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Premier League | Sat 29 Aug, 15:00

Bournemouth v Everton Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Everton host Bournemouth at Hill Dickinson Stadium in a Premier League clash marked by contrasting styles and recent form. Everton have drawn their last three home matches, relying on a solid defensive structure that has conceded only 28 goals this season. Bournemouth arrive unbeaten in six games, known for their high shot volume and counter-attacking threat. Everton's aerial control and set-piece strength face Bournemouth's resilience and offensive pressure, setting the stage for a tightly contested match where neither side has clearly dominated recent encounters, making a draw a highly plausible outcome.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Match to finish as a Draw

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 33%, above the 27% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Everton have drawn their last three home matches in all competitions.
  • Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last six fixtures across competitions.
  • Everton concede few goals, with only three teams shipping fewer in the league.
  • Bournemouth average 14.19 shots per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.
Price warning

Match to finish as a Draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 33% while the model sits nearer 27% (-6.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Everton Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 2.35.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies a 27% chance for a draw, slightly below the market's 33.3% implied probability, indicating a short price. Everton's defensive solidity and home drawing trend combine with Bournemouth's unbeaten run and shot-heavy attack to suggest a stalemate. the football read is strong given Everton's difficulty in securing home wins and Bournemouth's resilience. Reduced staking is advised due to the negative , with potential improvements including price drift or late team news enhancing value.

Everton's home draw streakLast 3 home matches drawn
Positive
Bournemouth's unbeaten run6 matches unbeaten
Positive
Everton defensive record28 goals conceded, 4th best in league
Strong positive
Bournemouth shot volume14.19 shots per game
Positive
Market implied chance33.3% vs model 27%
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The tactical setup and recent form data point to a balanced contest where Everton's defensive resilience meets Bournemouth's offensive persistence. Everton's home draws and Bournemouth's unbeaten streak suggest a draw is the most likely outcome, reflecting a match where both teams find it difficult to break the deadlock.

Main risk

This is a higher-risk approach as it leaves no margin for late goals, but it provides significant returns.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“This fixture epitomizes a clash between Everton's disciplined defensive approach and Bournemouth's relentless shot creation, making a draw the most logical conclusion given the current form and tactical setups.”

Key Data Signals

Match to finish as a Draw evidence

Everton have drawn their last three home matches in all competitions.

Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last six fixtures across competitions.

Everton concede few goals, with only three teams shipping fewer in the league.

Bournemouth average 14.19 shots per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Match to finish as a Draw notes

  • Analysis of the last ten head-to-head matches reveals an average of 2.5 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Recent trends show Everton's home matches often end in draws, while Bournemouth's matches feature high shot volumes and frequent BTTS occurrences.
  • These trends suggest a match with balanced tempo and goal opportunities, making over 2.5 goals possible but not guaranteed, aligning with the anticipated close contest and draw result.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bournemouth3
Avg corners for
Everton4
Bournemouth11
Avg total corners
Everton4
Bournemouth2
Avg yellow cards
Everton0
Bournemouth5
Avg shots
Everton16
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Bournemouth average more corners (5.7) and yellow cards (2.48) per game than Everton, indicating aggressive play and territorial pressure. Everton's lower card count (1.82) and higher aerial duel wins suggest disciplined defensive play and set-piece threat. The combination of sustained pressure from Bournemouth and Everton's set-piece effectiveness shapes a dynamic match with multiple corners and tactical fouls influencing the flow.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Premier League hubBournemouth v Everton predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bournemouth1
Avg goals scored
Everton2
Bournemouth2
Avg goals conceded
Everton0
Bournemouth100%
BTTS rate
Everton0%
Bournemouth100%
Over 2.5 goals
Everton0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams show contrasting offensive and defensive traits that influence goal expectations. Bournemouth's high shot volume (14.19 per game) and tendency for early goals contrasts with Everton's late average first goal timing (49 minutes) and strong defensive record. Recent matches often ended 1-1, reflecting balanced attacking threat and defensive resilience, supporting a moderate goal count with both teams likely to score.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionEverton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Everton to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 21%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
The draw market is priced at 3.00 (2/1), implying a 33.3% chance, which is slightly higher than the model's 27% probability. This suggests the price is short and caution is warranted. The football context supports the draw due to Everton's home draw streak and Bournemouth's unbeaten run, but the current do not offer strong value, recommending reduced stakes or waiting for price improvement.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bournemouth

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
23 Aug 2026A Manchester City1-2

Everton

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
22 Aug 2026H Crystal Palace2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Everton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Everton to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 21%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Bournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Everton have gained 3 points with 2 goals scored and none conceded in their recent form snapshot, maintaining a solid defensive base. Bournemouth have not earned points recently but have scored and conceded goals, with a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals and BTTS in their last match. This contrast in form underlines Everton's defensive steadiness against Bournemouth's offensive volatility, reinforcing the likelihood of a close, competitive match potentially ending in a draw.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Bournemouth wins
0Draws
3Everton wins
10 Feb 2026Everton v Bournemouth1-2
02 Dec 2025Bournemouth v Everton0-1
26 Jul 2025Everton v Bournemouth0-3
08 Feb 2025Everton v Bournemouth0-2
04 Jan 2025Bournemouth v Everton1-0
31 Aug 2024Everton v Bournemouth2-3
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Everton to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 21%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Bournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The last ten meetings between Everton and Bournemouth have averaged 2.5 goals per game, reflecting moderately open encounters. Everton's previous 1-0 away win contrasts with Bournemouth's resilience in recent fixtures, but the head-to-head record does not strongly favor either side, providing only weak support for the draw prediction and emphasizing the balanced nature of this matchup.
Season team stats

Premier League

Bournemouth1
Played
Everton1
Bournemouth1
Avg goals for
Everton2
Bournemouth2
Avg goals against
Everton0
Bournemouth0
Clean sheets
Everton1
Best odds for this sectionEverton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Everton to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Bournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Season-long data shows Everton's defensive strength with only 28 goals conceded, ranking fourth best in the league, and a tendency to draw at home. Bournemouth's offensive profile is marked by a high volume of shots and corners, reflecting an aggressive attacking style. This season-long contrast between Everton's defensive compactness and Bournemouth's offensive pressure supports the expectation of a tight match with limited goal-scoring opportunities, consistent with a draw outcome.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Everton311002
15Bournemouth01001-1
Everton sit 4th in the Premier League, reflecting strong overall performance but with a noted difficulty in converting home matches into wins. Bournemouth are 14th, carrying momentum from a six-match unbeaten run. The standings highlight Everton's defensive solidity and Bournemouth's resilience, but the table positions do not strongly predict a decisive result, supporting the likelihood of a draw in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Bournemouth Over 2.5
0%Everton Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last ten head-to-head matches reveals an average of 2.5 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring. Recent trends show Everton's home matches often end in draws, while Bournemouth's matches feature high shot volumes and frequent BTTS occurrences. These trends suggest a match with balanced tempo and goal opportunities, making over 2.5 goals possible but not guaranteed, aligning with the anticipated close contest and draw result.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Bournemouth v Everton prediction

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