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Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MG
v
Gremio crestGremio

Serie A | Sun 16 Aug, 20:00

Atletico-MG v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico-MG and Gremio meet in a Serie A clash where both sides have shown attacking intent despite mixed defensive records. Atletico-MG has earned 8 points recently with a modest goal return, while Gremio's 7 points come alongside a higher scoring rate but also more goals conceded. The tactical setup suggests an open game with both teams likely to find opportunities, reflecting their recent offensive patterns and the importance of securing points in the mid-table battle. This fixture promises competitive exchanges with goal-scoring chances for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have strong recent BTTS rates: Atletico-MG at 60%, Gremio at 100%.
  • Gremio averages 11 shots per game with 4.4 on target, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Atletico-MG's home form includes 1.2 goals scored per game, showing attacking capability.
  • The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals per match supports a goal-rich encounter.
  • Gremio's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Atletico-MG's 40%, suggesting potential for multiple goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% probability to both teams scoring, reflecting strong offensive outputs and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Gremio's perfect BTTS record recently and higher shot volume underline their consistent threat, while Atletico-MG's 60% BTTS rate and steady scoring support the likelihood of goals at both ends. The model sees clear value at of 1.91, with a 23.6% , making this a compelling pick based on current form and attacking profiles. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Chance76%
Strong positive
Implied Chance52.4%
Strong positive
Value Edge23.6%
Strong positive
Recent BTTS RatesAtletico-MG 60%, Gremio 100%
Strong positive
Shot VolumeGremio 11 avg shots, Atletico-MG 10 avg shots
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown offensive intent and vulnerability at the back, making a Both Teams to Score bet tactically sound. Gremio's consistent attacking threat combined with Atletico-MG's home scoring record suggests goals at both ends, supported by recent form data indicating a lively encounter with scoring opportunities for both sides.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This matchup features two sides with clear attacking ambitions but defensive frailties, making both teams scoring a logical expectation. Gremio's offensive consistency and Atletico-MG's home goal threat create a fertile environment for goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have strong recent BTTS rates: Atletico-MG at 60%, Gremio at 100%.

Gremio averages 11 shots per game with 4.4 on target, indicating offensive pressure.

Atletico-MG's home form includes 1.2 goals scored per game, showing attacking capability.

The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals per match supports a goal-rich encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 3.4, indicating a history of goal-rich encounters.
  • Gremio's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Atletico-MG's 40% rate suggest a tempo favoring multiple goals, with transitions and attacking intent from both sides contributing to this trend.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Atletico-MG2.75
Avg corners for
Gremio8
Atletico-MG8
Avg total corners
Gremio12.67
Atletico-MG2
Avg yellow cards
Gremio2.33
Atletico-MG10
Avg shots
Gremio12
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 60% · edge +1.5 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Gremio's higher average corners (6.4) and shots on target (4.4) indicate sustained attacking pressure, while Atletico-MG's 2.75 corners and 3 shots on target show a willingness to contest offensively. Both teams' moderate card averages suggest a competitive but not overly aggressive match, with set-piece opportunities likely to contribute to attacking chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atletico-MG1.2
Avg goals scored
Gremio1.6
Atletico-MG1
Avg goals conceded
Gremio1.8
Atletico-MG60%
BTTS rate
Gremio100%
Atletico-MG40%
Over 2.5 goals
Gremio80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Recent trends show Gremio scoring and conceding frequently, reflected in a 100% BTTS rate and 80% over 2.5 goals rate. Atletico-MG also contributes offensively with a 60% BTTS rate, supporting a game where both teams find the net. The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals per match further confirms the likelihood of multiple goals and BTTS.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2
Check odds @ 2
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Atletico-MG to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively at 1.91 with a of 76%, indicating strong value. The 23.6% suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of goals from both sides, making this a positive price opportunity without warning flags.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atletico-MG

DWDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
08 Aug 2026A Remo2-2
26 Jul 2026A Palmeiras2-1
21 Jul 2026H Bahia1-1
31 May 2026A Vasco DA Gama1-0
24 May 2026A Corinthians0-1

Gremio

WDLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
08 Aug 2026H Sao Paulo2-1
26 Jul 2026H Fluminense1-1
18 Jul 2026A Mirassol1-2
30 May 2026H Corinthians1-3
23 May 2026H Santos3-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 51% · edge +12.9 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Atletico-MG to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Atletico-MG has collected 8 points recently with a goal scoring rate of 1.2 per game and a 60% BTTS rate, showing moderate offensive consistency. Gremio's 7 points come with a higher 1.6 goals per game and a perfect 100% BTTS rate, indicating a strong recent tendency for both sides to score, reinforcing the BTTS pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Atletico-MG wins
1Draws
5Gremio wins
26 Feb 2026Gremio v Atletico-MG2-1
17 Aug 2025Atletico-MG v Gremio1-3
29 Mar 2025Gremio v Atletico-MG2-1
09 Oct 2024Atletico-MG v Gremio2-1
01 Sep 2024Gremio v Atletico-MG2-3
26 Nov 2023Atletico-MG v Gremio3-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2
Check odds @ 2
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Atletico-MG to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 3.4 goals per game, supporting a pattern of open, attacking contests between these teams. This historical data aligns with the expectation of both teams scoring, though recent tactical changes and form should also be considered for final assessment.
Season team stats

Serie A

Atletico-MG21
Played
Gremio21
Atletico-MG1.3
Avg goals for
Gremio1.1
Atletico-MG1.3
Avg goals against
Gremio1.3
Atletico-MG4
Clean sheets
Gremio5
Best odds for this sectionGremio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +14.7 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Load more odds for this section
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Atletico-MG to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Season-long data shows Gremio's attack is more prolific with 1.6 goals per game and a high BTTS rate, while Atletico-MG's 1.2 goals per game and 60% BTTS rate reflect decent offensive output but more defensive caution. These profiles suggest a match where both teams have the capability and tendency to score, supporting the BTTS market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Atletico-MG29218580
14Gremio2521678-3
Atletico-MG sits 11th with 29 points, and Gremio 14th with 25 points, both mid-table teams needing points to improve standings. This context suggests motivation to attack and secure points, increasing the likelihood of open play and goals at both ends, aligning with the BTTS selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
80%Gremio Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 3.4, indicating a history of goal-rich encounters. Gremio's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Atletico-MG's 40% rate suggest a tempo favoring multiple goals, with transitions and attacking intent from both sides contributing to this trend.

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Fixture links

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