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Botafogo SP crestBotafogo SP
v
Novorizontino crestNovorizontino

Serie B | Wed 09 Sep, 23:30

Botafogo SP v Novorizontino Stats

Data last updated: Tue 08 Sep 2026, 08:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Novorizontino enters this Serie B clash in strong form, sitting third in the table with 46 points, well ahead of Botafogo SP in 15th with 31 points. Novorizontino's attack has been potent, averaging 2.4 goals per game recently, while Botafogo SP struggles with just 0.6 goals per match. Defensively, Novorizontino is solid, conceding only 0.6 goals on average compared to Botafogo SP's 1.4. This contrast in form and quality sets the stage for a likely away victory, with Novorizontino's attacking efficiency and defensive resilience key factors.

BT4Y best bet

Novorizontino to Win

  • Novorizontino ranks 3rd with 46 points; Botafogo SP is 15th with 31 points.
  • Novorizontino averages 2.4 goals per game; Botafogo SP averages 0.6.
  • Novorizontino concedes only 0.6 goals per game; Botafogo SP concedes 1.4.
  • Novorizontino averages 18.2 shots and 7 shots on target per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.
  • Botafogo SP has a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Novorizontino's 80%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Novorizontino to win, assigning a 70% chance based on their superior recent form, offensive firepower, and defensive solidity. Novorizontino's high shot volume and efficiency, combined with Botafogo SP's struggles to score and weaker defense, create a clear statistical edge. The current at 2.6 offer positive value, reflecting a significant gap between implied and model probabilities. This pick is supported by comprehensive player data and team performance metrics, making it a confident selection for this fixture.

Model Chance70%
Strong positive
Implied Chance38.5%
Strong positive
Value Edge31.5%
Strong positive
Recent Goals For2.4 per game (Novorizontino) vs 0.6 (Botafogo SP)
Strong positive
Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game (Novorizontino) vs 1.4 (Botafogo SP)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Novorizontino's superior attacking output and defensive stability make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their consistent form and ability to generate high-quality chances contrast sharply with Botafogo SP's struggles, suggesting Novorizontino will control the match and likely come away with the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Novorizontino's attacking efficiency and defensive discipline position them strongly to dominate this fixture, making their win the most logical outcome based on current form and player contributions.”

Key Data Signals

Novorizontino to Win evidence

Novorizontino ranks 3rd with 46 points; Botafogo SP is 15th with 31 points.

Novorizontino averages 2.4 goals per game; Botafogo SP averages 0.6.

Novorizontino concedes only 0.6 goals per game; Botafogo SP concedes 1.4.

Novorizontino averages 18.2 shots and 7 shots on target per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Novorizontino to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.7, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters historically.
  • However, Novorizontino's recent 80% over 2.5 goals rate suggests a faster tempo and more open play in current form, increasing the likelihood of a higher-scoring match than the historical average.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Botafogo SP6.6
Avg corners for
Novorizontino8.4
Botafogo SP13.8
Avg total corners
Novorizontino12.8
Botafogo SP1.6
Avg yellow cards
Novorizontino1.6
Botafogo SP13.2
Avg shots
Novorizontino18.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 71% · edge -2.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Novorizontino averages 8.4 corners and 18.2 shots per game, indicating sustained offensive pressure and territorial control. Both teams have similar yellow card averages (1.6), suggesting a balanced discipline level. Botafogo SP's lower shot volume and corners reflect their more defensive posture, likely ceding territory to Novorizontino.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo SP0.6
Avg goals scored
Novorizontino2.4
Botafogo SP1.4
Avg goals conceded
Novorizontino0.6
Botafogo SP40%
BTTS rate
Novorizontino60%
Botafogo SP40%
Over 2.5 goals
Novorizontino80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Novorizontino's recent matches show a high over 2.5 goals rate at 80%, reflecting their attacking potency, while Botafogo SP's lower 40% rate and modest scoring suggest a potential for goals but also some defensive caution. Both teams to score is less certain given Botafogo SP's scoring struggles, but the attacking threat from Novorizontino supports a goal-rich game.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
The of 2.6 for Novorizontino to win represent strong value given the model's 70% probability estimate. This significant indicates the market underestimates Novorizontino's chances, making the bet attractive without major price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo SP

LLLDW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
04 Sep 2026A Nautico Recife0-1
29 Aug 2026H Cuiaba1-2
25 Aug 2026A Atletico Goianiense0-3
20 Aug 2026H Criciuma1-1
14 Aug 2026A São Bernardo1-0

Novorizontino

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
05 Sep 2026H Avai3-1
29 Aug 2026H Sport Recife2-1
24 Aug 2026A Athletic Club4-1
21 Aug 2026H America Mineiro3-0
16 Aug 2026A CRB0-0
Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Novorizontino's recent form is strong, accumulating 13 points with an average of 2.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game, highlighting both offensive and defensive balance. Botafogo SP's 4 points and 0.6 goals scored reflect offensive struggles, making Novorizontino the form favorite to win this encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Botafogo SP wins
2Draws
5Novorizontino wins
10 May 2026Novorizontino v Botafogo SP1-0
25 Jan 2026Novorizontino v Botafogo SP2-0
24 Oct 2025Novorizontino v Botafogo SP1-1
06 Jul 2025Botafogo SP v Novorizontino0-0
23 Feb 2025Botafogo SP v Novorizontino1-2
14 Sep 2024Novorizontino v Botafogo SP2-0
Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 1.7 goals per game, suggesting relatively tight contests. While this supports cautious expectations for goal volume, Novorizontino's current attacking form and Botafogo SP's defensive vulnerabilities provide a stronger case for Novorizontino's win than past results alone.
Season team stats

Serie B

Botafogo SP26
Played
Novorizontino26
Botafogo SP1.1
Avg goals for
Novorizontino1.7
Botafogo SP1.1
Avg goals against
Novorizontino0.9
Botafogo SP5
Clean sheets
Novorizontino9
Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over the season, Novorizontino ranks third with 46 points, showcasing consistent performance and a solid goal difference supported by their 2.4 goals per game and tight defense. Botafogo SP's 15th place and lower scoring rate underline their challenges, reinforcing Novorizontino's superiority in this matchup.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Novorizontino4626137621
15Botafogo SP312687110
The league standings emphasize Novorizontino's push for promotion or playoff positions, creating strong motivation to secure points. Botafogo SP's position near the relegation zone adds pressure but also suggests a defensive mindset, which may limit their attacking threat against a higher-ranked opponent.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Botafogo SP Over 2.5
80%Novorizontino Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.7, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters historically. However, Novorizontino's recent 80% over 2.5 goals rate suggests a faster tempo and more open play in current form, increasing the likelihood of a higher-scoring match than the historical average.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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