bet365
BetMGM
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Liverpool’s Anfield control outlast Leeds’ central punch and set-piece threat? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
▾
Bournemouth have seen BTTS land in seven straight games and concede 2.9 goals per away match. Brighton are prolific at home, scoring in 80% of recent games.
▾
Brighton average 1.8 goals at home and have won four straight home H2Hs against the Cherries, who consistently score but fail to defend away.
[bt4y_readers_tip]
Liverpool vs Leeds United Predictions and Best Bets
Liverpool vs Leeds United — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Market snapshot based on current campaign stats and recent goal-scoring trends at Anfield.
- Possession contrast sets the tone: Liverpool average 61.2% possession with 86.0% pass success in the league, while Leeds sit at 46.8% possession and 81.3% passing, shaping very different game plans.
- Shot volume meets shot intent: Liverpool take 15.1 shots per Premier League match and have 30 goals in 18 games, while Leeds take 13.3 shots per match and have 25 goals in 18.
- Recent games have stayed “alive” at both ends: Leeds have seen both teams score in their last eight league matches, while four of Liverpool’s last five league games have also featured goals for both sides.
Attacking Volume: Total League Goals
A comparison of clinical output over the opening 18 matches of the campaign.
With 15.1 shots per game, the hosts maintain high pressure in the opposition half.
The visitors have remained dangerous on the break despite lower possession (46.8%).
Scoring Reliability: Leading Striker Totals
Both teams arrive with their primary focal points in peak scoring form.
Ekitike has stepped up in Salah’s absence to provide a consistent focal point for the attack.
Arrives at Anfield having scored in each of his last six Premier League outings.
Only a few weeks on from that six-goal Elland Road spectacular – and the Mohamed Salah-related fallout that followed – Liverpool and Leeds United meet again, this time under the Anfield lights on New Year’s Day in the Premier League.
The recent league meeting finished 3-3, the sort of game that leaves both dugouts feeling they should have had more. Liverpool arrive with momentum of their own after a 2-1 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers extended a winning run to four matches. Leeds, meanwhile, have quietly pieced together a steadier spell: five unbeaten, most recently a 1-1 draw away at Sunderland.
It sets up an intriguing clash of styles and game-plans. Liverpool’s profile points to a side that wants territory, the ball, and sustained pressure in the opposition half. Leeds’ reads more like a team comfortable operating lower, taking plenty of shots when they can, and making moments count – especially from dead balls.
And with personnel absences shaping the attacking picture, this could come down to who best turns their patterns into the few big chances that actually matter.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Liverpool’s suggested XI points to a familiar 4-2-3-1: Alisson; Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Jones; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Wirtz; Ekitike. There’s a clear headline in the forward line: Salah is unavailable, with Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations. In his absence, the creative weight shifts even more towards Florian Wirtz and Alexis Mac Allister between the lines, and towards Dominik Szoboszlai as a high-energy connector from the right of the three.
At the top of the pitch, Hugo Ekitike leads the line after establishing himself as Liverpool’s league top scorer with eight goals. That matters for how Liverpool attack: it gives them a focal point for crosses, cut-backs and quick combinations, rather than relying on a wide forward to do the finishing.
Leeds’ possible XI is listed as Perri; Bogle, Struijk, Bijol, Gudmundsson; Stach, Ampadu, Tanaka; Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin, Okafor. Elsewhere, Leeds are described as a side that has “traditionally” played 3-5-2 this season and may continue that system, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin paired by Noah Okafor. Either way, the shape tells you what Leeds want: a central platform to compete, protect their own box, and spring forward with purpose.
Calvert-Lewin, in particular, arrives in eye-catching scoring form: he has scored in each of his last six games, and he also scored in the reverse fixture. If Leeds are going to hurt Liverpool again, it’s easy to see where the point of the spear is.
How the Match Could Be Played
Liverpool’s strengths lean towards wide pressure and sustained occupation of the opposition half: attacking down the wings, creating long-shot opportunities, and producing chances through individual skill. Put those together and you get a match picture where Liverpool aim to lock Leeds in, recycle possession quickly, and attack the same defensive line repeatedly until it bends.
The selection of Frimpong at right-back and Kerkez at left-back hints at aggressive width from deep positions. If Liverpool are building with short passes and a possession-heavy approach, the full-backs can pin Leeds’ wide defenders, while Wirtz and Mac Allister look to find pockets in front of the back line. That’s the fun bit for Liverpool: once those pockets appear, the game becomes about timing — one sharp touch inside, one disguised pass, and suddenly Ekitike is running at the near post or arriving for a cut-back.
Leeds, though, come with their own clear identity points. They’re described as a team that takes a lot of shots and attacks through the middle, but also one that often plays in their own half. That combination suggests a side that will accept phases without the ball, then look to break straight through central lanes when they regain it. Brenden Aaronson and Ao Tanaka (if he plays) become important in that story: one can carry and connect, the other can help secure second balls and keep attacks alive.
Where Leeds can really make this awkward is through the specific weaknesses highlighted in Liverpool’s profile: defending set pieces, defending against long shots, and protecting the lead. Leeds’ strengths include attacking set pieces and shooting from direct free kicks. That’s not a minor detail; it’s a potential match theme. If Leeds can turn Liverpool’s territorial dominance into a series of stoppages, corners and free-kicks, they can keep the scoreboard ticking even when open play is tough.
There’s also an obvious clash point in wide areas. Leeds’ weaknesses include defending against attacks down the wings and defending against through balls. Liverpool are set up to do both: wing play to stretch you, and through-ball runners arriving off the shoulder when you finally step out. If Leeds sit too deep, Liverpool will camp around the box and take the kind of long shots they’re noted for creating. If Leeds step up to compress those shots, the gaps behind can appear for Wirtz and Mac Allister to exploit with one pass.
The other side of that coin: Leeds are described as strong at stealing the ball from the opposition and at coming back from losing positions. If Liverpool try to “control the game in the opposition’s half” and Leeds time their steals well, the counter-attack moments can be sharp. Calvert-Lewin’s presence then becomes doubly valuable — not just for finishing, but for giving Leeds a target to hit early and a way to bring runners into play.
Free Bet Offers
Swipe to see more →
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
The Numbers That Support the Story
Liverpool’s Premier League profile after 18 matches shows a side that wants to dominate the ball: 61.2% possession and 86.0% pass success, alongside 15.1 shots per game. That measures control and volume — and it matters because, against a team likely to spend spells in their own half, volume is often how you force the game to break.
Leeds’ league numbers tell a different tale: 46.8% possession, 81.3% pass success, and 13.3 shots per game. That isn’t a passive team, even if they don’t monopolise the ball; it suggests Leeds can still generate attempts, especially when they can funnel attacks into the middle as their style indicates.
Goals underline the same contrast. Liverpool have 30 league goals in 18 games, Leeds have 25 in 18. Liverpool’s edge is real, but Leeds aren’t arriving toothless — and with Calvert-Lewin already on eight league goals, they have a reliable outlet to turn spells of pressure into tangible threat.
Recent match patterns also lean towards a game with moments at both ends. Four of Liverpool’s last five league matches have produced goals for both teams, while Leeds have seen both teams score in their last eight league games — including their last four away league matches. That matters not as a prediction, but as a pointer to match rhythm: both sides have been living in games where one good spell doesn’t settle it, and the response phase becomes part of the story.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first key moment is the early battle for zones: can Liverpool keep the game parked in Leeds territory, or do Leeds find repeated routes into central areas? Liverpool’s desire to control the match in the opposition half can become suffocating, but it also invites the one thing Leeds are praised for: nicking the ball and turning it into a shot quickly.
The second is the set-piece and long-shot swing. Liverpool’s listed issues defending set pieces and long shots meet Leeds’ stated strengths in attacking dead balls and shooting from direct free kicks. Even if open play looks one-way for long stretches, a couple of corners or one shooting free-kick can flip the mood, the crowd noise, and the scoreline.
Third: the finishing focal points. Ekitike leads Liverpool’s line as their top league scorer with eight; Calvert-Lewin arrives with eight league goals and a six-game scoring streak. In a match where both sides have recent evidence of conceding and responding, the striker who turns half-chances into goals can define the day.
Finally, watch the wide match-ups. Leeds are flagged as weak against wing attacks and through balls, while Liverpool’s strengths sit naturally in those areas. If Liverpool can create 1v1s wide and then find the runner inside, Leeds may end up defending their own box for long spells — and that’s when the small details, like second balls and clearances, start to feel like major events.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. If Leeds’ shape choice surprises and they match Liverpool player-for-player in key zones, the “control vs counter” script can dissolve into a messy midfield scrap. And if Liverpool dominate the ball without creating clear chances, frustration can feed the very transitions Leeds want. Fine margins, one poor clearance, one deflection from range — and the whole match can tilt.
Best Bet for Liverpool vs Leeds United
[bt4y_article_veil]
Both Teams to Score
Just weeks after a chaotic 3-3 draw at Elland Road, these two sides reconvene at Anfield with their scoring boots firmly laced. The evidence from their recent encounters and current individual forms suggests that defenses will likely be breached at both ends once again. Liverpool enter this fixture on a four-match winning streak, including a gritty 2-1 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers. While Mohamed Salah’s absence due to international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations is a significant headline, the emergence of Hugo Ekitike has filled the void effectively. Ekitike, now Liverpool’s top league scorer with eight goals, notably bagged a brace in the reverse fixture against Leeds. Supported by the creative ingenuity of Florian Wirtz and Alexis Mac Allister, the hosts have maintained a high offensive volume, averaging 15.1 shots per game and 30 goals across 18 matches.
Leeds United arrive with a quiet but significant momentum of their own, currently enjoying a five-match unbeaten run. Central to this resurgence is Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is in the midst of a historic purple patch. The striker has scored in six consecutive Premier League games—the first Leeds player to achieve such a feat since 1959—and has eight league goals to his name this season. Leeds have seen both teams score in each of their last eight league matches, a trend that includes their last four away trips. This pattern is reinforced by their tactical profile: they are comfortable operating in their own half and clinical on the break, often funneling attacks through the middle where Calvert-Lewin thrives.
Furthermore, Liverpool’s documented struggles in defending set pieces and long shots align perfectly with Leeds’ strengths in attacking dead balls and direct free kicks. In the previous 3-3 draw, Leeds demonstrated they could find ways past Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk even when trailing. With four of Liverpool’s last five league matches also seeing both sides find the net, the stage is set for a high-octane encounter where neither clean sheet feels particularly secure.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is a tactical stalemate where Leeds opt for an ultra-defensive shell that Liverpool fails to crack, or Liverpool’s territorial dominance (averaging over 61% possession) completely stifles Leeds’ ability to counter. If Hugo Ekitike or Dominic Calvert-Lewin see their specific scoring streaks snapped by rare disciplined defensive displays, the game could defy the recent high-scoring trends of both clubs.
Correct score lean
2 – 1
Rationale
Liverpool’s superior home advantage and recent winning momentum make them the favorites, but their tendency to concede remains a factor. They have won their last three league games, including two 2-1 scorelines against Wolves and Tottenham. Leeds have been remarkably consistent in finding the net, scoring in eight straight games, but they have also struggled to keep clean sheets against top-tier opposition. Given Liverpool’s high shot volume and the clinical form of Hugo Ekitike at Anfield, a narrow home victory where both teams contribute to the scoreline is the most logical outcome following their recent six-goal thriller.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New customers: Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports Bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on eSports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. T&Cs Apply. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
