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Corinthians crestCorinthians
v
Cruzeiro crestCruzeiro

Serie A | Sun 16 Aug, 23:30

Corinthians v Cruzeiro Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Corinthians and Cruzeiro meet in a Serie A clash where both sides have shown attacking intent and resilience. Corinthians have conceded just 0.4 goals per game recently, while scoring 1.8, indicating a solid defense but also offensive capability. Cruzeiro, sitting just above Corinthians in the standings, have a slightly higher concession rate but maintain a decent goal output. Both teams have been involved in matches with goals at both ends, making this a tactical battle with offensive threats on either side. The fixture promises open moments given the attacking profiles and recent form of both teams.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Corinthians concede only 0.4 goals per game recently, showing defensive strength but still score 1.8 on average.
  • Cruzeiro have a higher BTTS rate at 60%, indicating frequent goals conceded and scored.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, reflecting open games.
  • H2H average goals stand at 2.3 over the last 10 meetings, supporting goal involvement from both sides.
  • Top attackers like Wesley Gassova and Yuri Alberto provide goal threats for their teams.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 63.3% chance of both teams scoring, well above the 50% implied by current , indicating positive value. Both Corinthians and Cruzeiro have shown consistent attacking output and concede goals at a rate that supports BTTS. The presence of key attackers such as Wesley Gassova, with high shots and shots on target per 90 minutes, and Corinthians' Yuri Alberto, further strengthens the likelihood of goals from both sides. Defensive solidity is balanced by offensive potency, making BTTS a strong tactical and statistical call.

Model Chance63.3%
Strong positive
Corinthians Goals For/Against1.8 scored, 0.4 conceded per game
Positive
Cruzeiro BTTS Rate60%
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals2.3 goals per match
Positive
Key Player Attacking StatsWesley Gassova 2.9 SOT/90, Yuri Alberto 1.07 SOT/90
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Corinthians and Cruzeiro have demonstrated attacking capabilities alongside vulnerabilities at the back, making a match with goals at both ends likely. The presence of prolific attackers and a history of open games between these sides supports the BTTS selection as a tactically sound and data-backed choice.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Player attacking roles and match dynamics

“This fixture features two teams with clear offensive threats and some defensive frailties, creating a fertile ground for goals from both sides. The attacking roles of Wesley Gassova and Yuri Alberto are particularly influential in shaping this expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Corinthians concede only 0.4 goals per game recently, showing defensive strength but still score 1.8 on average.

Cruzeiro have a higher BTTS rate at 60%, indicating frequent goals conceded and scored.

Both teams have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, reflecting open games.

H2H average goals stand at 2.3 over the last 10 meetings, supporting goal involvement from both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last 10 matches between these teams, the average goals per game is 2.3, with a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches for both sides.
  • This trend indicates a moderate tempo and openness in their encounters, supporting the expectation of multiple goals and BTTS outcomes.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Corinthians1.8
Avg goals scored
Cruzeiro1.4
Corinthians0.4
Avg goals conceded
Cruzeiro0.8
Corinthians40%
BTTS rate
Cruzeiro60%
Corinthians40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Recent form shows Corinthians scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 0.4 per game, while Cruzeiro scores 1.4 and concedes 0.8. Cruzeiro's 60% BTTS rate and Corinthians' 40% indicate a strong likelihood of goals at both ends. The H2H average of 2.3 goals per match further supports the expectation of mutual scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Corinthians

WDDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
09 Aug 2026A RB Bragantino2-0
30 Jul 2026H Atletico Paranaense0-0
26 Jul 2026A Bahia1-1
23 Jul 2026H Remo3-0
30 May 2026A Gremio3-1

Cruzeiro

WWLWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
09 Aug 2026H Mirassol3-1
31 Jul 2026A Coritiba1-0
26 Jul 2026H Botafogo0-1
23 Jul 2026A Internacional2-1
01 Jun 2026H Fluminense1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 77% · edge +2.5 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Corinthians to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Cruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Corinthians have accumulated 11 points recently with a strong defensive record, while Cruzeiro has 10 points and a higher BTTS rate. Both teams have shown the ability to score and concede, reflecting balanced recent form that supports the likelihood of goals from both sides in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Cruzeiro3322967-1
7Corinthians32228864
Cruzeiro sits 5th and Corinthians 7th in the Serie A standings, separated by a single point, indicating a closely matched contest. The proximity in the table suggests both teams are motivated to secure points, likely encouraging offensive efforts and increasing the chance of goals at both ends.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Corinthians to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Cruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively with implying a 50% chance, while the model suggests a 63.3% probability, indicating positive value. The price reflects a cautious market but does not fully account for the attacking tendencies and defensive concessions of both teams, making this a favorable angle to consider.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Corinthians4.2
Avg corners for
Cruzeiro5.4
Corinthians8.2
Avg total corners
Cruzeiro8.4
Corinthians2.8
Avg yellow cards
Cruzeiro3.2
Corinthians12
Avg shots
Cruzeiro15.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Cruzeiro averages 5.4 corners and 15.8 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure, while Corinthians average 4.2 corners and 12 shots. Both teams have moderate card averages, reflecting a competitive but not overly aggressive style, which supports an open game with chances and set-piece opportunities.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Corinthians wins
3Draws
4Cruzeiro wins
25 Feb 2026Cruzeiro v Corinthians1-1
14 Dec 2025Corinthians v Cruzeiro1-2
11 Dec 2025Cruzeiro v Corinthians0-1
23 Nov 2025Cruzeiro v Corinthians3-0
23 Jul 2025Corinthians v Cruzeiro0-0
20 Nov 2024Corinthians v Cruzeiro2-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Cruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The head-to-head record over the last 10 matches shows an average of 2.3 goals per game, reflecting a history of relatively open contests. While not overwhelmingly high scoring, the data supports the likelihood of goals from both teams, making BTTS a reasonable expectation based on past meetings.
Season team stats

Serie A

Corinthians22
Played
Cruzeiro22
Corinthians1.1
Avg goals for
Cruzeiro1.4
Corinthians0.9
Avg goals against
Cruzeiro1.4
Corinthians10
Clean sheets
Cruzeiro5
Best odds for this sectionCorinthians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 52% · edge +9.6 pts
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Cruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
The season-long data shows Corinthians with a solid defense conceding only 0.4 goals recently but maintaining 1.8 goals scored, while Cruzeiro's 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded align with a pattern of open play. Both teams' BTTS rates and goal averages reinforce the tactical expectation of mutual scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Corinthians Over 2.5
40%Cruzeiro Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 matches between these teams, the average goals per game is 2.3, with a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches for both sides. This trend indicates a moderate tempo and openness in their encounters, supporting the expectation of multiple goals and BTTS outcomes.

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