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Carlisle crestCarlisle
v
Southend crestSouthend

National League | Sat 12 Sep, 17:30

Carlisle v Southend Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Southend arrives at Carlisle in good form, sitting third in the National League with 13 points from recent matches, while Carlisle is mid-table with 8 points. Southend's consistent attacking play and tactical discipline have helped them secure valuable away results this season. Carlisle's defense has been somewhat vulnerable, conceding 1.4 goals per game, which Southend's efficient offense, averaging 1.8 goals per match, can exploit. The fixture promises a competitive battle with Southend aiming to extend their strong league position and Carlisle looking to improve their standing at home.

BT4Y best bet

Southend to Win

  • Southend ranks 3rd in the league with 13 points, showing strong form.
  • Carlisle has conceded 1.4 goals per game, indicating defensive frailties.
  • Southend averages 1.8 goals scored per match, demonstrating effective attack.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals, suggesting open play.
  • Southend's away performances have been consistent, supporting their win chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Southend to Win is supported by a of 46.4%, indicating a strong likelihood of victory based on recent form and season stats. The of 2.75 offer positive value with a 10% edge over the implied market chance. Southend's higher league ranking and better points tally reflect their superior consistency. Both teams' tendency for matches with multiple goals suggests Southend can capitalize offensively against Carlisle's defense. No data limitations affect in this pick, making it a solid betting option.

Model chance46.4%
Strong positive
Implied market chance36.4%
Positive
Value edge10%
Strong positive
Southend league rank and points3rd with 13 points
Strong positive
Carlisle defensive record1.4 goals conceded per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Southend's consistent form and higher league standing make them the tactical and statistical favorite to win this match. Their ability to score and capitalize on Carlisle's defensive vulnerabilities underpins this selection. Expect Southend to control key phases and secure the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Southend's blend of attacking efficiency and solid away form positions them well to overcome Carlisle's defensive challenges. Their league momentum and tactical discipline give them a clear edge in this contest.”

Key Data Signals

Southend to Win evidence

Southend ranks 3rd in the league with 13 points, showing strong form.

Carlisle has conceded 1.4 goals per game, indicating defensive frailties.

Southend averages 1.8 goals scored per match, demonstrating effective attack.

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals, suggesting open play.

What To Watch In The Data

Southend to Win notes

  • The last six head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, aligning with both teams' over 2.5 goals rate of 60%.
  • This trend suggests a match tempo conducive to multiple scoring opportunities, with transitions and open play likely contributing to goal chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Carlisle2.2
Avg goals scored
Southend1.8
Carlisle1.4
Avg goals conceded
Southend1.4
Carlisle100%
BTTS rate
Southend80%
Carlisle60%
Over 2.5 goals
Southend60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Carlisle scoring 2.2 goals per game and Southend 1.8. This trend indicates an open game with attacking intent from both sides, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals and supporting a dynamic match environment.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSouthend to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 36% · edge +10 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Southend Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The of 2.75 for Southend to Win reflect a market underestimation compared to the model's 46.4% chance, offering positive value. This price sensitivity suggests bettors can consider standard stakes with , as the model identifies a clear edge without major price warnings.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Carlisle

LWDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 2L
05 Sep 2026A Boreham Wood1-2
31 Aug 2026H Scunthorpe4-2
28 Aug 2026A Wealdstone1-1
22 Aug 2026H AFC Hornchurch4-1
15 Aug 2026A Yeovil Town1-1

Southend

WDLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 1L
05 Sep 2026H Yeovil Town3-2
31 Aug 2026A Woking1-1
28 Aug 2026H Kidderminster Harriers1-3
22 Aug 2026A Solihull Moors3-1
15 Aug 2026H Scunthorpe1-0
Market aligned with main pickSouthend to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 36% · edge +10 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Southend Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Southend's recent form is strong, accumulating 10 points compared to Carlisle's 8, reflecting better consistency and momentum. This form advantage is crucial in a tightly contested league and supports Southend's chances to secure a win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Carlisle wins
2Draws
1Southend wins
07 Mar 2026Carlisle v Southend2-2
08 Nov 2025Southend v Carlisle1-2
03 Apr 2021Southend v Carlisle0-2
19 Sep 2020Carlisle v Southend2-0
28 Feb 2015Southend v Carlisle2-0
23 Aug 2014Carlisle v Southend1-1
Market aligned with main pickSouthend to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 36% · edge +10 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The six previous meetings between Carlisle and Southend have averaged 2.5 goals per game, indicating a moderately high-scoring rivalry. This historical data supports expectations of an open match with goal-scoring opportunities for both sides, though recent form and league position favor Southend.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

National League

Carlisle6
Played
Southend6
Carlisle2.2
Avg goals for
Southend2
Carlisle1.7
Avg goals against
Southend1.3
Carlisle0
Clean sheets
Southend1
Market aligned with main pickSouthend to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 36% · edge +10 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Southend Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Southend's season stats show a balanced attack and defense, with 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, indicating effective overall play. Carlisle's higher goals conceded rate suggests defensive vulnerabilities that Southend can exploit to gain the upper hand.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Southend1364114
14Carlisle862223
Southend's third-place standing with 13 points highlights their status as promotion contenders, applying pressure to maintain form. Carlisle's 14th position with 8 points reflects mid-table stability but less upward momentum, influencing the match's competitive dynamics.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Carlisle Over 2.5
60%Southend Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The last six head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, aligning with both teams' over 2.5 goals rate of 60%. This trend suggests a match tempo conducive to multiple scoring opportunities, with transitions and open play likely contributing to goal chances.

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