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Athletic Club crestAthletic Club
v
Avai crestAvai

Serie B | Sun 28 Jun, 20:00

Athletic Club v Avai Stats

Data last updated: Tue 30 Jun 2026, 01:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Athletic Club face Avai in Serie B on Sun 28 Jun, 20:00. They face an Avaí side suffering a severe away problem, having lost four consecutive away matches in the league while conceding a heavy average of 1.83 goals per game on their travels.

BT4Y best bet

Athletic Club Win

  • At 1/1, Athletic Club Win implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 68%.
  • Athletic Club are historically strong at keeping things tight but have lacked ruthlessness, drawing three of their last six home matches.
  • Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Avai.
  • Athletic Club have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Athletic Club Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Athletic Club sit 9 in the table, while Avai sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 68% for Athletic Club Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Avai. Athletic Club are historically strong at keeping things tight but have lacked ruthlessness, drawing three of their last six home matches.

Model chance vs price68% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Strong positive
Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 8.Visible data support
Positive
Athletic Club have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Athletic Club are historically strong at keeping things tight.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Athletic Club Win is the preferred angle because athletic Club are historically strong at keeping things tight but have lacked ruthlessness, drawing three of their last six home matches. Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Avai. It is more like a stubborn old door: hard to break down, but not always leading somewhere exciting.

Main risk

It is more like a stubborn old door: hard to break down, but not always leading somewhere exciting.

Key Data Signals

Athletic Club Win evidence

Athletic Club are historically strong at keeping things tight but have lacked ruthlessness, drawing three of their last.

Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Avai.

Athletic Club have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Athletic Club Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Athletic Club sit 9 in the table, while Avai sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Athletic Club Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Athletic Club1
    Avg goals scored
    Avai1
    Athletic Club1
    Avg goals conceded
    Avai1.8
    Athletic Club60%
    BTTS rate
    Avai60%
    Athletic Club20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Avai60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 50% · edge +23.3 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 69%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 51% · edge +16.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
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    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Athletic Club to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Athletic Club5
    Avg corners for
    Avai1.8
    Athletic Club10.4
    Avg total corners
    Avai10.8
    Athletic Club2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Avai2
    Athletic Club11
    Avg shots
    Avai8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +8.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Athletic Club

    LDDWW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    20 Jun 2026A Londrina0-2
    14 Jun 2026H Goias1-1
    11 Jun 2026A Sport Recife1-1
    30 May 2026H Fortaleza EC1-0
    25 May 2026A Botafogo SP2-1

    Avai

    WLLLL
    Last 51W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 7L
    21 Jun 2026H Cuiaba1-0
    16 Jun 2026A Londrina2-3
    11 Jun 2026A Ceara1-2
    30 May 2026H Criciuma1-2
    24 May 2026H Goias0-2
    Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 51% · edge +16.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Athletic Club wins
    0Draws
    1Avai wins
    01 Nov 2025Avai v Athletic Club2-1
    14 Jul 2025Athletic Club v Avai4-0
    Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 51% · edge +16.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Athletic Club to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Serie B

    Athletic Club15
    Played
    Avai15
    Athletic Club1.1
    Avg goals for
    Avai1
    Athletic Club1
    Avg goals against
    Avai1.4
    Athletic Club3
    Clean sheets
    Avai5
    Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 51% · edge +16.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Season data supports Athletic Club to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9Athletic Club22155731
    18Avai1315348-6
    Athletic Club sit in position 9, while Avai sit in position 18, so table pressure belongs in the Athletic Club Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Athletic Club Over 2.5
    60%Avai Over 2.5
    3.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Athletic Club sit at 20% and Avai sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.