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Can Pisa’s aerial edge disrupt Como’s possession rhythm in this Serie A mismatch on paper? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Como are currently competing for a top-four spot and have maintained a strong defensive record with two consecutive clean sheets. In contrast, Pisa are bottom of the league with only one win in 18 games. Pisa are also missing their most productive aerial threat and goalscorer, M'Bala Nzola, and a key defender in Raúl Albiol. With Como averaging over 60% possession and possessing much higher technical quality in midfield, they are well-placed to dominate territory and capitalize on Pisa's weakness in defending against skillful players and set pieces.
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This scoreline accounts for Como's defensive stability and Pisa's lack of offensive output. Pisa have scored just 13 goals in 18 matches and will be without their main attacking reference. Como have proven they can keep clean sheets against struggling sides and possess enough attacking depth to score multiple times, especially through Nico Paz and direct free kicks. A 0-2 result reflects a controlled away performance where the superior side capitalizes on chances without overextending themselves, aligning with the expected flow of a possession-based team versus a low-block physical side.
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Pisa vs Como Predictions and Best Bets
Pisa vs Como — bet365 Market Snapshot
Explore key match outcomes and illustrative probabilities with live bet365 pricing.
Como arrive as strong favourites given the current table positions, with the market reflecting Pisa’s significant struggle for points.
Low-scoring scorelines in favour of the away side lead the market, following Como’s recent trend of clean sheets.
A tight encounter is expected, with the Under 2.5 market carrying higher implied probability than the Over.
- Possession versus pressure: Como average 60.1% possession with 86.0% pass accuracy, while Pisa sit at 40.3% and 76.6%, shaping a likely siege-and-survive game state.
- Shot volumes hint at the pattern: Como take 13.8 shots per match compared to Pisa’s 9.9, suggesting the visitors create more frequent finishing situations across 90 minutes.
- Nico Paz’s influence is huge: Six Serie A goals and six assists underline why Como can turn patient build-up into end product, especially when games hinge on one decisive action.
Control of Play: Average Possession
A comparison of how much each team looks to dictate the ball, contrasting Como’s build-up style with Pisa’s direct approach.
Their 86% pass success rate supports a season built on controlling central zones and patient territory gain.
Pisa are comfortable playing in their own half and using long balls, reflecting a lower reliance on sustained possession.
Attacking Intent: Shots Per Match
Visualising the frequency with which each side creates scoring opportunities during their league fixtures.
Led by Nico Paz, the visitors consistently find ways to test opposition goalkeepers throughout 90 minutes.
With fewer opportunities on goal, the home side relies heavily on set pieces and individual moments.
Pisa’s Tuesday evening at the Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani comes with a familiar knot in the stomach: the season has been a grind, the table is unforgiving, and the visitors arrive with their confidence topped up. Como, described as top-four contenders chasing European football, head to Tuscany on the back of back-to-back wins without conceding, and with a broader Serie A record that keeps them in the top six.
Pisa’s predicament is laid out just as starkly. They’ve won once all season, sit 20th with 12 points from 18 matches, and have been stuck in a run where victories are hard to come by. Recent results underline it: defeats at home to Inter and Juventus, a loss at Lecce, and draws away at Cagliari and Genoa. Even when the game has felt close, it’s often slipped away in the key moments.
That’s why this fixture is so interesting. Como bring a possession-heavy identity and a cluster of creative strengths, but Pisa are built to compete physically and directly — very strong in aerial duels, prepared to play in their own half, and happy to go long. When two styles like that meet, the match often gets decided not by who has the prettiest patterns, but by who controls the ugly bits: second balls, set-piece phases, and the moments when a clearance turns into a counter.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Pisa’s possible starting XI is listed as: Semper; Canestrelli, Caracciolo, Bonfanti; Touré, Léris, Aebischer, Højholt, Angori; Moreo, Nzola. That points towards the 3-5-2 shape they’ve used most often, and it fits their stylistic profile: width from the flanks, crosses, long balls and lots of bodies behind the ball when defending.
There is, however, a clear complication in the squad notes. The injuries and suspensions list includes Ebenezer Akinsanmiro (called up to national team), Raúl Albiol (suspended), M’Bala Nzola (called up to national team), and Calvin Stengs (groin surgery, until 26.01.2026). That matters because it affects who Pisa can actually lean on for control and for finishing. If Nzola isn’t available, it changes the tone of Pisa’s front line dramatically — because his league record includes three goals and he’s a major aerial reference in their squad profile.
Como’s possible starting XI is listed as: Butez; Smolcic, Ramon, Carlos, Valle; Da Cunha, Caqueret; Vojvoda, Paz, Rodriguez; with the final forward line not fully shown in the line-up snippet. Even so, the shape reads like a 4-2-3-1, which matches Como’s most-used formation. It also puts their most influential attacker, Nico Paz, in the central band of the pitch where he’s been so productive — six league goals and six assists, plus a standout rating.
From a balance point of view, that likely means Como will try to build patiently through the middle, while Pisa will look to make the game messy, break up rhythm, and force the visitors into defending deliveries and second phases rather than simply playing keep-ball in comfort.
How the Match Could Be Played
This is a classic “territory versus possession” set-up. Como’s style points towards short passes, possession football, and controlling central zones with through balls and long shots as the final punch. Pisa’s style points towards long balls, crosses and width, with a willingness to spend long spells in their own half.
So the big tactical question becomes: where does the ball spend its time, and what does each team do when they lose it?
If Como establish their usual rhythm, you’d expect them to use their double pivot — Da Cunha and Caqueret — to keep the ball moving, with Paz floating into pockets to receive and turn. Paz’s output suggests he doesn’t just knit play together; he finishes it too. Six goals and six assists is not a “nice little season” return — it’s the heartbeat of a side that want to threaten in multiple ways. Add Rodriguez on the left, and Como have a clear route to dragging Pisa’s right side around: pull a wing-back out, slip a pass inside, and attack the space that opens.
Pisa’s best response, based on their strengths and weaknesses, is not to get drawn into a slow passing contest. They’re marked weak at keeping possession and weak at finishing chances, but very strong in aerial duels and set up to play with width. That points to an approach where Pisa look for early balls into the front two, then flood the second ball zone with midfield runners. Touré stands out here: he’s listed with 5.3 aerials won per match and has been one of Pisa’s higher-rated players. If Pisa can turn Como’s clearance into a 50/50, Touré is exactly the kind of player who can turn that into a platform.
The wing areas could decide the game. Pisa are labelled weak at defending against attacks down the wings and weak at defending against skilful players. Como are not shy about attacking through the middle, but they also have tools to isolate wide defenders and create 1v1s — particularly if Vojvoda and Rodriguez can stretch the pitch and force Pisa’s wing-backs deeper. If Pisa’s wide players get pinned into a back five for long spells, the home side’s attacking outlet becomes narrower: you end up clearing the ball and watching it come straight back.
That said, Como have their own glaring flaw: “stopping opponents from creating chances” is listed as very weak. That is the crack Pisa will try to pick at. The home side don’t need long spells of possession to create chances; they need moments. A quick switch into a crossing zone, a set piece delivered into a crowded box, or one loose ball dropping for a shot — those are Pisa’s opportunities to turn a match of endurance into something more even.
Set pieces are another obvious battleground. Pisa are rated very weak at defending set pieces, which is a worry against a team described as very strong at shooting from direct free kicks. If Como win fouls in those zones, they can threaten without needing open-play breaks. Pisa, meanwhile, will view their own set pieces as a way to lean into their aerial strength, but they’ll also need to be ruthless in the box, because the broader trend of “finishing scoring chances” being weak has been reflected in their output across 18 league matches.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The league table context does a lot of the talking. Pisa are 20th with 12 points from 18 games, having scored 13 and conceded 25. Como are sixth with 30 points from 17 games, scoring 23 and conceding 12. That gap matters because it suggests Como have been more stable at both ends — creating enough and conceding relatively little — while Pisa have struggled to turn games into goals.
Team style numbers sharpen that further. Pisa average 9.9 shots per game with 40.3% possession and a 76.6% pass success rate. That points to a side who are not living in the opposition half; they’re having to work for their moments. Como average 13.8 shots per game with 60.1% possession and an 86.0% pass success rate, which supports the idea of sustained pressure and controlled build-up. When a team completes passes at that rate while holding that level of possession, it often means they can keep attacks alive even if the first opening doesn’t appear.
The “recent match” breakdown adds texture too. Pisa have scored in 8 of their last 20 matches, while Como have scored in 13 of their last 19. That matters because it frames the mental side of the match: Pisa can’t rely on goals arriving naturally; Como can arrive believing their patterns will create at least a few high-quality moments.
Individual numbers highlight the likely match-winners. For Como, Nico Paz stands above everyone: six goals, six assists, and seven man-of-the-match awards in Serie A. That combination suggests influence across phases — not just arriving late in the box, but creating for others too. For Pisa, the main scorers are Moreo and Nzola with three each, but with Nzola listed as called up, the burden of turning pressure into goals leans even more heavily on those remaining in the XI.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first key moment is Pisa’s ability to turn aerial dominance into actual momentum. They’re rated very strong in aerial duels and their squad numbers back that up through Touré and the centre-backs. If Pisa can win first contact and then win the second ball, they can force Como into defending deeper than they want — and that alone can disrupt a possession side’s comfort.
The second is Como’s use of the central pocket around Paz. Pisa are listed as weak defending skilful players, and Paz’s output suggests he’s exactly that kind of problem. If Como can get him receiving between midfield and defence, the match can swing quickly: one turn, one through ball, and Pisa are running back towards their own goal.
The third is set-piece discipline. Pisa’s weakness at defending set pieces is a clear danger, while Como are rated very strong from direct free kicks. For a home side already fighting for points, giving away cheap fouls around the box is the sort of habit that turns a tight game into a long night.
What could go wrong with this read? Football has a habit of laughing at neat plans. If Como dominate the ball but switch off for one second ball, Pisa can create a big chance without needing “control”. And if Pisa survive long spells and keep the scoreline tight, the game can become about patience, nerves, and the kind of ricochet that nobody draws on a tactics board.
Best Bet for Pisa vs Como
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Como to win
The case for Como securing a victory in Tuscany is built on a significant gulf in both current form and technical execution. Sitting 20th in the table with just 12 points from 18 matches, Pisa have managed only a single win all season. Their recent trajectory includes home defeats to Inter and Juventus alongside losses at Lecce, illustrating a persistent struggle to compete with higher-caliber opposition. Conversely, Como enter this fixture as top-four contenders with their sights set on European qualification. They have secured back-to-back victories without conceding a single goal and maintain a top-six ranking in Serie A, suggesting a defensive solidity that matches their offensive ambitions.
The tactical matchup further favors the visitors. Como are a possession-heavy side, averaging 60.1% of the ball and an 86% pass success rate. This allows them to dictate the tempo of the game, a contrast to Pisa’s 40.3% possession. Pisa’s defensive vulnerabilities are specifically noted in their struggle against skillful players and wing-based attacks; this is a major concern when facing Nico Paz, who has registered six goals and six assists this season. While Pisa are aerially dominant and look to use long balls and crosses, their finishing is rated as weak, having scored only 13 goals in 18 games.
Personnel issues also tilt the scales. Pisa will be missing key figures including Raúl Albiol through suspension and M’Bala Nzola due to international duty. The absence of Nzola is particularly damaging, as he is one of their primary goalscorers and a focal point for their aerial directness. Without these pillars, Pisa may struggle to contain a Como side that averages 13.8 shots per game. Given that Pisa are also very weak at defending set pieces and Como are very strong at shooting from direct free kicks, the visitors have multiple avenues to find the net while maintaining the control necessary to see out a result.
What could go wrong Pisa are physically imposing and lead the league in aerial duels won, which can make them dangerous during chaotic second-ball situations or set pieces. If they can disrupt Como’s rhythm and force a “messy” game where possession matters less than physicality, they could frustrate the visitors and potentially snatch a point or a narrow win against the run of play.
Correct score lean
0-2
A 0-2 victory for Como is highly consistent with the statistical trends and tactical landscape of this matchup. Como have shown a recent penchant for defensive discipline, arriving on the back of consecutive clean sheets. Facing a Pisa attack that is missing M’Bala Nzola and has failed to score in more than half of its recent fixtures, a shutout for the visitors is a strong possibility. Offensively, Como average nearly 14 shots per game and possess the creative spark of Nico Paz to break down a Pisa defense that has conceded 25 goals this campaign. A two-goal margin reflects Como’s superior quality without assuming an improbable blowout.
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