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1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim
v
VfB Stuttgart crestVfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga | Sat 12 Sep, 14:30

1899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

1899 Hoffenheim face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga on Sat 12 Sep, 14:30. 1899 Hoffenheim come in with 0 recent points and 2 goals per match, while VfB Stuttgart have 3 points and 2.5 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • At 1.83, Over 3.5 Cards implies roughly 55%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 70%.
  • 1899 Hoffenheim have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while VfB Stuttgart sit at 2.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 70% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 55% implied by the current price. 1899 Hoffenheim have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while VfB Stuttgart sit at 2.

Model chance vs price70% model chance against roughly 55% implied
Strong positive
1899 Hoffenheim have the higher yellow-card average at 3.Visible data support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 3.5 Cards is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers 1899 Hoffenheim have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while VfB Stuttgart sit at 2. The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

1899 Hoffenheim have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while VfB Stuttgart sit at 2.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Compare both yellow-card averages before treating the card line as value.
  • Check whether match pressure is likely to create fouls and recovery challenges.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

1899 Hoffenheim2
Avg goals scored
VfB Stuttgart2.5
1899 Hoffenheim3
Avg goals conceded
VfB Stuttgart3
1899 Hoffenheim100%
BTTS rate
VfB Stuttgart100%
1899 Hoffenheim100%
Over 2.5 goals
VfB Stuttgart100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 75% · edge +2.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 100% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 100% for VfB Stuttgart, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
VfB Stuttgart Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
VfB Stuttgart to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
4
Check odds @ 4
1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Bundesliga fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

1899 Hoffenheim8.5
Avg corners for
VfB Stuttgart6.5
1899 Hoffenheim13
Avg total corners
VfB Stuttgart15
1899 Hoffenheim3
Avg yellow cards
VfB Stuttgart2
1899 Hoffenheim16.5
Avg shots
VfB Stuttgart16.5
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

1899 Hoffenheim

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
05 Sep 2026H Borussia Dortmund2-3
29 Aug 2026A 1. FC Köln2-3

VfB Stuttgart

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
04 Sep 2026H 1. FC Köln4-1
28 Aug 2026A Bayern München1-5
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 64% · edge +15 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
VfB Stuttgart Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
VfB Stuttgart to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
4
Check odds @ 4
1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

21899 Hoffenheim wins
6Draws
2VfB Stuttgart wins
02 May 20261899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart3-3
20 Dec 2025VfB Stuttgart v 1899 Hoffenheim0-0
23 Feb 20251899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart1-1
06 Oct 2024VfB Stuttgart v 1899 Hoffenheim1-1
16 Mar 20241899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart0-3
28 Oct 2023VfB Stuttgart v 1899 Hoffenheim2-3
Best odds for this sectionVfB Stuttgart to WinBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
4
Check odds @ 4
1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
The head-to-head sample gives context for VfB Stuttgart to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim2
Played
VfB Stuttgart2
1899 Hoffenheim2
Avg goals for
VfB Stuttgart2.5
1899 Hoffenheim3
Avg goals against
VfB Stuttgart3
1899 Hoffenheim0
Clean sheets
VfB Stuttgart0
Best odds for this sectionVfB Stuttgart Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
VfB Stuttgart to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Season data supports VfB Stuttgart Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9VfB Stuttgart32101-1
161899 Hoffenheim02002-2
1899 Hoffenheim sit in position 16, while VfB Stuttgart sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the Over 3.5 Cards assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%1899 Hoffenheim Over 2.5
100%VfB Stuttgart Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 100% and VfB Stuttgart sit at 100% with the H2H average at 3.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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