Football Stats Hub

America Mineiro crestAmerica Mineiro
v
Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife

Serie B | Thu 10 Sep, 00:30

America Mineiro v Nautico Recife Stats

Data last updated: Wed 09 Sep 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features America Mineiro, struggling near the relegation zone, hosting Nautico Recife, who sit comfortably in mid-table with a strong recent run. Nautico have been defensively solid, conceding just 0.6 goals per game compared to America Mineiro's 2.4, and have accumulated 11 points in their last five matches versus America Mineiro's 3. The tactical setup suggests Nautico will look to control the midfield and exploit defensive frailties, making them the favorites despite playing away.

BT4Y best bet

Nautico Recife to Win

  • Nautico Recife holds a 70% to win, with strong value at 2.75 .
  • America Mineiro concedes 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Nautico Recife averages 1.2 goals scored per match, showing effective attack.
  • Recent form heavily favors Nautico with 11 points from last five games versus America Mineiro's 3.
  • Player data highlights Luiz Cláudio and Wendell as key attacking threats for Nautico Recife.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Nautico Recife's superior defensive record and recent form underpin the 70% to win, supported by their ability to limit opponents to just 0.6 goals per game. America Mineiro's defensive struggles and low points haul in recent matches add to Nautico's edge. The of 2.75 offer positive value given the implied chance of 36.4%. Player-level data further supports this, with Luiz Cláudio's goal threat and Wendell's creative influence enhancing Nautico's attacking potential. This combination of form, defense, and attacking quality justifies backing Nautico Recife to win.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
America Mineiro Defensive Record2.4 goals conceded per game
Negative
Nautico Recife Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Recent Form Points (Last 5)Nautico 11 vs America Mineiro 3
Strong positive
Player ImpactLuiz Cláudio 3 goals, Wendell 9 key passes per 90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Nautico Recife's consistent defensive solidity and superior recent form make them the tactical and statistical favorites in this fixture. Their ability to control midfield and create quality chances through players like Wendell and Luiz Cláudio provides a clear pathway to victory, while America Mineiro's defensive frailties increase their vulnerability.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact analysis

“Nautico Recife's disciplined defense combined with creative midfielders like Wendell creates a balanced attack-defense dynamic that should outmatch America Mineiro's struggling backline, making them the logical choice for the win.”

Key Data Signals

Nautico Recife to Win evidence

Nautico Recife holds a 70% to win, with strong value at 2.75 .

America Mineiro concedes 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Nautico Recife averages 1.2 goals scored per match, showing effective attack.

Recent form heavily favors Nautico with 11 points from last five games versus America Mineiro's 3.

What To Watch In The Data

Nautico Recife to Win notes

  • The last nine head-to-head meetings average 2.44 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, Nautico Recife's recent matches show a tendency towards tighter defensive games, with only 20% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting this fixture may lean towards a controlled tempo with fewer goals, favoring a disciplined Nautico side.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

America Mineiro0.8
Avg goals scored
Nautico Recife1.2
America Mineiro2.4
Avg goals conceded
Nautico Recife0.6
America Mineiro40%
BTTS rate
Nautico Recife60%
America Mineiro80%
Over 2.5 goals
Nautico Recife20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 58% · edge +8.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Goal trends suggest a low-scoring match with Nautico Recife conceding just 0.6 goals per game, contrasting with America Mineiro's leaky defense at 2.4 goals conceded per game. BTTS rates favor Nautico's defense, with their matches showing fewer goals overall, indicating a likely controlled game with limited scoring from America Mineiro.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The current of 2.75 for Nautico Recife to win offer strong value against the model's 70% win probability. This price reflects an implied chance of 36.4%, significantly lower than the model's assessment, indicating a positive and a compelling betting opportunity with standard stake guidance.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

America Mineiro5.75
Avg corners for
Nautico Recife6.2
America Mineiro12
Avg total corners
Nautico Recife9.6
America Mineiro1.5
Avg yellow cards
Nautico Recife3.2
America Mineiro19.25
Avg shots
Nautico Recife17.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 60% · edge +1.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams average similar corner counts (America Mineiro 6.6, Nautico Recife 6.2), suggesting balanced territorial exchanges. Nautico Recife's higher yellow card average (3.2 vs 1.2) indicates a more aggressive approach, while their higher shots on target per game (6.6) reflect efficient attacking pressure despite fewer total shots than America Mineiro.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

America Mineiro

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
05 Sep 2026A CRB1-3
30 Aug 2026H Ponte Preta2-0
24 Aug 2026A Sport Recife0-3
21 Aug 2026A Novorizontino0-3
16 Aug 2026H Athletic Club1-3

Nautico Recife

WWDWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
04 Sep 2026H Botafogo SP1-0
29 Aug 2026H Athletic Club2-1
23 Aug 2026A São Bernardo1-1
19 Aug 2026H Ceara1-0
14 Aug 2026A Ponte Preta1-1
Market aligned with main pickNautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Recent form data heavily favors Nautico Recife, who have secured 11 points in their last five matches compared to America Mineiro's 3. Nautico's defensive resilience and ability to score consistently underpin their momentum, while America Mineiro's struggles to find the net and defensive lapses contribute to their poor recent results, reinforcing Nautico's winning prospects.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4America Mineiro wins
2Draws
3Nautico Recife wins
10 May 2026Nautico Recife v America Mineiro4-0
12 Jan 2021Nautico Recife v America Mineiro0-0
09 Oct 2020America Mineiro v Nautico Recife2-0
12 Aug 2017America Mineiro v Nautico Recife1-0
13 May 2017Nautico Recife v America Mineiro0-0
12 Sep 2015America Mineiro v Nautico Recife2-1
Market aligned with main pickNautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The nine previous meetings between these teams show an average of 2.44 goals per game, reflecting balanced encounters. While the sample is moderate, Nautico Recife's recent form and defensive improvements provide a stronger edge than historical data alone, making past results a background factor rather than a decisive influence.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

America Mineiro26
Played
Nautico Recife26
America Mineiro0.7
Avg goals for
Nautico Recife1.2
America Mineiro1.7
Avg goals against
Nautico Recife1.1
America Mineiro4
Clean sheets
Nautico Recife8
Market aligned with main pickNautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Season statistics reveal Nautico Recife's strong defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, and a decent attack averaging 1.2 goals scored. America Mineiro's season is marked by defensive frailty, conceding 2.4 goals per game and scoring less than one goal per match, highlighting a significant imbalance that favors Nautico Recife's chances to win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Nautico Recife372610793
19America Mineiro14263518-26
Nautico Recife's mid-table position with 37 points contrasts sharply with America Mineiro's 19th place and 14 points, reflecting the pressure on the home side to avoid relegation. This standings gap underscores Nautico's relative stability and , suggesting they can approach the match with less pressure and more tactical control.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%America Mineiro Over 2.5
20%Nautico Recife Over 2.5
2.44H2H avg goals
The last nine head-to-head meetings average 2.44 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring. However, Nautico Recife's recent matches show a tendency towards tighter defensive games, with only 20% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting this fixture may lean towards a controlled tempo with fewer goals, favoring a disciplined Nautico side.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Fortaleza EC v AvaiSerie B · Wed 09 Sep 23:30Botafogo SP v NovorizontinoSerie B · Wed 09 Sep 23:30Operario-PR v CRBSerie B · Thu 10 Sep 00:30Atletico Goianiense v CearaSerie B · Thu 10 Sep 01:30

Competition and hubs

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre