzano Calvina has scored and conceded at a modest rate, while Lecco's matches have been notably low-scoring. Both teams are positioned mid to lower table, reflecting a competitive but tight league phase. Tactical setups appear focused on defensive solidity, with limited offensive breakthroughs so far, setting the stage for a match where goals may be scarce and defensive discipline paramount.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Desenzano Calvina averages 0.75 goals scored and conceded per game this season.
  • Lecco has scored only 0.25 goals per game and conceded 0.5, indicating defensive focus.
  • Desenzano Calvina's matches have a 25% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, Lecco's rate is 0%.
  • Head-to-head history shows a low-scoring encounter with zero goals in their only recent meeting.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting both teams' low scoring and defensive tendencies. Desenzano Calvina and Lecco have produced few goals recently, with Lecco especially struggling offensively. The head-to-head record and current form data support a tight, low-scoring game. The at 1.65 offer a small positive , making this a sensible selection given the tactical caution and scoring trends. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Probability66% chance of Under 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Recent Scoring RatesLow goals per game for both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Goals0 goals in last meeting
Positive
Market PriceOdds of 1.65 with 5.4% value edge
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical choice given both teams' defensive solidity and limited attacking output this season. Desenzano Calvina and Lecco have struggled to create and convert chances, reflected in their low goals scored and conceded. The tactical emphasis on containment and the historical low-scoring meeting suggest a tight match with few goals.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and scoring trends

“This fixture looks set for a cautious encounter with both sides prioritizing defensive organization over attacking risk. The low scoring trends and head-to-head history reinforce the likelihood of a tight, low-goal game.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Desenzano Calvina averages 0.75 goals scored and conceded per game this season.

Lecco has scored only 0.25 goals per game and conceded 0.5, indicating defensive focus.

Head-to-head history shows a low-scoring encounter with zero goals in their only recent meeting.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The Over 2.5 Goals trend panel over recent matches and head-to-head meetings shows a very low scoring pattern, with only 25% Over 2.5 for Desenzano Calvina and none for Lecco.
  • Their single previous meeting ended 0-0, indicating a tempo and tactical setup that suppresses goal volume, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Desenzano Calvina0.75
Avg goals scored
Lecco0.25
Desenzano Calvina0.75
Avg goals conceded
Lecco0.5
Desenzano Calvina50%
BTTS rate
Lecco0%
Desenzano Calvina25%
Over 2.5 goals
Lecco0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 61% · edge +5.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Goal-scoring data shows Desenzano Calvina averages 0.75 goals per game while Lecco scores just 0.25, with Lecco also failing to score in 100% of recent matches. Both teams have low BTTS rates, especially Lecco at 0%, indicating a strong likelihood of one or both teams failing to score. This supports a controlled, low-goal game scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionDesenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 53% · edge +6.9 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Desenzano Calvina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Lecco to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Lecco Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.65, reflecting a modest but clear value opportunity given the model's 66% probability. The suggest the market recognizes the defensive nature of both teams, but the slight indicates the price could be more generous. This makes the selection a sensible choice without being a standout bargain.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Desenzano Calvina

WLDD
Last 51W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 1L
13 Sep 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo2-1
06 Sep 2026A Union Brescia0-1
31 Aug 2026H Trento0-0
23 Aug 2026A PRO Vercelli1-1

Lecco

WLLD
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
13 Sep 2026H Giana Erminio1-0
07 Sep 2026A Trento0-1
31 Aug 2026A Treviso0-1
22 Aug 2026H Arzignano Valchiampo0-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 74% · edge +4.1 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Desenzano Calvina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lecco to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Lecco Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data shows Desenzano Calvina with 5 points and Lecco with 4 points, both scoring under one goal per game and conceding similarly low numbers. Desenzano Calvina's 25% Over 2.5 Goals rate contrasts with Lecco's 0%, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring match. This form profile aligns well with the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Desenzano Calvina wins
1Draws
0Lecco wins
16 Aug 2026Lecco v Desenzano Calvina0-0
Best odds for this sectionDesenzano Calvina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 42% · edge +8 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Load more odds for this section
Lecco to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The head-to-head record between Desenzano Calvina and Lecco is limited to one match, which ended goalless. This small sample still suggests a cautious tactical approach when these teams meet, with defensive discipline prevailing and few scoring opportunities created, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Desenzano Calvina4
Played
Lecco4
Desenzano Calvina0.8
Avg goals for
Lecco0.3
Desenzano Calvina0.8
Avg goals against
Lecco0.5
Desenzano Calvina1
Clean sheets
Lecco2
Best odds for this sectionDesenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 53% · edge +6.9 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Desenzano Calvina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Lecco to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Lecco Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Season-long statistics highlight both teams' modest attacking output and solid defensive records. Desenzano Calvina's balanced goals for and against around 0.75 per game and Lecco's even lower scoring rate underline a defensive approach. These season stats support the likelihood of a match with fewer than three goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Desenzano Calvina541210
16Lecco44112-1
Desenzano Calvina sits 10th and Lecco 16th in the Serie C - Girone A standings, reflecting mid-table stability and limited offensive firepower. The league context suggests both sides are focused on avoiding defeats rather than pushing aggressively for wins, which often results in tighter, lower-scoring games.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Desenzano Calvina Over 2.5
0%Lecco Over 2.5
0H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 Goals trend panel over recent matches and head-to-head meetings shows a very low scoring pattern, with only 25% Over 2.5 for Desenzano Calvina and none for Lecco. Their single previous meeting ended 0-0, indicating a tempo and tactical setup that suppresses goal volume, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.

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