Football Stats Hub

Criciuma crestCriciuma
v
Sport Recife crestSport Recife

Serie B | Sat 04 Jul, 20:00

Criciuma v Sport Recife Stats

Data last updated: Fri 03 Jul 2026, 03:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Criciuma hosts Sport Recife in a Serie B clash where both teams are closely matched in the standings, with Criciuma holding a slight edge in points and league position. Criciuma's recent form shows stronger defensive solidity, conceding fewer goals and accumulating more points in recent matches. Sport Recife, while competitive, has struggled to convert chances consistently and concedes more frequently. The tactical battle will likely focus on Criciuma's disciplined defense against Sport Recife's attempts to break through, making this a contest of control and efficiency under pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Criciuma to Win

  • Criciuma ranks 4th with 27 points, slightly ahead of Sport Recife in 8th with 25 points.
  • Criciuma concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showcasing strong defensive form.
  • Sport Recife has a higher BTTS rate (60%) but concedes twice as many goals as Criciuma.
  • Criciuma averages more shots per game (14.2) and corners (6.6), indicating attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Criciuma to win with a 74% chance, supported by their superior recent form and defensive record. Criciuma's ability to limit goals conceded to 0.4 per game contrasts with Sport Recife's 0.8, indicating a defensive edge. Criciuma also applies more attacking pressure, averaging 14.2 shots and 6.6 corners per match, which increases scoring opportunities. The data quality is solid, with no limitations on team data, reinforcing in this selection.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Criciuma Defensive Strength0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Attacking Pressure14.2 shots and 6.6 corners per game
Positive
Sport Recife BTTS Rate60% (higher risk for clean sheet)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Criciuma's defensive resilience and recent form make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to limit goals conceded and maintain attacking pressure contrasts with Sport Recife's inconsistency, providing a strong foundation for a home win in this tightly contested Serie B fixture.

Main risk

The main risk is that Sport Recife's higher BTTS rate and attacking threats from players like Perotti could disrupt Criciuma's defensive control, potentially leading to a closer contest or unexpected goals.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Criciuma's disciplined defense and superior recent form position them well to control this match, while Sport Recife's attacking threats require careful containment to prevent an upset.”

Key Data Signals

Criciuma to Win evidence

Criciuma ranks 4th with 27 points, slightly ahead of Sport Recife in 8th with 25 points.

Criciuma concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showcasing strong defensive form.

Sport Recife has a higher BTTS rate (60%) but concedes twice as many goals as Criciuma.

Criciuma averages more shots per game (14.2) and corners (6.6), indicating attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Criciuma to Win notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.38, suggesting moderate scoring.
  • Both teams have a 20% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating a trend towards tighter, lower-scoring games with controlled tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Criciuma1.2
Avg goals scored
Sport Recife1
Criciuma0.4
Avg goals conceded
Sport Recife0.8
Criciuma40%
BTTS rate
Sport Recife60%
Criciuma20%
Over 2.5 goals
Sport Recife20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both teams have a low rate of over 2.5 goals (20%), and Criciuma's stronger defense suggests a controlled scoring environment. Sport Recife's higher BTTS rate (60%) contrasts with Criciuma's 40%, indicating a moderate chance of both teams scoring but leaning towards a low-scoring match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Criciuma

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 5D 0L
27 Jun 2026H São Bernardo1-0
24 Jun 2026A America Mineiro1-0
16 Jun 2026H Ceara1-1
06 Jun 2026H Londrina1-0
30 May 2026A Avai2-1

Sport Recife

LDDDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
28 Jun 2026A Fortaleza EC1-2
19 Jun 2026H Atletico Goianiense1-1
14 Jun 2026A São Bernardo0-0
11 Jun 2026H Athletic Club1-1
31 May 2026H Nautico Recife2-0
Market aligned with main pickCriciuma to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 52% · edge +21.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Criciuma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Criciuma's recent form is superior, accumulating 13 points compared to Sport Recife's 6 in the same period. Their defensive record of 0.4 goals conceded per game underpins this form, while Sport Recife's 0.8 goals conceded and lower points tally highlight vulnerabilities.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Criciuma27157626
8Sport Recife25156727
Criciuma's 4th place standing with 27 points gives them a slight edge over 8th placed Sport Recife with 25 points. While the table is tight, Criciuma's higher rank reflects better consistency and momentum in the Serie B campaign.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCriciuma to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 52% · edge +21.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Criciuma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The for Criciuma to win reflect their strong of 74%, indicating a price-sensitive market rather than clear value. The current pricing aligns with Criciuma's defensive solidity and home advantage, but any drift in their favor would enhance value appeal.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Criciuma6.6
Avg corners for
Sport Recife5.25
Criciuma9.2
Avg total corners
Sport Recife9.25
Criciuma1.8
Avg yellow cards
Sport Recife2.5
Criciuma14.2
Avg shots
Sport Recife13.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 64% · edge -3.7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Criciuma's average of 6.6 corners and 14.2 shots per game highlights their attacking pressure, while Sport Recife's 5.25 corners and 13.25 shots show a slightly less aggressive approach. The card averages (Criciuma 1.8, Sport Recife 2.5 yellows) suggest a moderately physical game with potential for tactical fouling.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Criciuma wins
4Draws
2Sport Recife wins
10 Sep 2023Sport Recife v Criciuma3-3
25 May 2023Criciuma v Sport Recife1-0
03 Aug 2022Sport Recife v Criciuma1-1
23 Apr 2022Criciuma v Sport Recife1-1
09 Nov 2019Sport Recife v Criciuma1-0
11 Aug 2019Criciuma v Sport Recife1-0
Market aligned with main pickCriciuma to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 52% · edge +21.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The head-to-head record over eight matches shows a moderate average of 2.38 goals per game, reflecting balanced encounters. This sample supports expectations of a competitive match with neither side dominating historically, emphasizing current form and tactical setup as decisive.
Season team stats

Serie B

Criciuma15
Played
Sport Recife15
Criciuma1.1
Avg goals for
Sport Recife1.2
Criciuma0.7
Avg goals against
Sport Recife0.7
Criciuma6
Clean sheets
Sport Recife7
Market aligned with main pickCriciuma to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 52% · edge +21.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Criciuma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over the season, Criciuma's attack averages 1.2 goals per game with a strong defense conceding only 0.4 goals, supporting their winning chances. Sport Recife's attack is slightly less potent at 1 goal per game, with a defense conceding double the goals, indicating a less balanced profile.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Criciuma Over 2.5
20%Sport Recife Over 2.5
2.38H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.38, suggesting moderate scoring. Both teams have a 20% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating a trend towards tighter, lower-scoring games with controlled tempo.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Criciuma v Sport Recife prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Londrina v CRBSerie B · Sat 04 Jul 20:00Novorizontino v Atletico GoianienseSerie B · Sat 04 Jul 20:00

Competition and hubs

related match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre