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Can Sunderland’s Stadium of Light unbeaten run survive Manchester City’s winning streak? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Manchester City enter this clash on a six-game winning streak, having scored 19 goals in that period. Their offensive metrics are elite, averaging 14.2 shots per game with Erling Haaland already on 19 goals for the season. Sunderland have been excellent at home but struggle specifically against wing-based attacks—an area where City are exceptionally strong. Historically, this fixture leans toward high scores, with over 2.5 goals occurring in City's last nine games against Sunderland. While Sunderland may resist, City's efficiency should lead to a victory with several goals.
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This scoreline accounts for City's offensive dominance while acknowledging Sunderland's resilience at the Stadium of Light. Sunderland have managed to score in high-pressure games recently, including against Bournemouth and Leeds, and City have shown occasional lapses in protecting leads. However, with City averaging over three goals per game during their current win streak and Haaland’s high shot volume, they are likely to find the net multiple times. A 3-1 result aligns with both teams' scoring trends and City's tactical superiority in wide areas.
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Sunderland vs Manchester City Predictions and Best Bets
Sunderland vs Manchester City — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Market snapshot based on current match performance data and listed pricing.
Manchester City arrive on a six-match winning streak, reflected in their short price to take all three points on Wearside.
With City averaging 3.1 goals per game during their recent run, markets lean heavily toward an open contest.
- Home resilience meets elite momentum: Sunderland are still unbeaten at the Stadium of Light this season, while Manchester City bring a six-match Premier League winning streak into this game.
- Two very different possession worlds: Sunderland average 42.5% possession and 79.0% pass accuracy in the league, compared with Manchester City’s 58.4% possession and 88.2% pass accuracy.
- The headline threat is unavoidable: Erling Haaland has 19 Premier League goals and averages 3.8 shots per game, while Rayan Cherki has 7 assists — a direct warning for any defensive line.
Attacking Volume: League Goals Scored
A comparison of total goals netted across the opening 18 matches of the Premier League campaign.
The home side averages 1.1 goals per game, relying on tactical structure and clinical moments.
City lead the scoring charts, averaging nearly 2.4 goals per game behind high shot volume.
Game Control: Average Possession %
Comfortable playing without the ball, focusing on a solid defensive block and long outlets.
Pep Guardiola’s side prioritises control, pinning opponents into their own defensive third.
Still unbeaten at the Stadium of Light this season, Sunderland welcome Manchester City on 1 January 2026 for a Premier League meeting that suddenly feels like a proper measuring stick. It’s the first time Sunderland have hosted City in the league for eight years, and the timing is wonderfully awkward: the visitors arrive on a six-match league winning run, while the home side have made a habit of dragging games into the kind of scrappy, nerve-pinching territory where reputations don’t always help.
There’s a wider edge to it for City, too. Pep Guardiola’s side go into this gameweek 19 round with the possibility of moving above Arsenal at the top, depending on what happens when Arsenal face Aston Villa at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday. So yes, there’s pressure — the kind that turns a well-oiled passing machine into something a touch more frantic if the first goal doesn’t come.
For Sunderland, the recent results show a team that doesn’t frighten easily. They’ve beaten Bournemouth 3-2, shut out Newcastle 1-0, and taken points away at Liverpool (1-1) and Brighton (0-0). City, meanwhile, have been stacking wins and clean sheets, including a 3-0 victory over Sunderland on 6 December 2025. That was at City’s place. This is Sunderland’s house — and they’ve been keeping it tidy.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Sunderland’s possible XI is listed as: Roefs; Hume, Mukiele, Alderete, Cirkin; Xhaka, Geertruida; Rigg, Le Fée, Adingra; Brobbey. On paper, that reads like a 4-2-3-1 with Granit Xhaka as the organiser in the double pivot and Enzo Le Fée as the connective tissue ahead of him. With Chris Rigg and Simon Adingra either side of the central creator line, there’s a clear intention to keep width available, and Brian Brobbey provides a reference point up top.
That shape also fits Sunderland’s most-used Premier League formation listed: 4-2-3-1, used seven times, with eight scored and five conceded across those games. The broader profile is telling as well: Sunderland’s listed strengths include coming back from losing positions, aerial duels, defending set pieces, and protecting the lead. The weak spot is equally clear — defending against attacks down the wings. If you’re drawing up the danger map for this one, you don’t need many colours.
City’s possible XI is: Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O’Reilly; Silva, Gonzalez, Reijnders; Cherki, Foden; Haaland. That looks like a back four with a midfield line designed to keep the ball and pin Sunderland back, and an attacking trio where Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki can drift, combine and slip passes into Erling Haaland. City’s listed style points — short passes, controlling the game in the opposition half, attempting through balls often, possession football, playing the offside trap — all align with that.
Their formations summary highlights 4-1-4-1 as a used setup (seven times) with 12 scored and five conceded. Even without getting too hung up on labels, the intent is obvious: City want the match played 30 yards from Sunderland’s goal, with sustained pressure and constant angles.
How the Match Could Be Played
The central tension is simple: Sunderland’s willingness to defend in their own half and go longer versus City’s desire to squeeze the pitch, recycle attacks, and create chances through combinations and through balls.
Sunderland’s listed style includes long balls, playing with width, and attacks down both flanks. That suggests a plan built around escaping pressure rather than trying to out-pass it. If Roefs goes direct early, Brobbey becomes pivotal — not just as a finisher, but as the first outlet to turn a clearance into a second phase. Around him, Le Fée’s positioning matters: if he can pick up those loose balls and shift it quickly into the channels, Sunderland can at least force City to defend while facing their own goal, even if only for brief spells.
But the danger is that City’s control suffocates those moments. City’s possession profile in the league is 58.4%, with 88.2% pass accuracy, which points to long spells of Sunderland chasing shadows. When that happens, Sunderland’s double pivot has to decide what problem to solve first: protect the zone in front of the centre-backs, or shuffle wide to help their full-backs. The facts flag Sunderland as weak defending attacks down the wings, while City are listed as very strong attacking down the wings and very strong on counter attacks. That combination can become grim quickly if Sunderland’s wide defenders are left in repeated 1v1s and the cover arrives a half-second late.
City’s attacking patterns, as described, offer multiple routes. The through-ball emphasis is a direct threat to any line that steps up too eagerly, especially with Haaland’s volume and presence. At the same time, City’s ability to create chances via individual skill suggests they’re comfortable winning duels in wide or half-space pockets — the kind of situation where a winger or drifting attacker turns one defender, then suddenly the whole back line is sprinting.
The flip side is that City have listed weaknesses: stopping opponents from creating chances and protecting the lead. That’s where Sunderland’s strengths — coming back from losing positions and protecting the lead — become more than a nice badge on a profile page. If Sunderland can keep the game level into the second half, or if they can nick a lead and then lean into their set-piece defending and aerial work, the match can tighten into something uncomfortable for a team that prefers control to chaos.
Set pieces feel like an important subplot for both. Sunderland are listed as strong at defending set pieces and aerial duels, while City are also listed as strong at defending set pieces. That doesn’t mean corners and free-kicks won’t matter — it means the margins might. One loose second ball, one blocked clearance, one deflection into a shooting lane: that’s how you disturb a well-drilled favourite without needing to dominate the ball.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the broad team profiles. Sunderland’s Premier League line shows 20 goals in 18 matches, with 9.5 shots per game, 42.5% possession, and 79.0% pass accuracy. That paints a side comfortable without long spells of the ball, and one that doesn’t rely on shot volume to be competitive. City, by contrast, have 43 goals in 18 matches and 14.2 shots per game, alongside that 58.4% possession. In simple terms: City generate more shots and score more, while Sunderland tend to play a lower-possession game and pick moments.
Individually, City’s threat is obvious in black and white. Haaland has 19 league goals, averages 3.8 shots per game, and has eight man-of-the-match awards. That matters tactically because it changes what Sunderland’s centre-backs can do: step out and risk the run in behind, or drop off and invite pressure at the edge of the box. Foden adds another layer with seven goals and 2.4 shots per game, and Cherki’s creative output — seven assists — supports the idea of City finding pockets and slipping runners through.
For Sunderland, Xhaka’s numbers tell a story of control and responsibility: one goal and five assists from midfield, plus a 7.18 rating over 18 appearances. If Sunderland have any chance of building cleanly under pressure, it likely runs through his ability to take the ball, choose the tempo, and find the first pass that turns defence into a route forward. Le Fée’s contributions (two goals, three assists) underline that Sunderland’s best moments might come when he can receive between lines rather than pinned deep.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first ten minutes could set the emotional tone. If City settle into their passing rhythm early, Sunderland may find themselves defending wave after wave, and the wide areas become a stress test — exactly where Sunderland are flagged as vulnerable and City are flagged as very strong. If Sunderland can disrupt that rhythm with a couple of good recoveries and a few direct balls that stick, the crowd gets involved and the game becomes a contest rather than a pattern.
Watch for how Sunderland’s wide players behave without the ball. If Rigg and Adingra drop deep to help, Sunderland can keep their full-backs from being isolated — but they may also strand Brobbey and reduce the threat of transitions. If they stay higher, Sunderland preserve an out-ball, but risk exposing the very zones City like to overload.
Another swing point is what happens immediately after turnovers. City are labelled very strong on counter attacks, which isn’t just about sprinting forward — it’s about the speed of the first pass and the willingness of runners to go beyond Haaland. Sunderland’s ability to protect a lead is noted as a strength, but protecting a level scoreline against a team that can counter hard is another challenge entirely.
And then there’s the finishing question. City are listed as very strong at finishing scoring chances, which means Sunderland’s defensive work has to be about preventing clear chances rather than “allowing a few and hoping”. Against a striker on 19 goals, “hoping” is not a plan.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A single early goal can flip the entire tactical logic: Sunderland may have to take more risks, which can open the wide spaces they’d rather protect. Equally, if City dominate but don’t extend a lead, the match can become tense in a way that invites a mistake, a second ball, or one decisive moment from a set piece.
Best Bet for Sunderland vs Manchester City
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Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals
Manchester City travel to the Stadium of Light on the back of a relentless six-match winning streak in the Premier League. During this run, they have displayed a clinical edge that has seen them net 19 goals in just six games, averaging over three goals per outing. This offensive potency is spearheaded by Erling Haaland, who has already amassed 19 league goals this season and averages nearly four shots per game. City’s tactical setup under Pep Guardiola focuses heavily on sustained pressure, often playing with a high line and utilizing short, intricate passing to pin opponents deep into their own half. This is reflected in their season average of 58.4% possession and 14.2 shots per game.
While Sunderland have been formidable at home—remaining unbeaten at the Stadium of Light this season—they face a significant tactical disadvantage. They are noted for a weakness in defending against attacks down the wings, a specific area where Manchester City are rated as very strong. With creative forces like Rayan Cherki, who has seven assists and is currently in a “purple patch” of form, City are well-equipped to exploit the spaces out wide. Furthermore, City have already demonstrated their ability to dismantle this Sunderland side, having secured a comfortable 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture as recently as December 6.
Sunderland’s tendency to play in their own half and rely on long balls means they will likely concede high volumes of possession and territory. Although they possess the aerial strength to defend set pieces, the sheer volume of chances created by City’s through-balls and individual skill typically proves overwhelming. Given that City have scored at least twice in each of their last nine matches against Sunderland and that over 2.5 goals have been seen in those same nine encounters, the combination of a City victory and a high-scoring game is logically the most supported outcome.
What could go wrong
Sunderland’s unbeaten home record is built on a resilient defense that recently shut out Newcastle and held Arsenal to a draw. If they can successfully drag the match into a “scrappy” territory and capitalize on their strength in coming back from losing positions, they might frustrate City long enough to snatch a point. Additionally, if City’s dominance fails to result in an early goal, the pressure of the title race could lead to uncharacteristic errors.
Correct score lean
Sunderland 1-3 Manchester City
Sunderland have a proven ability to find the net at home, having recently beaten Bournemouth 3-2 and scored in their 1-1 draw with Leeds. With Brian Brobbey providing a physical reference point and Granit Xhaka’s ability to orchestrate transitions, a home goal is a reasonable expectation against a City side that has listed weaknesses in protecting leads. However, City’s superior finishing and the red-hot form of Haaland and Cherki suggest they will simply outscore their hosts. A 3-1 scoreline reflects City’s average of 2.39 goals per game while respecting Sunderland’s competitive nature at the Stadium of Light.
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