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Sarpsborg 08 FF crestSarpsborg 08 FF
v
Sandefjord crestSandefjord

Eliteserien | Sun 16 Aug, 16:00

Sarpsborg 08 FF v Sandefjord Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF hosts Sandefjord in an Eliteserien clash where Sarpsborg's recent form and home advantage set the tone. Sarpsborg has collected 22 points and sits comfortably mid-table, while Sandefjord struggles with just 15 points and a lower league position. Sarpsborg's attack shows more consistency, averaging 1.2 goals per game compared to Sandefjord's 0.6, and their defense concedes fewer goals. The tactical setup favors Sarpsborg's balanced approach, with Sandefjord needing to overcome recent scoring difficulties to challenge effectively.

BT4Y best bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF to Win

  • Sarpsborg 08 FF holds a strong 74% to win, indicating clear value at current .
  • Sarpsborg averages 14.8 shots and 3.6 shots on target per game, outpacing Sandefjord's 11.8 shots and 2.4 on target.
  • Sandefjord concedes 1.8 goals per game, nearly double Sarpsborg's 1.0, highlighting defensive vulnerability.
  • Sarpsborg's recent form shows 8 points gained versus Sandefjord's 1 point, reflecting momentum disparity.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3.9 goals, suggesting open play but Sarpsborg's better balance favors a home win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sarpsborg 08 FF to win with a 74% chance, supported by superior recent form, stronger offensive output, and a more resilient defense. Sarpsborg's higher shot volume and better goal conversion underpin the , while Sandefjord's defensive frailties and poor recent results reduce their chances. The offer positive value given the implied chance is significantly lower than the model's forecast. This pick reflects both statistical strength and tactical stability for Sarpsborg at home.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsSarpsborg 8 vs Sandefjord 1
Strong positive
Goals Conceded Per GameSarpsborg 1.0 vs Sandefjord 1.8
Strong positive
Shots on Target Per GameSarpsborg 3.6 vs Sandefjord 2.4
Positive
Value Edge18.4%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sarpsborg 08 FF's superior recent form and home advantage make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their balanced attack and tighter defense contrast with Sandefjord's struggles, providing a solid foundation for a home win. The data and tactical context align well, supporting in Sarpsborg's ability to control the match and claim three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sarpsborg's consistent offensive pressure combined with Sandefjord's defensive lapses creates a clear pathway for a home win. The statistical edge and form momentum strongly favor Sarpsborg to capitalize on this opportunity.”

Key Data Signals

Sarpsborg 08 FF to Win evidence

Sarpsborg 08 FF holds a strong 74% to win, indicating clear value at current .

Sarpsborg averages 14.8 shots and 3.6 shots on target per game, outpacing Sandefjord's 11.8 shots and 2.4 on target.

Sandefjord concedes 1.8 goals per game, nearly double Sarpsborg's 1.0, highlighting defensive vulnerability.

Sarpsborg's recent form shows 8 points gained versus Sandefjord's 1 point, reflecting momentum disparity.

What To Watch In The Data

Sarpsborg 08 FF to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.9, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
  • This trend suggests a match tempo that could favor attacking play, although Sarpsborg's stronger defense may limit Sandefjord's scoring chances, potentially keeping the total goals moderate.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sarpsborg 08 FF5.4
Avg corners for
Sandefjord4.2
Sarpsborg 08 FF10.8
Avg total corners
Sandefjord10.4
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.6
Avg yellow cards
Sandefjord1.8
Sarpsborg 08 FF14.8
Avg shots
Sandefjord11.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.6 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Sarpsborg averages more corners (5.4) and shots (14.8) per game than Sandefjord, reflecting territorial control and sustained pressure. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, indicating a balanced disciplinary profile. Sarpsborg's higher shot accuracy and volume increase their chances of creating dangerous situations from open play and set pieces.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sarpsborg 08 FF1.2
Avg goals scored
Sandefjord0.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF1
Avg goals conceded
Sandefjord1.8
Sarpsborg 08 FF40%
BTTS rate
Sandefjord40%
Sarpsborg 08 FF40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sandefjord60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 88% · edge -7.8 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Both teams have moderate BTTS rates at 40%, but Sarpsborg's stronger attack and Sandefjord's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a higher chance of goals from the home side. The average goals in their head-to-head matches is 3.9, indicating potential for an open game with scoring opportunities, though Sandefjord's lower scoring rate tempers expectations for a high-scoring contest.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The current for Sarpsborg 08 FF to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model estimating a 74% chance against an implied market chance of 55.6%. This significant suggests the market underestimates Sarpsborg's likelihood of victory, making the price attractive for bettors seeking a confident home win.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sarpsborg 08 FF

LDWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
08 Aug 2026A Viking1-2
02 Aug 2026A Molde3-3
26 Jul 2026H Ham-Kam1-0
18 Jul 2026A Kristiansund BK0-0
12 Jul 2026H Viking1-0

Sandefjord

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
07 Aug 2026H KFUM Oslo0-1
01 Aug 2026A Fredrikstad0-1
26 Jul 2026H Bodo/Glimt0-3
18 Jul 2026A Viking1-2
12 Jul 2026H Ham-Kam2-2
Market aligned with main pickSarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Sarpsborg 08 FF has gained 8 points in recent matches, showcasing improved attacking efficiency and defensive solidity. In contrast, Sandefjord's form is poor with only 1 point, reflecting struggles to score and contain opponents. This momentum gap favors Sarpsborg's and tactical execution heading into the fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Sarpsborg 08 FF wins
1Draws
3Sandefjord wins
22 Mar 2026Sandefjord v Sarpsborg 08 FF0-2
14 Sep 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF v Sandefjord2-1
26 Jul 2025Sandefjord v Sarpsborg 08 FF3-2
07 May 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF v Sandefjord3-1
04 Aug 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF v Sandefjord2-1
12 May 2024Sandefjord v Sarpsborg 08 FF4-1
Market aligned with main pickSarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The ten previous meetings between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord show an average of 3.9 goals per game, reflecting open contests. While Sarpsborg has generally had the upper hand, the sample indicates competitive matches. This background supports Sarpsborg's home win prospects but also signals that Sandefjord can pose offensive threats if given space.
Season team stats

Eliteserien

Sarpsborg 08 FF17
Played
Sandefjord17
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.2
Avg goals for
Sandefjord0.9
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.4
Avg goals against
Sandefjord1.4
Sarpsborg 08 FF4
Clean sheets
Sandefjord4
Market aligned with main pickSarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Sarpsborg's season stats reveal a balanced attack averaging 1.2 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 1.0 goal per match. Sandefjord's lower scoring rate of 0.6 and higher concession rate of 1.8 highlight defensive weaknesses and offensive inefficiency, reinforcing Sarpsborg's advantage in controlling the game's tempo and outcome.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Sarpsborg 08 FF2217647-3
13Sandefjord1817539-8
Sarpsborg 08 FF sits 8th with 22 points, comfortably above Sandefjord in 13th with 15 points. While the table position reflects Sarpsborg's steadier season, the gap also adds pressure on Sandefjord to improve results. This context supports Sarpsborg's motivation to consolidate their mid-table status with a home win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sarpsborg 08 FF Over 2.5
60%Sandefjord Over 2.5
3.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.9, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals. This trend suggests a match tempo that could favor attacking play, although Sarpsborg's stronger defense may limit Sandefjord's scoring chances, potentially keeping the total goals moderate.

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Fixture links

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