Antwerp

Union St. Gilloise

Jupiler Pro League | Sun 20 Sep, 12:30

Antwerp v Union St. Gilloise Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Antwerp hosts Union St. Gilloise in a Jupiler Pro League clash where attacking intent and goal-scoring prowess are expected to dominate. Gilloise currently sit second in the table with a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, while Antwerp, positioned 11th, have shown vulnerability at the back, conceding 2.4 goals per match. Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates at 80%, reflecting open games and offensive approaches. This fixture promises tactical battles with Union's efficient attack and Antwerp's aggressive style likely to produce multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring matches.
Gilloise concede only 0.4 goals per game but compensate with a potent attack averaging 2.8 goals scored.
Antwerp's defense has been leaky, conceding 2.4 goals per match, increasing the chance of goals.
Recent head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, supporting a high-scoring encounter.
Top attackers like R. Hurtevent from Union St. Gilloise show strong goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at a 78% chance, well above the implied market chance of 57.8%, offering a strong of 20.2%. Both teams demonstrate attacking strength and defensive vulnerabilities, with Antwerp conceding heavily and Union St. Gilloise maintaining a high scoring rate. The high volume of shots and shots on target from key players like I. Adekami supports an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. The consistent Over 2.5 Goals rate of 80% for both sides further confirms the likelihood of a high-scoring match.

Model Chance78%

Strong positive

Market Implied Chance57.8%

Strong positive

Value Edge20.2%

Strong positive

Antwerp Goals Against2.4 per game

Strong positive

Union St. Gilloise Goals For2.8 per game

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Antwerp's defensive frailties meet Union St. Gilloise's efficient offense. The statistical evidence points to multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice given both teams' offensive tendencies and recent scoring patterns.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“This fixture features two sides with strong attacking profiles and contrasting defensive records, setting the stage for a goal-rich encounter. The data clearly favors Over 2.5 Goals as both teams create and concede chances regularly.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring matches.

Gilloise concede only 0.4 goals per game but compensate with a potent attack averaging 2.8 goals scored.

Antwerp's defense has been leaky, conceding 2.4 goals per match, increasing the chance of goals.

Recent head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, supporting a high-scoring encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, a high figure supporting Over 2.5 Goals.
Both teams have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 rate this season, indicating a trend of open matches with multiple goals.
This trend reflects a tempo and tactical openness conducive to goal-scoring opportunities from both sides.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Antwerp1.8

Avg goals scored

Union St. Gilloise2.8

Antwerp2.4

Avg goals conceded

Union St. Gilloise0.4

Antwerp60%

BTTS rate

Union St. Gilloise20%

Antwerp80%

Over 2.5 goals

Union St. Gilloise80%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 47%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Both teams show contrasting BTTS rates, with Antwerp scoring and conceding more frequently (60% BTTS) compared to Union St. Gilloise's more conservative 20%. However, the high average goals per game (3.5 in head-to-head) and strong Over 2.5 Goals rates (80% each) suggest a match likely to feature multiple goals, even if only one side scores consistently.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Union St. Gilloise to WinBetfred guide price · model 70%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Antwerp Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Antwerp to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 1.73, reflecting a 57.8% implied chance, which is significantly lower than the model's 78% probability. This discrepancy highlights a clear value opportunity, supported by both teams' offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities. The price is stable with no warning flags, making it a strong candidate for standard staking.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles latest football stats main football hub today's predictions best bets research acca fixture filtering

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Antwerp5.8

Avg corners for

Union St. Gilloise5.2

Antwerp11.8

Avg total corners

Union St. Gilloise8.8

Antwerp1.2

Avg yellow cards

Union St. Gilloise2

Antwerp16

Avg shots

Union St. Gilloise16.2

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Antwerp averages 5.8 corners and 16 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Gilloise also contribute with 5 corners and 10.5 shots per match. The card count is moderate, with Union showing a higher yellow card average (2 per game), suggesting physical contests that could disrupt rhythm but also lead to set-piece opportunities.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Antwerp

LLLDW

Last 51W 1D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 1D 3L

13 Sep 2026A Club Brugge KV1-3

05 Sep 2026A Standard Liege0-1

30 Aug 2026H St. Truiden1-4

22 Aug 2026H Genk4-4

15 Aug 2026A Kortrijk3-0

Union St. Gilloise

WWWWD

Last 54W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 105W 1D 0L

12 Sep 2026H Lommel United5-0

05 Sep 2026A Charleroi3-2

02 Sep 2026A St. Truiden3-0

30 Aug 2026H Anderlecht3-0

15 Aug 2026H Zulte Waregem0-0

Best odds for this sectionUnion St. Gilloise to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 63% · edge +7.5 pts

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Antwerp Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

Antwerp to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

Recent form data shows Antwerp scoring 1.8 goals but conceding 2.4 per game, reflecting defensive instability. Gilloise exhibit strong form with 2.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per match. Both teams have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring fixture.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Antwerp wins

1Draws

7Union St. Gilloise wins

21 Feb 2026Union St. Gilloise v Antwerp2-1

25 Jul 2025Antwerp v Union St. Gilloise1-1

17 May 2025Antwerp v Union St. Gilloise0-4

29 Mar 2025Union St. Gilloise v Antwerp5-1

08 Jan 2025Antwerp v Union St. Gilloise5-1

01 Dec 2024Union St. Gilloise v Antwerp2-1

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Load more odds for this section

Union St. Gilloise to WinBetfred guide price · model 70%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Antwerp to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

The 10 previous meetings between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise have averaged 3.5 goals per game, indicating a history of open, high-scoring encounters. This sample supports the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals, although current form and tactical changes should also be considered alongside historical data.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Jupiler Pro League

Antwerp6

Played

Union St. Gilloise6

Antwerp1.8

Avg goals for

Union St. Gilloise3.2

Antwerp2.2

Avg goals against

Union St. Gilloise0.5

Antwerp1

Clean sheets

Union St. Gilloise4

Best odds for this sectionUnion St. Gilloise to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 63% · edge +7.5 pts

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

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Antwerp Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

Antwerp to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

Season-long statistics reveal Antwerp's porous defense and moderate attack, while Union St. Gilloise combine a potent offense with a solid defensive record. Both teams' consistent Over 2.5 Goals rates of 80% underline their tendency for open, goal-filled matches, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Union St. Gilloise	16	6	5	1	0	16
11	Antwerp	7	6	2	1	3	-2

Gilloise's second-place standing with 16 points contrasts with Antwerp's 11th place and 7 points, indicating differing stakes and momentum. While standings alone don't dictate match outcome, Union's strong position suggests and attacking efficiency, likely influencing the match's goal dynamics.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Antwerp Over 2.5

80%Union St. Gilloise Over 2.5

3.5H2H avg goals

The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, a high figure supporting Over 2.5 Goals. Both teams have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 rate this season, indicating a trend of open matches with multiple goals. This trend reflects a tempo and tactical openness conducive to goal-scoring opportunities from both sides.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Antwerp v Union St. Gilloise Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Antwerp

Union St. Gilloise

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Football Stats Hub

Antwerp v Union St. Gilloise Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Antwerp

Union St. Gilloise

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