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Liverpool crestLiverpool
v
Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

Premier League | Sat 29 Aug, 12:30

Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 17:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Liverpool hosts Nottingham Forest in a Premier League clash marked by contrasting issues. Liverpool's attack showed promise with 2.98 expected goals and key chances from Alexander Isak and Cody Gakpo, yet defensive frailty persists, with eight consecutive matches without a clean sheet. Nottingham Forest, despite recent defeats and a lack of goals, have demonstrated higher possession and shot volume than opponents, indicating they can find scoring opportunities. This tactical mismatch sets up a contest where Liverpool's offensive strength meets Forest's potential to breach a vulnerable defense, creating a scenario ripe for goals from both sides but with Liverpool favored to win.

BT4Y best bet

Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Liverpool generated 2.98 expected goals in their opening match, showing strong attacking potential.
  • The Reds have conceded in eight straight competitive matches, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Nottingham Forest have higher possession and shot volume than Leeds despite recent losses, indicating scoring chances.
  • Forest have failed to score in four of their last six matches, posing a finishing risk.
  • Liverpool's home record includes 12 wins in the last 13 opening league fixtures, supporting a home victory.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score as a well-supported pick, combining Liverpool's strong attacking output (2.98 xG) with their ongoing defensive issues, which allow opponents to score. Nottingham Forest's ability to generate possession and shots despite recent scoring struggles adds to the likelihood of both teams scoring. The at 3.0 offer a slight over the implied probability, reflecting a balanced but positive expectation for this outcome. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Liverpool attacking strength2.98 expected goals in last match
Strong positive
Liverpool defensive weakness8 consecutive matches conceding
Strong positive
Nottingham Forest scoring potentialHigher possession and shots than Leeds
Positive
Forest recent scoring strugglesFailed to score in 4 of last 6 matches
Neutral
Market price vs model chance3.0 odds vs 36.3% model chance
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Liverpool's potent attack combined with Nottingham Forest's ability to create chances despite recent scoring woes makes a Liverpool win with both teams scoring a plausible outcome. Liverpool's defensive frailty invites goals from Forest, while Liverpool's home control and chance creation support their victory. This bet captures the tactical and statistical dynamics shaping the fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and scoring dynamics

“Liverpool's attacking firepower paired with their defensive lapses creates a scenario where both teams scoring is likely, while their strong home form underpins in a home win.”

Key Data Signals

Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Liverpool generated 2.98 expected goals in their opening match, showing strong attacking potential.

The Reds have conceded in eight straight competitive matches, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Nottingham Forest have higher possession and shot volume than Leeds despite recent losses, indicating scoring chances.

Forest have failed to score in four of their last six matches, posing a finishing risk.

What To Watch In The Data

Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last nine meetings, the average goals per match is 2.0, suggesting moderate scoring.
  • Liverpool's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, reflecting an open style with defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Nottingham Forest's recent matches have been lower scoring, but their ability to create chances against strong opponents suggests the potential for goals on both sides in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Liverpool6
Avg corners for
Nottingham Forest3
Liverpool8
Avg total corners
Nottingham Forest5
Liverpool3
Avg yellow cards
Nottingham Forest2
Liverpool27
Avg shots
Nottingham Forest12
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 58% · edge +12.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Liverpool averages 27 shots and 6 corners per match, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Nottingham Forest's lower averages (12 shots, 3 corners) reflect a more restrained attack but with enough activity to threaten Liverpool's vulnerable defense. Both teams' fouling rates and card averages suggest a competitive but not overly aggressive match.

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Premier League fixtures and predictionsLiverpool v Nottingham Forest predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Liverpool2
Avg goals scored
Nottingham Forest0
Liverpool2
Avg goals conceded
Nottingham Forest1
Liverpool100%
BTTS rate
Nottingham Forest0%
Liverpool100%
Over 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Liverpool's 2.98 expected goals and Forest's higher possession and shot volume despite recent scoring struggles suggest a match with multiple scoring opportunities. Liverpool's defensive record of conceding in eight consecutive matches increases the likelihood of both teams scoring, aligning well with the BTTS component of the pick.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLiverpool Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 79% · edge -12.5 pts
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Liverpool to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 3.0 for Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score reflect a slightly positive value compared to the model's 36.3% chance. The price fairly balances Liverpool's strong attack against their defensive vulnerabilities and Forest's scoring potential. This market is not price-sensitive and offers a reasonable return given the tactical context and recent form.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Liverpool

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
23 Aug 2026A Newcastle2-2

Nottingham Forest

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Aug 2026H Leeds0-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 83% vs implied 88% · edge -4.8 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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Liverpool Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Liverpool to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Liverpool's recent form shows strong attacking output but defensive lapses, with a 2-2 draw featuring 2.98 xG and goals conceded. Nottingham Forest have yet to score this season, losing two matches despite higher possession and shot counts. This contrast in form underlines Liverpool's favored status but also the likelihood of Forest scoring, supporting the combined win and BTTS pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Liverpool wins
1Draws
3Nottingham Forest wins
22 Feb 2026Nottingham Forest v Liverpool0-1
22 Nov 2025Liverpool v Nottingham Forest0-3
14 Jan 2025Nottingham Forest v Liverpool1-1
14 Sep 2024Liverpool v Nottingham Forest0-1
02 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest v Liverpool0-1
29 Oct 2023Liverpool v Nottingham Forest3-0
Market aligned with main pickLiverpool to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 67% · edge -9.4 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The nine previous meetings between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest average 2.0 goals per game, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Forest have won twice and Liverpool once in the last four encounters, showing competitive balance. While historical results provide context, current form and tactical factors carry more weight in predicting this match's outcome.
Season team stats

Premier League

Liverpool1
Played
Nottingham Forest1
Liverpool2
Avg goals for
Nottingham Forest0
Liverpool2
Avg goals against
Nottingham Forest1
Liverpool0
Clean sheets
Nottingham Forest0
Market aligned with main pickLiverpool Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 79% · edge -12.5 pts
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Load more odds for this section
Liverpool to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Liverpool's season stats highlight a potent attack averaging 27 shots and 7 shots on target per match, but a defense conceding in every game so far. Nottingham Forest's lower shot volumes and scoring difficulties contrast with their ability to maintain possession and create chances. These season-long trends reinforce the expectation of Liverpool winning while conceding at least one goal.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Liverpool220200
12Nottingham Forest12011-1
Liverpool sits 10th with 1 point, while Nottingham Forest is 15th with 0 points early in the season. The standings reflect a small sample but indicate Liverpool's need to capitalize at home and Forest's struggle for points and goals. The table pressure favors Liverpool to secure a home win but does not preclude Forest scoring.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Liverpool Over 2.5
0%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last nine meetings, the average goals per match is 2.0, suggesting moderate scoring. Liverpool's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, reflecting an open style with defensive vulnerabilities. Nottingham Forest's recent matches have been lower scoring, but their ability to create chances against strong opponents suggests the potential for goals on both sides in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Liverpool v Nottingham Forest prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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