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Aalesund crestAalesund
v
Valerenga crestValerenga

Eliteserien | Sun 16 Aug, 13:30

Aalesund v Valerenga Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Eliteserien clash features Aalesund and Valerenga, two teams with contrasting league positions and offensive profiles. Aalesund, struggling near the bottom, have conceded heavily but also show a willingness to attack, while Valerenga, sitting mid-table, boast a more potent offense. Both sides have recent matches with multiple goals, suggesting an open game. The tactical setup likely encourages attacking play from both teams, with Aalesund needing points and Valerenga aiming to climb higher, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Aalesund concedes an average of 3.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Valerenga scores 2 goals per game on average, showing strong attacking form.
  • Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates: Aalesund at 60%, Valerenga at 100%.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 3.9 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.
  • Valerenga averages 17 shots per game with 6.4 on target, reflecting offensive pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model projects a 57.9% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, above the implied market chance of 52.4%, indicating positive value. Both teams exhibit attacking tendencies and defensive frailties, with Aalesund conceding heavily and Valerenga maintaining a high shot volume and goal output. The recent head-to-head average of nearly 4 goals per game reinforces the likelihood of a goal-rich match. No data limitations affect , supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance57.9%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance52.4%
Neutral
Aalesund Goals Against3.2 per game
Strong positive
Valerenga Goals For2 per game
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.9 goals
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Aalesund's defensive struggles meet Valerenga's offensive efficiency. The data supports a high-scoring match with both teams likely to contribute goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection based on tactical needs and recent scoring trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“This fixture combines Aalesund's defensive vulnerabilities with Valerenga's attacking prowess, creating fertile ground for multiple goals. The statistical indicators and tactical context align well for a high-scoring encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Aalesund concedes an average of 3.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Valerenga scores 2 goals per game on average, showing strong attacking form.

Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates: Aalesund at 60%, Valerenga at 100%.

Recent head-to-head matches average 3.9 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals tally stands at 3.9, indicating a consistent trend toward high-scoring games.
  • This sample suggests a fast tempo and open play style between these teams, with defensive gaps and attacking transitions contributing to frequent goal opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aalesund1.4
Avg goals scored
Valerenga2
Aalesund3.2
Avg goals conceded
Valerenga2.4
Aalesund100%
BTTS rate
Valerenga60%
Aalesund60%
Over 2.5 goals
Valerenga100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +7.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Both teams show strong tendencies toward goals and BTTS outcomes, with Aalesund scoring and conceding frequently and Valerenga maintaining a perfect Over 2.5 Goals rate recently. The head-to-head average of 3.9 goals further underscores the propensity for multiple goals and both sides finding the net.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionValerenga Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Valerenga to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Aalesund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced at reflecting a 52.4% implied chance, while the model estimates a higher 57.9% probability, offering a modest . This suggests the market slightly underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making the bet a reasonable choice without major price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Aalesund5.2
Avg corners for
Valerenga6.4
Aalesund12.6
Avg total corners
Valerenga12.8
Aalesund1
Avg yellow cards
Valerenga2
Aalesund15.6
Avg shots
Valerenga17
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 82% · edge -7 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Valerenga averages 6.4 corners and 17 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure, while Aalesund contributes 5.2 corners and 15.6 shots, supporting an open game with frequent wide attacks and set-piece opportunities. Card averages remain moderate, suggesting disciplined play that favors continuous attacking phases.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aalesund

DLDLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
09 Aug 2026A Ham-Kam1-1
02 Aug 2026H Tromso2-6
26 Jul 2026H Viking1-1
16 Jul 2026A Valerenga1-6
11 Jul 2026H Molde2-2

Valerenga

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
08 Aug 2026H Bodo/Glimt1-2
31 Jul 2026H Ham-Kam0-3
26 Jul 2026A Brann3-2
16 Jul 2026H Aalesund6-1
11 Jul 2026A Tromso0-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 69% · edge +14.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Valerenga Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Valerenga to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Aalesund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Aalesund to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Recent form data shows Aalesund scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 3.2 per game, while Valerenga scores 2 and concedes 2.4, with both sides frequently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Valerenga's perfect Over 2.5 rate and Aalesund's 60% rate highlight a trend toward high-scoring encounters in their latest fixtures.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Aalesund wins
3Draws
7Valerenga wins
16 Jul 2026Valerenga v Aalesund6-1
24 Sep 2024Valerenga v Aalesund4-1
11 May 2024Aalesund v Valerenga0-2
17 Sep 2023Valerenga v Aalesund3-1
10 Apr 2023Aalesund v Valerenga0-1
07 Aug 2022Valerenga v Aalesund4-0
Best odds for this sectionValerenga to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Aalesund to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The ten previous meetings between Aalesund and Valerenga have produced an average of 3.9 goals per game, supporting a pattern of open, attacking encounters. While the sample is moderate, the consistent high goal count provides a meaningful background for expecting a similar outcome in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Eliteserien

Aalesund17
Played
Valerenga17
Aalesund1.6
Avg goals for
Valerenga1.6
Aalesund2.4
Avg goals against
Valerenga2
Aalesund0
Clean sheets
Valerenga2
Best odds for this sectionValerenga Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Valerenga to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Aalesund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Aalesund to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Season-long statistics reveal Aalesund's defensive fragility with 3.2 goals conceded per game, contrasting with Valerenga's stronger attack averaging 2 goals per game and high shot volumes. Both teams' Over 2.5 Goals rates (60% and 100%) reflect a season pattern favoring matches with multiple goals, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Valerenga2117638-6
15Aalesund1517296-14
Aalesund's position near the bottom of the table with 14 points contrasts with Valerenga's mid-table standing at 20 points, indicating differing stakes. Aalesund's need to recover points may drive attacking urgency, while Valerenga's stable position allows for offensive freedom, both factors encouraging a goal-rich game.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Aalesund Over 2.5
100%Valerenga Over 2.5
3.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals tally stands at 3.9, indicating a consistent trend toward high-scoring games. This sample suggests a fast tempo and open play style between these teams, with defensive gaps and attacking transitions contributing to frequent goal opportunities.

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