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Bucaramanga crestBucaramanga
v
Independiente Medellin crestIndependiente Medellin

Primera A | Fri 18 Sep, 00:00

Bucaramanga v Independiente Medellin Stats

Data last updated: Thu 17 Sep 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primera A clash features Bucaramanga and Independiente Medellin, two closely ranked sides separated by just two points. Both teams have shown attacking intent recently, with Bucaramanga scoring 1.6 goals per game and Independiente Medellin 1.8. The match promises an open contest as both sides have a history of goals and are eager to secure vital points in a tight league table. Tactical setups suggest offensive-minded play, increasing the likelihood of both teams finding the net in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Bucaramanga scores in 80% of recent matches, showing strong home attacking form.
  • Independiente Medellin has a 60% BTTS rate, indicating consistent goal threat.
  • Both teams average over 11 shots per game, reflecting offensive pressure.
  • H2H meetings average 3.1 goals, supporting an open game with goals at both ends.
  • Independiente Medellin’s high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) suggests attacking matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 76% probability, well above the implied market chance of 52.4%, indicating strong value. Both teams demonstrate solid attacking output and concede regularly, with Bucaramanga scoring 1.6 and conceding 1 goal per game, while Independiente Medellin scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2. Their recent form and historical head-to-head average of 3.1 goals per match underline the likelihood of goals at both ends. This combination of attacking potency and defensive vulnerability supports the BTTS pick confidently.

Model Probability76%
Strong positive
Bucaramanga Goals For/Against1.6 scored, 1 conceded per game
Positive
Independiente Medellin Goals For/Against1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.1 goals per match
Positive
Market Implied Chance52.4%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have demonstrated consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making Both Teams to Score a logical choice. Bucaramanga’s home scoring and Independiente Medellin’s attacking pressure combine to suggest goals at both ends. The data supports an open match with offensive opportunities for both sides.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture features two sides with attacking intent and defensive gaps, creating a fertile ground for goals at both ends. The statistical trends and player profiles align well with a Both Teams to Score outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Bucaramanga scores in 80% of recent matches, showing strong home attacking form.

Independiente Medellin has a 60% BTTS rate, indicating consistent goal threat.

Both teams average over 11 shots per game, reflecting offensive pressure.

H2H meetings average 3.1 goals, supporting an open game with goals at both ends.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 3.1, indicating a trend toward high-scoring games.
  • Independiente Medellin’s 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Bucaramanga’s 40% rate suggest a tempo and attacking style conducive to multiple goals, aligning with the BTTS pick.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bucaramanga1.6
Avg corners for
Independiente Medellin2.25
Bucaramanga4.6
Avg total corners
Independiente Medellin7.5
Bucaramanga3.8
Avg yellow cards
Independiente Medellin3.25
Bucaramanga11.4
Avg shots
Independiente Medellin14.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 35% vs implied 50% · edge -15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams generate decent attacking pressure, with Bucaramanga averaging 1.6 corners and Independiente Medellin 2.25 per game. Shot volumes are high, with Independiente Medellin averaging 14.25 shots and Bucaramanga 11.4, supporting sustained offensive play. Discipline is moderate, with yellow cards around 3.5 per game, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bucaramanga1.6
Avg goals scored
Independiente Medellin1.8
Bucaramanga1
Avg goals conceded
Independiente Medellin1.2
Bucaramanga80%
BTTS rate
Independiente Medellin60%
Bucaramanga40%
Over 2.5 goals
Independiente Medellin80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent data shows Bucaramanga scores in 80% of matches and Independiente Medellin in 60%, with both conceding regularly. Their head-to-head average of 3.1 goals per game and Independiente Medellin’s 80% over 2.5 goals rate indicate open, attacking games conducive to BTTS outcomes.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Independiente Medellin to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Bucaramanga to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Bucaramanga Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively with implying just over a 50% chance, while the model estimates a 76% probability. This significant highlights the market underestimating the likelihood of both sides scoring, making BTTS a compelling selection with positive expected value.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bucaramanga

WDDWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
13 Sep 2026A Deportivo Pereira3-1
31 Aug 2026A Deportivo Cali1-1
22 Aug 2026A Deportes Tolima0-0
09 Aug 2026A Alianza Valledupar3-2
04 Aug 2026H Cucuta1-1

Independiente Medellin

LWWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 3L
13 Sep 2026A Chico1-2
04 Sep 2026A Deportivo Pereira3-0
30 Aug 2026H Llaneros2-1
23 Aug 2026H Cucuta0-1
05 Aug 2026A Deportes Tolima3-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 60% · edge +11.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Independiente Medellin to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Bucaramanga to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Bucaramanga Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Both teams have collected 9 points recently, with Bucaramanga scoring 1.6 goals per game and Independiente Medellin 1.8. Bucaramanga’s 80% BTTS rate and Independiente Medellin’s 60% indicate a strong trend of both sides scoring. This recent form data reinforces the expectation of an open game with goals at both ends.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Bucaramanga wins
0Draws
7Independiente Medellin wins
01 Mar 2026Independiente Medellin v Bucaramanga1-2
13 Jan 2026Independiente Medellin v Bucaramanga3-1
29 Oct 2025Independiente Medellin v Bucaramanga3-0
10 May 2025Bucaramanga v Independiente Medellin2-0
04 Nov 2024Bucaramanga v Independiente Medellin2-3
14 Apr 2024Independiente Medellin v Bucaramanga1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Independiente Medellin to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Bucaramanga to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The ten previous meetings between these teams have averaged 3.1 goals per game, demonstrating a history of open contests with goals from both sides. This head-to-head trend provides solid background support for the expectation that both teams will score again in this fixture.
Season team stats

Primera A

Bucaramanga26
Played
Independiente Medellin26
Bucaramanga1.4
Avg goals for
Independiente Medellin1.5
Bucaramanga1
Avg goals against
Independiente Medellin1.2
Bucaramanga9
Clean sheets
Independiente Medellin7
Best odds for this sectionIndependiente Medellin to WinBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +12.1 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Bucaramanga to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Bucaramanga Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Season-long stats show Bucaramanga averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, while Independiente Medellin averages 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Both teams’ attacking output combined with defensive vulnerabilities supports the BTTS market, reflecting consistent scoring and conceding patterns throughout the season.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Independiente Medellin26197572
13Bucaramanga23195866
5Independiente Medellin1575025
6Bucaramanga1373404
Bucaramanga sits 6th and Independiente Medellin 5th in the league, separated by just two points. This close competition heightens the stakes, encouraging both sides to attack and seek goals to secure vital points, supporting an open match with scoring opportunities for both teams.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Bucaramanga Over 2.5
80%Independiente Medellin Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 3.1, indicating a trend toward high-scoring games. Independiente Medellin’s 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Bucaramanga’s 40% rate suggest a tempo and attacking style conducive to multiple goals, aligning with the BTTS pick.

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