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Worthing crestWorthing
v
Barrow crestBarrow

National League | Sat 12 Sep, 12:30

Worthing v Barrow Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Worthing face Barrow in National League on Sat 12 Sep, 12:30. Worthing come in with 4 recent points and 1.6 goals per match, while Barrow have 5 points and 1.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.7, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 59%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Worthing and 80% for Barrow, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Worthing are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Barrow at 1.6.
  • BTTS rates of 80% for Worthing and 80% for Barrow show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Worthing and 80% for Barrow, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 59% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Worthing and 80%.Visible data support
Positive
Worthing are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Worthing and 80% for Barrow, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Worthing and 80% for Barrow, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Worthing are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Barrow at 1.6.

BTTS rates of 80% for Worthing and 80% for Barrow show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Worthing1.6
Avg goals scored
Barrow1.6
Worthing2
Avg goals conceded
Barrow1.4
Worthing80%
BTTS rate
Barrow80%
Worthing80%
Over 2.5 goals
Barrow80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Barrow Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Barrow to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Worthing Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 46%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Worthing to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Worthing

DLLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
05 Sep 2026A AFC Fylde2-2
31 Aug 2026H Boreham Wood2-3
28 Aug 2026A Tamworth2-3
22 Aug 2026H Wealdstone1-0
15 Aug 2026H Forest Green1-2

Barrow

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
05 Sep 2026H Sutton Utd3-0
31 Aug 2026A Kidderminster Harriers1-1
28 Aug 2026H Yeovil Town1-2
22 Aug 2026A Harrogate Town2-2
15 Aug 2026H AFC Hornchurch1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Barrow Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Barrow to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Worthing Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 46%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Worthing to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Worthing wins
0Draws
0Barrow wins
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Barrow to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Worthing to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Over 2.5 Goals, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

National League

Worthing6
Played
Barrow6
Worthing1.8
Avg goals for
Barrow1.3
Worthing2
Avg goals against
Barrow1.5
Worthing1
Clean sheets
Barrow1
Best odds for this sectionBarrow Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
Barrow to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Worthing Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 46%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Worthing to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Season data supports Barrow Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
16Worthing76213-1
18Barrow56123-1
Worthing sit in position 16, while Barrow sit in position 18, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Worthing Over 2.5
80%Barrow Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Worthing sit at 80% and Barrow sit at 80%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Betting context

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