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Can Parma continue their winning momentum, or will Cagliari’s historic dominance at the Tardini prevail once again? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Cagliari hold a significant psychological edge, remaining undefeated in their last eight Serie A meetings with Parma. Despite Parma’s recent winning streak, their historical struggle against Fabio Pisacane’s side and Cagliari’s ability to recover from losing positions make the Double Chance a high-value selection for this encounter.
Read Rationale ▾
With both sides separated by just three points and showing similar recent form, a stalemate is highly plausible. Cagliari’s defensive vulnerabilities at set-pieces could allow Parma to score, but the visitors’ resilience and strong head-to-head record suggest they will find an equaliser in a tightly contested match.
Readers’ Tip
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Friday night at Stadio Ennio Tardini has the feel of a proper Serie A pressure test as 12th-placed Parma host 13th-placed Cagliari. Both sides have won three of their last six matches, setting the stage for a tense encounter.
Parma vs Cagliari — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Cagliari’s undefeated eight-game run against Parma creates a balanced 1X2 market despite Parma’s three straight Serie A wins.
Both sides sit in mid-table with modest scoring records this term, making a low-scoring affair a significant statistical trend.
A 1–1 draw aligns with the tight possession stats and Cagliari’s resilient historical run in this specific head-to-head fixture.
Cagliari’s heavy card count of 62 yellows suggests a high-pressure defensive style that frequently leads to fouls in dangerous areas.
Match Preview: Mid-Table Battle at the Tardini
Friday night at Stadio Ennio Tardini has the feel of a proper Serie A pressure test — not because either side is panicking, but because neither can afford to relax. Parma sit 12th with 32 points, just above 13th-placed Cagliari on 29, and both have won three of their last six league matches.
Parma’s mood is sky-high after that statement win at San Siro — a third straight league victory and a reminder that Carlos Cuesta has them competing with real bite. But there’s a snag: Cagliari have made a habit of tormenting Parma in this head-to-head, and Fabio Pisacane brings a side that can scrap, counter, and stay alive late.
Kick-off is 19:45.
Match Discipline: Fouls Committed Comparison
Cagliari’s aggressive approach is reflected in their significantly higher foul count compared to Parma this season.
Parma maintain a cleaner record, which helps them avoid giving away unnecessary set-piece opportunities.
The visitors’ high foul volume could be a vulnerability against Parma’s set-piece attacking strength.
Attacking Output: Season Goals Scored
While Parma sit higher in the table, Cagliari have managed to find the net more frequently across the campaign.
Despite taking 11.5 shots per game, Parma’s goal tally remains lower than their upcoming opponents.
Cagliari’s attacking personnel has been more clinical, outscoring Parma by nine goals so far.
- Late-Game Nerve: Parma arrive after three straight Serie A wins, capped by Mariano Troilo’s VAR-awarded late strike at San Siro to go eight clear of the drop.
- This Fixture Tilts One Way: Cagliari are undefeated in their last eight Serie A meetings with Parma, including four straight league wins — a mental edge you can’t ignore.
- Discipline Could Decide It: Cagliari rack up 62 yellow cards and 440 fouls, while Parma sit on 48 yellows and 307 fouls — that gap screams danger in set-piece zones.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Parma Team News
- M. Frigan (cruciate ligament tear) — out until 28.02.2026
- Benjamín Cremaschi (called up to national team)
- N. Ndiaye (inflammation of pubic bone)
- Pontus Almqvist (hamstring strain) — out until 28.03.2026
Cagliari Team News
No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Probable Parma XI (3-5-2)
Corvi; Circati, Troilo, Valenti; Del Prato, Bernabé, Keita, Sorensen, Valeri; Strefezza; Pellegrino
Probable Cagliari XI
Caprile; Ze Pedro, Rodriguez, Dossena, Obert; Palestra, Adopo, Sulemana, Idrissi; Esposito, Kiliçsoy
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Serie A) | Parma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 13th |
| Points | 32 | 29 |
| Goals scored (26 apps) | 19 | 28 |
| Goals conceded | 31 | 35 |
| Shots per game | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| Possession | 44.0% | 45.6% |
| Pass % | 79.8% | 81.1% |
| Yellow cards | 48 | 62 |
Parma take slightly more shots and play with width, but Cagliari bring the sharper output — 28 league goals to Parma’s 19. Possession is tight, so this doesn’t look like a slow strangling of territory; it looks like a game of moments. And with Cagliari’s heavier discipline, one reckless lunge or cheap foul could swing the momentum in a fixture that’s already been defined by fine margins.
Tactical Battle: Width vs. Transition
When Parma have the ball
Parma aren’t built to hog the ball — their possession sits at 44%, and they’re openly vulnerable when asked to “keep it.” So don’t expect a patient carousel. Expect directness. They like long balls, early crosses, and they take a lot of shots — 11.5 per game — even if the finishing can run cold.
That’s where the Tardini crowd comes in. If Parma turn this into a wave game, with Del Prato and Valeri pushing on and Bernabé feeding runners, you’ll see Cagliari forced into last-ditch defending. Parma also rate strongly at attacking set pieces and protecting the lead — that matters in a matchup where the head-to-head has often been decided by small turning points.
When Cagliari have the ball
Cagliari’s profile is spikier. They’re strong at creating chances using through balls, strong at finishing, and very strong at coming back from losing positions. Translation: even if Parma land the first punch, this can stay live deep into the night.
But there’s an obvious red flag. Cagliari are weak defending set pieces, weak in aerial duels, and very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. That is exactly the kind of self-sabotage that gets punished away from home — especially against a Parma side happy to put the ball into the mixer and back themselves to win second balls.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces: Parma’s strength vs Cagliari’s weakness. One poorly defended corner changes the tone instantly.
- Discipline and territory: Cagliari’s 62 yellows and 440 fouls leaves them living on the edge — especially if Parma keep pinning them back wide.
- First goal timing: Parma’s first goal event average is 47′, while Cagliari’s is 56′ — this could simmer, then suddenly ignite after the break.
- Second balls in the box: Parma’s shot volume and crossing means messy sequences, rebounds, and goalmouth scrambles.
What could go wrong?
Parma’s own weaknesses are loud: keeping possession and finishing chances. If they dominate the territory but don’t land the killer blow, the anxiety rises — and that’s when Cagliari’s “never-say-die” trait in comebacks becomes dangerous. Add the weight of Cagliari’s strong head-to-head run in this fixture, and one Parma mistake can turn the whole night on its head.
📊 Market Explainer
Double Chance (Cagliari or Draw)
This market covers two out of three possible match outcomes. If the game ends in a Cagliari win or a draw, the selection is successful. It offers a safety net for bettors who believe the away side can avoid defeat.
Pros: Higher probability of success; covers the stalemate.
Cons: Lower odds than a straight win.
Correct Score (1-1)
A high-precision market where you predict the exact final scoreline at full-time. It requires both teams to finish the match with exactly one goal each.
Pros: Significant potential returns.
Cons: High volatility; vulnerable to late goals or red cards.
🎯 Pick 1 Rationale: Cagliari to Avoid Defeat
While Parma enter this fixture on the back of three consecutive Serie A victories, including a notable result at San Siro, history suggests they face a significant psychological hurdle on Friday night. Cagliari have established a dominant record in this head-to-head encounter, remaining undefeated in their last eight Serie A meetings with Parma. This streak includes four straight league wins for the Sardinian side, representing a persistent mental edge that often negates current form in high-pressure matches.
Tactical Indicators ⚔️
- Cagliari’s undefeated 8-match streak against Parma provides a historic advantage.
- The visitors possess a higher seasonal goal tally (28) compared to Parma (19).
- Cagliari have shown extreme resilience, being very strong at recovering from losing positions.
Risk Factor: Parma’s current winning momentum and home crowd support could break the historical trend if Cagliari’s discipline issues result in early cards.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Parma rank strongly in attacking set-plays, utilizing high crossing volume to create chaos.
With 440 fouls and 62 yellows, Cagliari are very weak at defending dead-balls and avoiding fouls.
🎯 Pick 2 Rationale: The 1-1 Stalemate
Analysing the league positions and attacking outputs of both clubs, a 1-1 draw emerge as a highly plausible scoreline. Only three points separate the sides in the Serie A table, and their possession statistics are nearly identical at 44% and 45.6% respectively. This suggests a game where territory will be shared, and neither side is likely to dominate the ball for extended periods. Cagliari’s defensive weaknesses at set-pieces and aerial duels are well-documented, providing Parma with a clear path to the net through their high crossing volume.
Scoreline Probability: Parma’s shot volume vs Cagliari’s superior finishing points to a balanced scoring output.
However, Cagliari’s spikier attacking profile—having scored nine more goals than Parma this season—means they are rarely kept quiet. Given Cagliari’s strength in through balls and Parma’s vulnerability when forced to defend for long periods, an equaliser from the visitors is expected. The fact that Parma’s average first goal comes earlier (47′) than Cagliari’s (56′) supports a game state where the hosts lead but the visitors strike back late.
Risk Factor: A reckless lunge leading to a red card for Cagliari (who average many fouls) could open the game up for a late Parma winner.
❓ Interactive Q&A
⊕ What does a Double Chance (Cagliari or Draw) bet mean?
A Double Chance bet allows you to cover two possible outcomes in a single selection. In this case, your bet wins if Cagliari win the match or if it ends in a draw, providing a safety buffer against a Parma victory.
⊕ Why is a 1-1 draw considered a plausible scoreline for this game?
The teams are separated by just three points and have almost identical possession stats. Parma’s set-piece strength against Cagliari’s defensive weaknesses suggests a goal for the hosts, while Cagliari’s higher seasonal scoring tally suggests they can find the net in return.
⊕ How does Cagliari’s discipline record affect the betting outlook?
Cagliari have received 62 yellow cards and committed 440 fouls this season. This high volume of fouls increases the likelihood of Parma scoring from set-pieces, which is one of the hosts’ tactical strengths.
⊕ What is a Correct Score bet?
A Correct Score bet requires you to predict the exact final score of the match at the end of regulation time. It is a high-risk market with higher potential returns because it requires complete accuracy.
⊕ Does Parma’s recent winning streak make them favourites?
While Parma have won three straight games, Cagliari’s eight-match unbeaten run in this specific head-to-head fixture creates a “mental edge.” This makes the match much more balanced than the recent form guide alone might suggest.
⊕ What is the significance of the “First Goal Timing” stat?
Parma score their first goal on average around the 47th minute, while Cagliari strike at the 56th. This points toward Parma potentially taking a lead early in the second half, with Cagliari pushing for a late response.
⊕ Which team has a better attacking output this season?
Cagliari have the better attacking output, having scored 28 league goals compared to Parma’s 19. They are generally more clinical with the chances they create.
⊕ Can Cagliari recover if they fall behind?
Yes, Cagliari are noted for being very strong at coming back from losing positions. This trait is a key reason why they have maintained such a long unbeaten run against Parma.
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