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Lommel United crestLommel United
v
KV Mechelen crestKV Mechelen

Jupiler Pro League | Sat 19 Sep, 19:45

Lommel United v KV Mechelen Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 06:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lommel United hosts KV Mechelen in a Jupiler Pro League clash where Lommel United's recent form and home advantage set an intriguing stage. Lommel United has accumulated 7 points and sits 12th, showing more resilience than KV Mechelen, who are 16th with just 2 points. Lommel's defensive solidity and tactical discipline contrast with KV Mechelen's struggles at the back, conceding 2.4 goals per game. This fixture offers Lommel a chance to capitalize on their momentum and home conditions against a side still seeking rhythm and .

BT4Y best bet

Lommel United to Win

  • Lommel United holds a strong 64.8% to win, with positive value at 2.6 .
  • KV Mechelen concedes an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Lommel United's recent form includes 6 points from last matches, showing upward momentum.
  • KV Mechelen's BTTS rate is 40%, but Lommel United has yet to concede many goals recently.
  • Lommel United averages 10.6 shots per game, reflecting attacking intent and pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lommel United to win due to their superior recent form, defensive stability, and home advantage. Lommel's ability to limit goals conceded to 1.4 per game contrasts with KV Mechelen's leaky defense allowing 2.4 goals per match. The attacking output and shot volume from Lommel also support their chances. The 2.6 offer positive value given the 64.8% . No price warnings apply, and the data quality is solid, making this a confident selection with standard stake guidance.

Model Win Probability64.8%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance38.5%
Strong positive
Defensive Strength Lommel1.4 goals conceded per game
Positive
Defensive Weakness KV Mechelen2.4 goals conceded per game
Positive
Recent Form Lommel6 points in recent matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lommel United's home form and defensive organization provide a tactical edge in this fixture. Their recent momentum and ability to limit goals conceded underpin the in their victory. KV Mechelen's struggles to score and defend consistently make Lommel United the favored side to secure three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lommel United's blend of tactical discipline and home advantage makes them a compelling pick here, especially given KV Mechelen's defensive frailties and inconsistent form.”

Key Data Signals

Lommel United to Win evidence

Lommel United holds a strong 64.8% to win, with positive value at 2.6 .

KV Mechelen concedes an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Lommel United's recent form includes 6 points from last matches, showing upward momentum.

KV Mechelen's BTTS rate is 40%, but Lommel United has yet to concede many goals recently.

What To Watch In The Data

Lommel United to Win notes

  • In the last five meetings, the average goals scored is 3.4, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • However, Lommel United's recent matches show a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to KV Mechelen's 60%, suggesting the fixture may lean towards a tighter game with fewer goals, influenced by Lommel's defensive setup.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lommel United1
Avg goals scored
KV Mechelen1
Lommel United1.4
Avg goals conceded
KV Mechelen2.4
Lommel United0%
BTTS rate
KV Mechelen40%
Lommel United40%
Over 2.5 goals
KV Mechelen60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.8 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Lommel United's matches have a lower BTTS rate at 0%, reflecting a tighter defense, while KV Mechelen's 40% BTTS rate suggests some attacking threat. The goal-scoring averages and recent form hint at a controlled game with limited goals, favoring a home win without necessarily high scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lommel United

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
12 Sep 2026A Union St. Gilloise0-5
04 Sep 2026H Club Brugge KV0-1
29 Aug 2026A Cercle Brugge1-0
23 Aug 2026H KVC Westerlo4-0
16 Aug 2026H Charleroi0-1

KV Mechelen

LLDLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 4L
11 Sep 2026H Anderlecht0-1
05 Sep 2026H KVC Westerlo0-4
29 Aug 2026A RAAL La Louvière2-2
22 Aug 2026A Charleroi0-2
16 Aug 2026H Standard Liege3-3
Market aligned with main pickLommel United to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Lommel United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Lommel United's recent form shows 6 points gained with a solid defensive record, conceding just 1 goal in recent matches. KV Mechelen's form is weaker, with only 2 points and a higher goals-against average, indicating struggles to contain opponents and convert chances effectively.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Lommel United87223-2
17KV Mechelen37034-9
Lommel United sits 12th with 7 points, comfortably ahead of 16th-placed KV Mechelen with 2 points. The standings reflect Lommel's better start and less pressure, allowing them to play with more and control, while KV Mechelen faces urgency to improve results.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLommel United to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Lommel United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The of 2.6 for Lommel United to win represent strong value compared to the model's 64.8% win probability. This significant positive indicates the market underestimates Lommel's chances, making the selection price-sensitive and attractive for standard stakes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lommel United3.4
Avg corners for
KV Mechelen5.6
Lommel United11.4
Avg total corners
KV Mechelen9
Lommel United1
Avg yellow cards
KV Mechelen1.2
Lommel United10.6
Avg shots
KV Mechelen12.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 51% · edge +13.4 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3
Check odds @ 3
KV Mechelen averages more corners (5.6) and shots (12.6) than Lommel United, indicating they may press offensively. However, Lommel's defensive discipline and fewer fouls (1 yellow card per game) suggest they manage pressure well. The card risk is balanced, with KV Mechelen slightly more prone to fouls and cards, possibly affecting game flow.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Lommel United wins
1Draws
2KV Mechelen wins
23 Mar 2023KV Mechelen v Lommel United0-4
03 Mar 2019Lommel United v KV Mechelen1-1
17 Nov 2018KV Mechelen v Lommel United3-2
29 Sep 2018Lommel United v KV Mechelen0-3
17 Aug 2018KV Mechelen v Lommel United1-2
Market aligned with main pickLommel United to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The head-to-head sample of five matches shows an average of 3.4 goals per game, suggesting open encounters historically. However, recent form and defensive improvements by Lommel United weaken the direct relevance of past high-scoring games, making current tactical and form indicators more decisive for this match.
Season team stats

Jupiler Pro League

Lommel United7
Played
KV Mechelen7
Lommel United0.9
Avg goals for
KV Mechelen0.7
Lommel United1.1
Avg goals against
KV Mechelen2
Lommel United3
Clean sheets
KV Mechelen1
Market aligned with main pickLommel United to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Lommel United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Lommel United's season stats reveal a balanced attack with 1 goal per game and a strong defense conceding 1.4 goals on average. KV Mechelen's higher goals conceded (2.4 per game) and lower scoring rate highlight defensive vulnerabilities and offensive inefficiency, supporting a home win scenario.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lommel United Over 2.5
60%KV Mechelen Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
In the last five meetings, the average goals scored is 3.4, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. However, Lommel United's recent matches show a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to KV Mechelen's 60%, suggesting the fixture may lean towards a tighter game with fewer goals, influenced by Lommel's defensive setup.

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