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Harrogate Town crestHarrogate Town
v
Tamworth crestTamworth

National League | Sat 12 Sep, 12:30

Harrogate Town v Tamworth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Harrogate Town hosts Tamworth in a National League clash where attacking intent is expected to shape the contest. Harrogate Town sits second in the league with a strong points tally and an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting their offensive potency. Tamworth, positioned 19th, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game and featuring in 100% of their matches with over 2.5 goals. Both sides have shown a tendency for open games with high scoring, setting the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter under neutral conditions.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Harrogate Town has an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season.
  • Tamworth’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals 100% of the time.
  • Tamworth concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Harrogate Town ranks 2nd in the league with strong attacking output.
  • The model estimates a 58% chance for over 3.5 goals, above the market implied chance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 58% probability, significantly higher than the 44.4% implied by current . Both teams have demonstrated a strong propensity for high-scoring games, with Tamworth’s defensive record particularly leaky. Harrogate Town’s offensive consistency and Tamworth’s defensive struggles combine to create a favorable environment for multiple goals. The level of 73% supports this selection as a well-founded choice for bettors seeking a high-scoring match.

Model Probability58% chance of Over 3.5 Goals
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance44.4%
Neutral
Value Edge+13.6%
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesHarrogate 80%, Tamworth 100%
Strong positive
Defensive WeaknessTamworth concedes 2.6 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Harrogate Town’s strong attack facing Tamworth’s porous defense, creating multiple goal-scoring chances. The statistical trends and league positions suggest a high-scoring match, making Over 3.5 Goals a tactically and data-supported selection for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“This fixture features a clash of Harrogate’s attacking efficiency against Tamworth’s defensive vulnerabilities, making a high-goal outcome very plausible given recent scoring patterns and league form.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Harrogate Town has an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season.

Tamworth’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals 100% of the time.

Tamworth concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Harrogate Town ranks 2nd in the league with strong attacking output.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In recent matches, Tamworth’s games have consistently gone over 2.5 goals, while Harrogate Town’s matches have done so 80% of the time.
  • This trend over the current season suggests a fast tempo and open play, conducive to multiple goal opportunities and a lively attacking contest.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Harrogate Town2
Avg goals scored
Tamworth1.8
Harrogate Town1.4
Avg goals conceded
Tamworth2.6
Harrogate Town80%
BTTS rate
Tamworth100%
Harrogate Town80%
Over 2.5 goals
Tamworth100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +13.6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Both teams have consistently participated in high-scoring matches this season, with Tamworth’s games always exceeding 2.5 goals and Harrogate Town’s matches doing so 80% of the time. This trend, combined with Tamworth’s defensive frailty, points to a strong likelihood of multiple goals and BTTS scenarios.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Harrogate Town to WinBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Harrogate Town Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Tamworth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Tamworth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively with implying a 44.4% chance, while the model estimates a 58% probability, indicating clear value. This discrepancy suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, supported by both teams’ recent scoring and conceding patterns.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Harrogate Town

WWLDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 1L
05 Sep 2026A Scunthorpe2-0
31 Aug 2026H Gateshead2-1
28 Aug 2026A Aldershot Town1-3
22 Aug 2026H Barrow2-2
15 Aug 2026A Wealdstone3-1

Tamworth

DLWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
05 Sep 2026H Boston United2-2
31 Aug 2026A Yeovil Town2-3
28 Aug 2026H Worthing3-2
22 Aug 2026A FC Halifax Town1-4
15 Aug 2026H AFC Fylde1-2
Best odds for this sectionHarrogate Town to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Harrogate Town Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Tamworth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Tamworth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Harrogate Town has accumulated 10 points recently with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, reflecting consistent offensive output. Tamworth’s recent form includes 4 points but features a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities and propensity for open, high-scoring games.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Harrogate Town wins
0Draws
0Tamworth wins
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Harrogate Town to WinBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Tamworth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
No previous meetings exist between Harrogate Town and Tamworth to provide direct head-to-head insights. Therefore, current season form and defensive/offensive statistics are more relevant indicators for predicting a high-scoring outcome in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

National League

Harrogate Town6
Played
Tamworth6
Harrogate Town2.5
Avg goals for
Tamworth2
Harrogate Town1.5
Avg goals against
Tamworth2.7
Harrogate Town1
Clean sheets
Tamworth0
Best odds for this sectionHarrogate Town to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Harrogate Town Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Tamworth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Tamworth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Season-long data shows Harrogate Town scoring 2 goals per game and conceding 1.4, while Tamworth scores 1.8 but concedes 2.6 on average. These statistics underline a fixture prone to multiple goals, with Tamworth’s defensive record particularly contributing to the likelihood of Over 3.5 Goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Harrogate Town1364116
19Tamworth56123-4
Harrogate Town’s strong 2nd place standing with 13 points contrasts with Tamworth’s 19th place and 5 points, reflecting differing team qualities. The league positions suggest Harrogate’s attacking control and Tamworth’s defensive struggles, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Harrogate Town Over 2.5
100%Tamworth Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In recent matches, Tamworth’s games have consistently gone over 2.5 goals, while Harrogate Town’s matches have done so 80% of the time. This trend over the current season suggests a fast tempo and open play, conducive to multiple goal opportunities and a lively attacking contest.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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