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Chico crestChico
v
Atletico Nacional crestAtletico Nacional

Primera A | Sat 17 Oct, 20:00

Chico v Atletico Nacional Stats

Data last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026, 16:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chico face Atletico Nacional in Primera A on Sat 17 Oct, 20:00. Chico come in with 8 recent points and 1.4 goals per match, while Atletico Nacional have 12 points and 2.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Atletico Nacional to Win

  • At 1.57, Atletico Nacional to Win implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 65%.
  • Atletico Nacional have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for Chico.
  • Atletico Nacional have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Atletico Nacional to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Chico sit 16 in the table, while Atletico Nacional sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 65% for Atletico Nacional to Win sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. Atletico Nacional have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for Chico.

Model chance vs price65% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Neutral
Atletico Nacional have the stronger recent points return, taking 12.Visible data support
Positive
Atletico Nacional have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Atletico Nacional Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Atletico Nacional have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for Chico. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Atletico Nacional to Win evidence

Atletico Nacional have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for Chico.

Atletico Nacional have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Atletico Nacional Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Chico sit 16 in the table, while Atletico Nacional sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Nacional to Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Chico5
    Avg corners for
    Atletico Nacional7.4
    Chico9.8
    Avg total corners
    Atletico Nacional10
    Chico2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Atletico Nacional3
    Chico8.4
    Avg shots
    Atletico Nacional16.4

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    Useful next reads

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Chico1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Atletico Nacional2.2
    Chico1
    Avg goals conceded
    Atletico Nacional0.8
    Chico60%
    BTTS rate
    Atletico Nacional60%
    Chico60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Atletico Nacional60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Nacional to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 64% · edge +1.2 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Atletico Nacional Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Atletico Nacional to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Chico

    LWWDD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    16 Sep 2026H Alianza Valledupar1-2
    13 Sep 2026H Independiente Medellin2-1
    05 Sep 2026H Once Caldas2-0
    30 Aug 2026A Águilas Doradas2-2
    26 Aug 2026H Fortaleza FC0-0

    Atletico Nacional

    WWWWL
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 108W 0D 2L
    13 Sep 2026H Águilas Doradas2-0
    30 Aug 2026A Alianza Valledupar5-1
    27 Aug 2026H Deportivo Cali2-1
    23 Aug 2026A Fortaleza FC2-1
    10 Aug 2026A America de Cali0-1
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Nacional to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 64% · edge +1.2 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Atletico Nacional Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Chico wins
    1Draws
    8Atletico Nacional wins
    17 Jan 2026Atletico Nacional v Chico4-0
    06 Oct 2025Chico v Atletico Nacional1-1
    17 Apr 2025Atletico Nacional v Chico4-1
    29 Sep 2024Atletico Nacional v Chico6-2
    17 Mar 2024Chico v Atletico Nacional2-1
    22 Oct 2023Chico v Atletico Nacional1-3
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Nacional to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 64% · edge +1.2 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Atletico Nacional to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primera A

    Chico27
    Played
    Atletico Nacional31
    Chico0.8
    Avg goals for
    Atletico Nacional2
    Chico1.7
    Avg goals against
    Atletico Nacional0.8
    Chico6
    Clean sheets
    Atletico Nacional11
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Nacional to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 64% · edge +1.2 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Atletico Nacional Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Season data supports Atletico Nacional to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Atletico Nacional4019131520
    18Chico17195212-17
    4Atletico Nacional15650110
    16Chico88224-8
    Chico sit in position 16, while Atletico Nacional sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Atletico Nacional to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Chico Over 2.5
    60%Atletico Nacional Over 2.5
    4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Chico sit at 60% and Atletico Nacional sit at 60% with the H2H average at 4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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