1. FC Köln

Werder Bremen

Bundesliga | Sat 12 Sep, 17:30

1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Bundesliga fixture between 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen features two mid-table sides with identical points and similar recent scoring records. Both teams have shown attacking intent early in the season, with each scoring two goals and conceding around three in their opening matches. Their matches have consistently produced high goal counts and both teams have a 100% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, setting the stage for an open, end-to-end encounter with multiple scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

Both teams have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season
Average goals per game in recent matches exceed 3 for both sides
FC Köln averages 18 shots per game with 5.5 on target
Werder Bremen's matches feature high shot accuracy and attacking pressure
H2H meetings average 3.2 goals, indicating a history of open games

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 58% chance against an implied 43.5%, reflecting a 14.5% . Both teams have demonstrated prolific attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities, with 1. FC Köln averaging 18 shots and Werder Bremen 12 per match. The high shot volume and recent form data support a game with multiple goals. The historical average of 3.2 goals per meeting further reinforces the likelihood of a high-scoring game. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Chance58%

Strong positive

Implied Chance43.5%

Strong positive

Value Edge14.5%

Strong positive

Recent Over 2.5 Rate100% both teams

Strong positive

Average Shots per Game1. FC Köln 18, Werder Bremen 12

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen have shown strong offensive output early in the season. The combination of high shot volumes and defensive frailties suggests multiple goals are likely. This match offers a compelling case for Over 3.5 Goals based on current form and historical scoring patterns.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture promises a lively encounter with both teams pushing forward aggressively, creating numerous chances. The statistical indicators strongly favor a high-scoring game, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season

Average goals per game in recent matches exceed 3 for both sides

FC Köln averages 18 shots per game with 5.5 on target

Werder Bremen's matches feature high shot accuracy and attacking pressure

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.2, indicating a history of open and attacking matches between these sides.
This trend suggests a natural propensity for games with multiple goals, supporting the Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 goals markets in this fixture.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

1. FC Köln2

Avg goals scored

Werder Bremen2

1. FC Köln3

Avg goals conceded

Werder Bremen2.5

1. FC Köln100%

BTTS rate

Werder Bremen100%

1. FC Köln100%

Over 2.5 goals

Werder Bremen100%

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +14.5 pts

2.3

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.53

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.5

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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%

1.17

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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

2.5

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%

2.5

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Both teams have consistently produced matches with multiple goals and both teams scoring, as reflected in their 100% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates this season. The attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a game where both sides find the net and the goal tally surpasses three.

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Useful next reads

more Bundesliga analysis corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles latest football stats main football hub today's predictions best bets research acca fixture filtering

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts

1.53

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.5

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Werder Bremen to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%

3.3

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Werder Bremen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%

2.25

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DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%

3.8

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1. FC Köln Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 51%

1.62

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1. FC Köln to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%

2.05

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The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively with a 2.3 reflecting a 43.5% implied chance, while the model estimates a 58% probability. This significant indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making this a positive value bet with standard staking recommended.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

1. FC Köln7

Avg corners for

Werder Bremen3.5

1. FC Köln15.5

Avg total corners

Werder Bremen10

1. FC Köln1.5

Avg yellow cards

Werder Bremen1

1. FC Köln18

Avg shots

Werder Bremen10.5

Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 46% · edge +1.8 pts

2.2

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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

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FC Köln averages seven corners per game compared to Werder Bremen's two, indicating territorial advantage and sustained pressure. Shot volumes are high for both, with Köln averaging 18 shots and Bremen 12, supporting an open game with frequent attacking sequences. Discipline is moderate, with Köln averaging 1.5 yellow cards and Bremen 1, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

1. FC Köln

Last 51W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 1L

04 Sep 2026A VfB Stuttgart1-4

29 Aug 2026H 1899 Hoffenheim3-2

Werder Bremen

Last 51W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 1L

05 Sep 2026H RB Leipzig3-1

30 Aug 2026A SC Freiburg1-4

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +14.9 pts

1.73

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Werder Bremen to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%

3.3

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Werder Bremen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%

2.25

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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%

3.8

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1. FC Köln Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 51%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

1. FC Köln to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%

2.05

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Recent form strongly supports Over 3.5 Goals as both teams have scored and conceded multiple goals in their opening matches. Each side has a perfect record of games exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting attacking intent and defensive openness that is likely to continue in this fixture.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

31. FC Köln wins

4Draws

3Werder Bremen wins

12 Apr 20261. FC Köln v Werder Bremen3-1

29 Nov 2025Werder Bremen v 1. FC Köln1-1

16 Feb 20241. FC Köln v Werder Bremen0-1

23 Sep 2023Werder Bremen v 1. FC Köln2-1

20 May 2023Werder Bremen v 1. FC Köln1-1

21 Jan 20231. FC Köln v Werder Bremen7-1

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts

1.53

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.5

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Werder Bremen to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%

3.3

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DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%

3.8

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1. FC Köln to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

The head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen shows an average of 3.2 goals per game across their last ten encounters. This historical data supports the expectation of a high-scoring match, reflecting both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities in direct clashes.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Bundesliga

1. FC Köln2

Played

Werder Bremen2

1. FC Köln2

Avg goals for

Werder Bremen2

1. FC Köln3

Avg goals against

Werder Bremen2.5

1. FC Köln0

Clean sheets

Werder Bremen0

Best odds for this sectionWerder Bremen to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 30% · edge +13.2 pts

3.3

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Werder Bremen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%

2.25

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1. FC Köln Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 51%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

1. FC Köln to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%

2.05

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Season-long statistics reveal both teams maintain high attacking outputs and porous defenses, with 1. FC Köln conceding 3 goals and Werder Bremen 2.5 on average. Their matches frequently surpass 3.5 goals, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter based on sustained offensive and defensive patterns.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
10	Werder Bremen	3	2	1	0	1	-1
11	1. FC Köln	3	2	1	0	1	-2

Both teams sit mid-table with identical points, indicating no immediate pressure to adopt ultra-defensive tactics. This league position allows for an open game approach, increasing the chances of multiple goals as both sides seek to climb the standings with positive results.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%1. FC Köln Over 2.5

100%Werder Bremen Over 2.5

3.2H2H avg goals

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.2, indicating a history of open and attacking matches between these sides. This trend suggests a natural propensity for games with multiple goals, supporting the Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 goals markets in this fixture.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

1. FC Köln

Werder Bremen

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Football Stats Hub

1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

1. FC Köln

Werder Bremen

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