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Can Estrela Amadora drag Estoril into their fight at Estádio José Gomes? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Both teams have seen significant goal action recently, including Estrela's 3-3 draw with Braga. Estoril's attack is statistically superior, but their defense is prone to errors on the break.
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Both teams are evenly matched in the standings and possess "weak" defensive ratings in areas the other team excels at (long shots and set pieces).
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Estrela Amadora vs Estoril Praia Predictions and Best Bets
Estrela vs Estoril — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Prices suggest a very balanced encounter with Estoril holding a minor edge due to recent scoring form and historical H2H dominance.
With both teams showcasing defensive vulnerabilities and a combined 51 goals this season, markets lean towards both sides finding the net.
Low-margin outcomes dominate the landscape, with a 1-1 draw or single-goal victories for either side carrying the highest probability.
- Goals on the line: Estoril Praia have hit 28 league goals in 17 matches, outgunning Estrela’s 23 — a small edge that could swing a tight fixture.
- The finisher factor: Yanis Begraoui has 8 league goals for Estoril, more than Estrela’s top scorer Kikas (6), turning half-chances into real pressure.
- History with a sting: Estoril have won 3 of the last 4 Liga Portugal meetings with Estrela — including a 4-0 and a 4-2 — so Estrela have clear revenge fuel.
Attacking Threat: Total League Goals
Estoril Praia have demonstrated a slightly higher clinical edge in front of goal compared to Estrela across the first 17 matches.
A direct approach often involving crosses to Kikas has kept them competitive, though they trail the visitors in total volume.
Led by Yanis Begraoui, Estoril have outgunned the hosts, converting a higher percentage of their average 12.4 shots per game.
Offensive Pressure: Average Shots Per Game
The frequency of attempts highlights a marginal difference in how often each side tests the opposition goalkeeper.
Estrela average fewer shots than Estoril, reflecting their style of staying compact and picking moments to go direct.
Estoril’s slightly higher shot volume aligns with their higher possession rate (50.1%) and midfield control.
Monday night closes Matchday 18 with a proper needle of a fixture: Estrela Amadora vs Estoril Praia at Estádio José Gomes, with just one point separating them. Estrela sit 12th on 19 points, while Estoril are three places higher, and that gap is exactly what this match is about — control the middle pack, or get dragged into it.
Estrela’s mood is sharper than it’s been for a while. They’ve gone four games unbeaten (including a 1-1 friendly draw with Wolfsburg), and there’s a sense they’re learning how to stay in games even when the football isn’t pretty. Estoril arrive with more goals in the locker, but with flaws that can’t be hidden when the tempo spikes. At 20:15, it’s set up for a physical, streaky night — the kind where momentum swings hard and nobody gets a quiet five minutes.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / Absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Estrela Amadora (possible XI)
Ribeiro; Ecanda, Patrick, Schappo, Otavio; Sola, P Moreira, Robinho; J Cabral, Kikas, Marcus
Estoril Praia (possible XI)
Robles; Bacher, Boma, Amaral; R Sanchez, Holsgrove, Orellana, J Carvalho; Guitane, Marques, Begraoui
What it implies
- Estrela’s front three has clear punch: Jovane Cabral and Abraham Marcus supply the spark, while Kikas gives them a direct target and a ruthless edge in the box.
- Estoril’s spine looks built for control and creation: João Carvalho (4 goals, 5 assists) plus Jordan Holsgrove (3 assists, team-high rating 7.01) screams “tempo-setters” — but that also means turnovers in midfield could be fatal.
Managers: João Nuno (Estrela Amadora) vs Ian Cathro (Estoril Praia)
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Liga Portugal) | Estrela Amadora | Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| League position / points | 12th / 19 | 3 places higher / +1 point |
| Matches played | 17 | 17 |
| Goals scored | 23 | 28 |
| Shots per game | 11.6 | 12.4 |
| Possession | 48.2% | 50.1% |
| Pass accuracy | 79.9% | 80.1% |
| Aerials won | 14.0 | 13.8 |
| Team rating | 6.52 | 6.54 |
What the numbers are screaming
- This doesn’t look like a mismatch — it looks like a knife-edge. Estoril shade the ball and the shot volume, but only slightly.
- Estrela win a touch more in the air and don’t try to be a possession monster. That leans into a game plan: stay compact, then go sharp and direct.
- The real separation is finishing: 28 vs 23 goals over the same number of matches. That’s the difference between “nearly” and “enough.”
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Estrela: compact first, then punch hard
Estrela’s profile is built for messy momentum shifts. They’re strong on counter attacks, strong attacking down the wings, and they don’t mind going long balls and long shots when the game feels clogged. That matters against an opponent who can be lured into mistakes.
But there’s a tension in their identity. Estrela are also weak defending set pieces, weak against long shots, and vulnerable to through ball attacks. That’s basically an invitation: if Estoril can keep their composure and slip runners in behind, Estrela’s back line will have moments where it looks stretched and unsure.
The key for Estrela is the timing of their breaks. With Jovane Cabral (3 goals) and Abraham Marcus (3 goals, 2 assists) around Kikas (6 goals), they’ve got enough variety to hurt teams who lose their shape. The risk is obvious: if they sit too deep for too long, they’ll spend the whole night defending deliveries and second balls.
Estoril: more ball, more bite — but also more danger
Estoril bring the slightly “cleaner” blueprint: more goals, a shade more possession, and a midfield with João Carvalho and Holsgrove capable of turning a slow move into a sudden chance. They’re strong attacking down the wings, strong at set pieces, and they like to attempt through balls — exactly the sort of pass that tests Estrela’s weak point.
The flip side? Estoril have listed weaknesses that read like a warning label in a tight away match:
- Defending counter attacks (weak)
- Protecting the lead (weak)
- Avoiding individual errors (weak)
- Defending against long shots (very weak)
That combination can turn a “controlled” performance into chaos with one loose pass. If Estrela can win the ball and attack quickly into the channels, Estoril’s back line may end up defending facing their own goal — the scenario they really don’t want.
The duel that shapes everything: Carvalho & Holsgrove vs Moreira & the disruptors
If Estoril’s Carvalho is allowed to receive, turn, and pick runners, Estrela will get pulled apart in waves. Estrela need Paulo Moreira (2 goals) and the midfield around him to make it uncomfortable — not necessarily by chasing, but by closing lanes and forcing play wide early.
On the other side, Estoril’s biggest job is emotional control. They can’t panic when Estrela go direct. They can’t get dragged into a scrap where second balls decide everything. And they definitely can’t switch off when Estrela pull the trigger from range — because Estoril’s “very weak” mark against long shots is exactly the kind of crack that gets prised open on a Monday night under pressure.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces vs set-piece defending: Estoril are strong attacking set pieces; Estrela are weak defending them. That’s a collision waiting to happen.
- Through balls in transition: Estoril attempt through balls often, while Estrela are weak defending through-ball attacks. One clean split pass could flip the match.
- Long-shot trigger: Estrela lean into long shots, and Estoril are very weak against them. Watch for early attempts to test that nerve.
- The finishing duel: Begraoui (8) vs Kikas (6) — if chances are scarce, the sharper striker becomes the storyline.
What could go wrong?
Both sides carry “self-inflicted” danger. Estrela’s individual errors and set-piece issues can gift a match away in a blink. Estoril’s struggles protecting a lead and their error-prone moments can undo an otherwise solid performance. If the first goal arrives against the run of play, this could become frantic — and once it turns frantic, it stops being about structure and becomes about who keeps their head.
Best Bet for Estrela Amadora vs Estoril Praia
Could a Monday night shootout decide who breaks away from the Primeira Liga pack?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring Form | Both scored in 4 of last 5; 13 goals combined in 3 games | Back BTTS |
| H2H History | 3 of last 5 meetings saw 3+ goals; total 18 goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Key Marksmen | Begraoui (8 goals) vs Kikas (6 goals) | Anytime Scorer |
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Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
This fixture is a collision between two sides that have forgotten how to keep a clean sheet but are finding the net with increasing regularity. Estrela Amadora enter this clash on the back of a chaotic 3-3 draw with Braga, a result that perfectly encapsulates their current identity: lethal in transition but fundamentally fragile at the back. They have conceded 27 goals this season, and their inability to defend set pieces or long shots plays right into the hands of an Estoril side that specializes in exactly those areas.
Estoril Praia are even more prolific, outscoring the hosts with 28 league goals. Their attacking metrics are supported by the elite form of Yanis Begraoui, whose 8 goals make him a constant threat against an Estrela defense that often relies on individual interventions rather than structural discipline. However, Estoril are notoriously poor at protecting leads and defending counter-attacks. With Estrela boasting speed on the wings through Abraham Marcus and Jovane Cabral, the visitors are almost guaranteed to face high-quality chances whenever they lose possession in the middle third.
The historical data further reinforces the likelihood of a high-scoring affair. Three of the last four meetings between these clubs in Liga Portugal have produced at least four goals, including 4-2 and 4-0 results. Given that both teams are separated by just a single point and are fighting to stay out of a relegation scrap, neither side is likely to settle for a cautious draw. Expect a high-tempo game where defensive errors lead to frequent goalmouth action.
What could go wrong? The primary risk lies in a potential tactical stalemate if both managers prioritize “not losing” over attacking intent. While their seasonal data suggests defensive leaks, a high-pressure Monday night environment can sometimes lead to a cagey, low-scoring affair if Estrela decides to sit extremely deep and Estoril fails to find the final pass.
Correct Score Lean
Estrela Amadora 2-2 Estoril Praia
This scoreline reflects the statistical deadlock between two teams separated by just one point in the table. Estrela’s recent 3-3 draw with Braga and Estoril’s 3-3 result against Moreirense prove that both sides have the offensive firepower to exploit each other’s defensive “weak” zones—specifically Estrela’s set-piece vulnerability and Estoril’s struggle against long shots. With both teams averaging over 1.3 goals per game and showing a shared inability to maintain clean sheets, a high-scoring draw is the most logical outcome.
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