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Criciuma crestCriciuma
v
Operario-PR crestOperario-PR

Serie B | Mon 21 Sep, 23:30

Criciuma v Operario-PR Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 08:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Criciuma hosting Operario-PR in a contest where Operario-PR arrives with stronger recent form and a tactical edge. Operario-PR has collected 9 points recently compared to Criciuma's 3, showing more attacking threat with 1.8 goals per game versus 0.6 for Criciuma. Criciuma's defense has been more vulnerable, conceding twice per match on average, while Operario-PR has a tighter backline. The away side's ability to control tempo and capitalize on chances makes them a confident pick despite playing away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Operario-PR to Win

  • Operario-PR has a 70% to win with strong value at 5.5 .
  • Operario-PR averages 1.8 goals per game, triple Criciuma's 0.6 scoring rate.
  • Criciuma concedes 2 goals per match, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Operario-PR's recent form yields 9 points versus Criciuma's 3 in the last fixtures.
  • Operario-PR's Boschilia is a key attacking threat with 12 goals and 1.11 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Operario-PR's superior recent form and attacking efficiency underpin the model's 70% win probability. Their ability to score more and concede less than Criciuma creates a clear football advantage. The at 5.5 offer significant value given the implied chance is only 18.2%. This mismatch in form and defensive solidity supports backing Operario-PR despite the away venue. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent form advantageOperario-PR has 9 points vs Criciuma's 3
Strong positive
Goal scoring rateOperario-PR 1.8 goals/game vs Criciuma 0.6
Strong positive
Defensive recordCriciuma concedes 2 goals/game, Operario-PR concedes 1
Positive
Value edge51.8% positive edge at 5.5 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Operario-PR's recent attacking form and defensive resilience make them the logical choice to win this match. Their ability to convert chances and restrict Criciuma's scoring chances is backed by data showing a clear edge in goals and points accrued. This combination of form and efficiency should see Operario-PR secure the victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Operario-PR's consistent goal threat and defensive discipline give them a tactical and statistical edge in this fixture, making them a compelling away win candidate.”

Key Data Signals

Operario-PR to Win evidence

Operario-PR has a 70% to win with strong value at 5.5 .

Operario-PR averages 1.8 goals per game, triple Criciuma's 0.6 scoring rate.

Criciuma concedes 2 goals per match, indicating defensive frailty.

Operario-PR's recent form yields 9 points versus Criciuma's 3 in the last fixtures.

What To Watch In The Data

Operario-PR to Win notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.11, suggesting moderate scoring.
  • Operario-PR's 60% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches supports an expectation of an open game with multiple goals, aligning with attacking tendencies and defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Criciuma0.6
Avg goals scored
Operario-PR1.8
Criciuma2
Avg goals conceded
Operario-PR1
Criciuma20%
BTTS rate
Operario-PR60%
Criciuma40%
Over 2.5 goals
Operario-PR60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Operario-PR's higher scoring rate and Criciuma's defensive struggles suggest a match with goals. Operario-PR's 60% over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate contrast with Criciuma's lower figures, indicating a good chance of goals from both sides and an open game.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Criciuma

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
13 Sep 2026A Atletico Goianiense0-4
09 Sep 2026H Juventude0-2
04 Sep 2026H Cuiaba2-0
30 Aug 2026A CRB1-2
23 Aug 2026H Fortaleza EC0-2

Operario-PR

DWWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
15 Sep 2026A Nautico Recife3-3
10 Sep 2026H CRB3-0
06 Sep 2026A Londrina2-1
31 Aug 2026A Fortaleza EC1-1
23 Aug 2026H Vila Nova0-0
Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Operario-PR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Operario-PR's recent form is markedly better, with 9 points in recent matches compared to Criciuma's 3. This form disparity is reflected in their higher goal output and tighter defense, suggesting Operario-PR is in better shape to claim victory in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Criciuma472813873
8Operario-PR442812883
Operario-PR sits slightly below Criciuma in the table (8th vs 5th) but only 3 points behind, indicating a close competition. This proximity adds motivation for Operario-PR to secure an away win to close the gap, increasing the fixture's competitive edge.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
Operario-PR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
The of 5.5 for Operario-PR to win represent strong value given the model's 70% probability. This large indicates the market underestimates Operario-PR's chances, making this a price-sensitive but attractive bet. Any shortening of would further confirm market .
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Criciuma7
Avg corners for
Operario-PR2.2
Criciuma9.6
Avg total corners
Operario-PR9.2
Criciuma2.4
Avg yellow cards
Operario-PR3.4
Criciuma13.8
Avg shots
Operario-PR12
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Criciuma averages more corners (7) and fewer cards (2.4 yellows) than Operario-PR, who have fewer corners (2.2) but more yellows (3.4). Operario-PR's shot accuracy (3.8 SOT) slightly surpasses Criciuma's (3.6), reflecting efficient attacking pressure despite less territorial control.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Criciuma wins
2Draws
6Operario-PR wins
25 May 2026Operario-PR v Criciuma1-1
02 Aug 2025Operario-PR v Criciuma1-0
05 Apr 2025Criciuma v Operario-PR1-2
17 Aug 2022Criciuma v Operario-PR2-0
07 May 2022Operario-PR v Criciuma2-0
05 Nov 2019Operario-PR v Criciuma1-0
Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The nine previous meetings between these teams show an average of just over two goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While the sample is limited, it suggests that Operario-PR can compete effectively and that goals are likely, supporting the away win pick with goal potential.
Season team stats

Serie B

Criciuma28
Played
Operario-PR28
Criciuma1
Avg goals for
Operario-PR1.4
Criciuma0.9
Avg goals against
Operario-PR1.3
Criciuma12
Clean sheets
Operario-PR10
Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
Operario-PR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Season-long stats show Operario-PR scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding only 1, indicating a balanced and effective team. Criciuma's lower scoring (0.6) and higher concession rate (2) highlight defensive vulnerabilities and offensive inefficiency, supporting the away win prediction.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Criciuma Over 2.5
60%Operario-PR Over 2.5
2.11H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.11, suggesting moderate scoring. Operario-PR's 60% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches supports an expectation of an open game with multiple goals, aligning with attacking tendencies and defensive gaps.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.