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Can Brighton finally stack league wins — and shove Forest deeper into trouble at the Amex? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Brighton are unbeaten in 20 of their last 23 home matches and haven’t lost at the Amex to Forest in six meetings. Facing a Forest side that has only scored 25 goals in 27 games and sits 17th, Brighton’s superior possession and home comfort should secure three points.
Read Rationale ▾
Forest are weak at finishing chances and Brighton are strong at home but prone to low-margin games. With Forest struggling for goals and both teams showing a tendency for cagey contests, a narrow 1-0 home victory reflects the likely tactical stalemate and finishing issues for the visitors.
Readers’ Tip
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The Amex has a proper edge on Sunday. Brighton are chasing something they’ve barely managed all season — back-to-back league wins — after a bold 2-0 away win over Brentford sparked life into their campaign.
Brighton vs Nottm Forest — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Brighton’s strong home unbeaten run makes them favorites here, as Forest arrive sitting 17th and struggling for goals on the road.
Forest’s blunt output of 25 goals in 27 games suggests a lower-scoring affair is more likely than a high-event shootout.
With Forest struggling to convert chances, a narrow 1-0 or 2-0 home victory represents the most realistic statistical outcome.
Forest’s weak finishing and Brighton’s home defensive record suggest a clean sheet for the hosts is a high-probability event.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest: Premier League Preview
Brighton chase back-to-back league wins at the Amex as Forest arrive 17th, short on goals and needing points fast.
- Home comfort, Forest discomfort: Brighton are unbeaten in 20 of their last 23 home matches in all competitions, and they’re also unbeaten in six straight home games vs Forest.
- Welbeck is the finisher in this squad: Danny Welbeck has nine Premier League goals, while Brighton have 36 league goals overall — he’s the obvious reference point in the box.
- Forest’s table pressure is real: Nottingham Forest are 17th with 27 points and have scored 25 league goals in 27 games, a blunt output when margins are tight.
Attacking Output: Season Goals Scored
Brighton’s possession-heavy style has yielded a higher goal count compared to Forest’s more conservative output.
With a 52.8% possession average, the Seagulls have found the net significantly more often than Sunday’s visitors.
Forest sit 17th largely due to a blunt attack that has struggled to convert chances into a higher goals-per-game ratio.
Defensive Discipline: Disciplinary Record
Both sides have shown high aggression, which could impact the rhythm and set-piece opportunities.
A high card count highlights vulnerability in stopping transitions and a tendency to commit fouls in dangerous areas.
Forest remain slightly more disciplined but their defensive pressure often leads to frequent bookings in tight matches.
Match Preview
Fabian Hürzeler now has a chance to turn one good afternoon into a run. Nottingham Forest arrive with a very different mood. Vítor Pereira brings his side in sitting 17th, staring at the wrong end of the table and needing points to keep daylight between themselves and the bottom three. Brighton are 14th with 34 points, nine clear of the relegation spots, but the caution is obvious: both sides have shown they can be dragged into awkward, low-margin games. Kick-off is at 14:00.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Brighton: Injuries & Absences
- A. Webster (cruciate ligament injury, out until 01/06/2026)
- S. Tzimas (cruciate ligament tear, out until 01/09/2026)
- J. Steele (unknown injury)
Brighton probable XI: Verbruggen; Wieffer, Van Hecke, Dunk, Kadioglu; Hinshelwood, Baleba, Groß; Gomez, Welbeck, Mitoma
Implication: Brighton’s spine looks steady — Dunk and Van Hecke as the base, Groß to set rhythm, Mitoma for the spark. With Webster unavailable and defensive errors already a concern, concentration levels at the back have to match the ambition up front.
Nottingham Forest: Injuries & Absences
No specific injuries or suspensions are listed.
Forest probable XI: Ortega; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Sangare, Anderson; Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Jesus
Implication: Forest’s build points to width and runners around Morgan Gibbs-White, with Callum Hudson-Odoi and Omari Hutchinson trying to stretch the pitch. The big question is end product: Forest are weak finishing scoring chances, so the final pass and final touch must be ruthless.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Premier League) | Brighton | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| League position (points) | 14th (34) | 17th (27) |
| Goals scored (apps) | 36 (27) | 25 (27) |
| Possession | 52.8% | 48.5% |
| Pass accuracy | 84.0% | 82.6% |
| Shots per game | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| Aerials won | 14.7 | 15.2 |
| Clean sheets (all comps) | 8 | 11 |
| Yellow cards (all comps) | 75 | 60 |
Tactical Battle
Brighton’s Rhythm
Hürzeler’s Brighton want to own the middle of the pitch. They play possession football, move it with short passes, and attack through the middle — then they let fly. Brighton are very strong at creating long shot opportunities, and they’re also strong in individual-skill chance creation. That fits the likely front three: Mitoma stretching, Diego Gómez arriving with energy, and Welbeck offering a finishing point.
But there’s a catch. Brighton are weak at stopping opponents from creating chances, weak at avoiding individual errors, and they can give away fouls in dangerous areas. If the tempo drops or they get sloppy in the build, Forest have the tools to pounce.
Forest’s Plan
Pereira’s Forest like to play with width, attempt crosses often, and control the game in the opposition half. They also take plenty of shots and even lean into long shots themselves. That can push Brighton’s full-backs back and force the home side into longer clearances — exactly where Forest can hunt second balls and build pressure.
Still, Forest’s own warning lights are glaring. They’re weak defending counter attacks, weak defending set pieces, and weak defending against long shots. Against a Brighton team that loves a strike from range and can attack set plays, that’s a risky mix if Forest lose their spacing.
Key Zones & Moments to Watch
- Long-shot shootout: Both sides like long efforts, and Forest are weak defending against long shots — the edge could be one strike from distance.
- Set-piece stress: Brighton are strong defending set pieces, but Forest are weak defending set pieces — one delivery can change the whole pattern.
- Aerial and box battles: Forest can be weak in aerial duels, yet Brighton are also weak in aerial duels. That’s a messy, unpredictable battleground inside both boxes.
- The first mistake: Brighton’s issue with individual errors meets Forest’s own “avoid errors” weakness. A single poor touch or rushed pass could be the match’s loudest moment.
What Could Go Wrong?
Brighton could dominate the ball and still get stung if they overplay in risky areas — their own error-prone streak invites danger. Forest, meanwhile, can build attacks and still leave empty-handed if the finishing falls flat again. If this becomes a game of half-chances and nervous defending, it can swing wildly on one set piece, one long shot, or one lapse in concentration.
Match Result Market
This involves predicting the final outcome of the match after 90 minutes. You can choose a home win, an away win, or a draw. It is the most straightforward way to back a team’s overall superiority.
Correct Score Market
A high-risk, high-reward market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. It requires precise alignment of offensive efficiency and defensive stability from both competing sides.
📊 Tactical Analysis & Betting Rationale
Brighton enter this fixture as significant favourites, primarily due to their formidable home record at the Amex. They are currently unbeaten in 20 of their last 23 home matches across all competitions. This stability at home is contrasted by Nottingham Forest’s poor attacking returns; the visitors have managed only 25 league goals in 27 games. While Brighton enjoy 52.8% possession, Forest operate at 48.5%, suggesting a game where the home side will dictate the tempo. The tactical setup for Brighton focuses on short passes and quick combinations through the middle, which should exploit a Forest defence that is notably weak against counter-attacks and set-pieces.
🎯 Tactical Indicators for Brighton Win
- Brighton are unbeaten in their last six home games against Nottingham Forest.
- Nottingham Forest sit 17th in the table with a blunt attack (0.92 goals per game).
- Brighton’s possession dominance (52.8%) allows them to control the game state at the Amex.
Risk Factor: Brighton’s tendency for individual defensive errors and high yellow card count (75) could invite unnecessary pressure.
The prediction for a 1-0 scoreline is rooted in the finishing struggles of both teams and the likely cagey nature of the match. Forest are explicitly noted as being weak at finishing scoring chances, while Brighton, despite their dominance, can drift into low-margin encounters. With Forest likely to play with width and attempt frequent crosses, they may frustrate Brighton’s build-up, but their own inability to find the net regularly makes a single-goal margin the most plausible outcome. Brighton’s defensive record of 8 clean sheets this season further supports the idea that they can shut out a struggling Forest attack while finding one decisive moment through Danny Welbeck or Kaoru Mitoma.
Scoreline Probability: Forest’s lack of goals (25 in 27) points to a low-scoring BHA clean sheet.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Brighton are strong at defending set-pieces, neutralising one of the few ways struggling teams often find breakthroughs.
Forest are explicitly weak at defending set-plays, a major vulnerability against Brighton’s aerial threats.
⊕ Interactive Q&A: Match Insights
⊕What is the Match Result market?
The Match Result market is a bet on whether the home team wins, the away team wins, or the game ends in a draw. It is the most common football betting market based on the final score after 90 minutes.
⊕Why is Brighton favoured to win this match?
Brighton are favoured because they are unbeaten in 20 of their last 23 home games. Their strong record at the Amex and Forest’s position in 17th make them the statistical choice for a home victory.
⊕How does the Correct Score market work?
Correct Score betting requires you to predict the exact final scoreline of the match. For this game, a 1-0 win for Brighton is suggested due to Forest’s low goal output of 25 goals in 27 matches.
⊕What are Forest’s main weaknesses in this fixture?
Forest are weak at finishing scoring chances and defending set-pieces. These factors are critical when playing away against a Brighton team that controls possession and defends set-plays well.
⊕Who is Brighton’s most dangerous attacking threat?
Danny Welbeck is the primary reference point with nine Premier League goals this season. His presence in the box is vital for a team that has scored 36 league goals overall.
⊕What is the “Double Chance” betting market?
Double Chance allows you to cover two of the three possible outcomes in a single bet, such as Brighton win or Draw. This reduces risk compared to a standard Match Result bet but offers lower odds.
⊕Can Forest’s shot volume lead to an upset?
Forest average 13 shots per game, which is similar to Brighton’s 12.8. However, their weak finishing means they often fail to turn these opportunities into actual goals.
⊕What defensive issues does Brighton have?
Brighton are noted for individual errors and a high yellow card count. If they lose concentration in the middle of the pitch, Forest’s preference for counter-attacks could cause problems.
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Last Odds Update: Feb 28, 10:37 GMT | Editorial Policy
