Charleroi

Cercle Brugge

Jupiler Pro League | Sat 19 Sep, 17:15

Charleroi v Cercle Brugge Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Charleroi enters this Jupiler Pro League fixture in strong form, sitting 4th with 15 points, while Cercle Brugge struggles near the bottom with just 3 points. Charleroi's recent performances show a balanced attack and solid defense, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Cercle Brugge, by contrast, has a weaker attack and defense, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 on average. This contrast in form and quality sets up Charleroi as the clear favorite to secure a home victory in this midweek clash.

BT4Y best bet

Charleroi to Win

Charleroi ranks 4th with 15 points; Cercle Brugge is 15th with 3 points.
Charleroi averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
Cercle Brugge scores 0.8 and concedes 1.8 on average, showing defensive frailty.
Charleroi's shot volume (17.6) and shots on target (4.8) surpass Cercle Brugge's (15.4 shots, 3.8 on target).
Head-to-head average goals are 3.4, indicating potential for a competitive match.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns Charleroi a 74% chance to win, reflecting their superior recent form, stronger attack, and more robust defense compared to Cercle Brugge. Charleroi's higher shot volume and goal threat from key players like P. Colassin reinforce their offensive edge. Defensive solidity limits Cercle Brugge's scoring opportunities, making a home win the most probable outcome. The 1.7 offer positive value given the model's implied chance of 58.8%.

Recent form advantageCharleroi 12 points vs Cercle Brugge 2 points in last matches

Strong positive

Goal scoring and defenseCharleroi scores 1.8 and concedes 0.8 per game; Cercle Brugge scores 0.8 and concedes 1.8

Strong positive

Shot metricsCharleroi averages 17.6 shots and 4.8 on target; Cercle Brugge 15.4 shots and 3.8 on target

Positive

Player attacking threatP. Guiagon leads Charleroi with 1.22 goals and 2.43 shots on target per 90

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Charleroi's superior form and attacking efficiency make them the logical choice to win this match. Their ability to create and convert chances, backed by a solid defensive record, contrasts sharply with Cercle Brugge's struggles, making a home victory the most likely outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome

“Charleroi's balanced attack and disciplined defense give them a clear edge over Cercle Brugge, whose low scoring and defensive vulnerabilities are unlikely to withstand sustained pressure.”

Key Data Signals

Charleroi to Win evidence

Charleroi ranks 4th with 15 points; Cercle Brugge is 15th with 3 points.

Charleroi averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.

Cercle Brugge scores 0.8 and concedes 1.8 on average, showing defensive frailty.

Charleroi's shot volume (17.6) and shots on target (4.8) surpass Cercle Brugge's (15.4 shots, 3.8 on target).

What To Watch In The Data

Charleroi to Win notes

The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3.4 goals, indicating a relatively open fixture historically.
However, current form and defensive solidity suggest this match may see fewer goals, with a controlled tempo and fewer high-scoring exchanges than past encounters.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Charleroi6.25

Avg corners for

Cercle Brugge7.67

Charleroi12

Avg total corners

Cercle Brugge11.33

Charleroi1.25

Avg yellow cards

Cercle Brugge1.67

Charleroi19

Avg shots

Cercle Brugge10.67

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Charleroi's average of 5.6 corners and 1 yellow card per game contrasts with Cercle Brugge's higher corners (8.4) and 1.4 yellow cards, indicating Cercle Brugge may press more aggressively but also concede more fouls. Charleroi's higher shot volume and shots on target reflect territorial control and offensive pressure, suggesting a match shaped by Charleroi's attacking intent and Cercle Brugge's fouling under pressure.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Charleroi1.8

Avg goals scored

Cercle Brugge0.8

Charleroi0.8

Avg goals conceded

Cercle Brugge1.8

Charleroi40%

BTTS rate

Cercle Brugge40%

Charleroi40%

Over 2.5 goals

Cercle Brugge40%

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 50% vs implied 43% · edge +7.5 pts

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Both teams to score is unlikely given Charleroi's strong defensive record conceding only 0.8 goals per game and Cercle Brugge's limited attacking output. The 40% BTTS rate for both sides supports a controlled goals environment, favoring a low-scoring match with Charleroi likely to keep a clean sheet or concede minimally.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCharleroi to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

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Charleroi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

The current of 1.7 for Charleroi to win reflect a positive value opportunity, as the model estimates a 74% chance of victory versus an implied market chance of 58.8%. This price suggests the market underestimates Charleroi's form and quality, making the home win a compelling bet without major price sensitivity concerns.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Charleroi

WLWWW

Last 54W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 105W 0D 1L

13 Sep 2026A Zulte Waregem1-0

05 Sep 2026H Union St. Gilloise2-3

29 Aug 2026A Kortrijk3-1

22 Aug 2026H KV Mechelen2-0

16 Aug 2026A Lommel United1-0

Cercle Brugge

DLLLD

Last 50W 2D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 3D 3L

12 Sep 2026A OH Leuven1-1

06 Sep 2026H Gent0-3

29 Aug 2026H Lommel United0-1

23 Aug 2026A Club Brugge KV0-1

14 Aug 2026H St. Truiden3-3

Market aligned with main pickCharleroi to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

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Charleroi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Charleroi's recent form is strong, accumulating 12 points with a solid goal difference, while Cercle Brugge has managed only 2 points and struggles defensively. This disparity in momentum and heavily favors Charleroi, who have demonstrated consistency in both scoring and defending, making them the likely winners based on current form data.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Charleroi wins

2Draws

4Cercle Brugge wins

07 Feb 2026Charleroi v Cercle Brugge3-4

14 Sep 2025Cercle Brugge v Charleroi2-3

25 Jan 2025Charleroi v Cercle Brugge1-1

03 Nov 2024Cercle Brugge v Charleroi2-0

09 Mar 2024Charleroi v Cercle Brugge0-0

05 Aug 2023Cercle Brugge v Charleroi2-0

Market aligned with main pickCharleroi to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

The 10 previous meetings show a moderately high average goal count of 3.4, but recent tactical adjustments and form shifts mean historical results offer limited predictive power. Charleroi's current defensive strength and Cercle Brugge's offensive struggles suggest the head-to-head goal trends may not fully replicate in this match.

Season team stats

Jupiler Pro League

Charleroi6

Played

Cercle Brugge6

Charleroi2

Avg goals for

Cercle Brugge1

Charleroi0.8

Avg goals against

Cercle Brugge1.8

Charleroi3

Clean sheets

Cercle Brugge0

Market aligned with main pickCharleroi to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

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Charleroi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

Over the season, Charleroi's attack has been productive, averaging 1.8 goals per game, while maintaining a tight defense conceding only 0.8 goals. Cercle Brugge's season stats reveal offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities, with only 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match. These season-long trends underpin Charleroi's superiority and support the home win selection.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
4	Charleroi	15	6	5	0	1	7
15	Cercle Brugge	3	6	0	3	3	-5

Charleroi's 4th place standing with 15 points contrasts sharply with Cercle Brugge's 15th position and 3 points, reflecting a significant gulf in league performance. While standings alone do not determine outcomes, the pressure on Cercle Brugge to improve and Charleroi's push to maintain top-table status add context to the fixture's competitive stakes.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Charleroi Over 2.5

40%Cercle Brugge Over 2.5

3.4H2H avg goals

The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3.4 goals, indicating a relatively open fixture historically. However, current form and defensive solidity suggest this match may see fewer goals, with a controlled tempo and fewer high-scoring exchanges than past encounters.

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Betting context

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Football Stats Hub

Charleroi v Cercle Brugge Stats

Match Report

Charleroi to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Cercle Brugge

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Charleroi v Cercle Brugge Stats

Match Report

Charleroi to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

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Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Charleroi

Cercle Brugge

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