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Can Lazio finally string two league wins together, or will Como’s top-six swagger travel to the Olimpico again? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Lazio has failed to win back-to-back league games for nearly a year and struggles against top-six opposition, while Como dominates possession and already beat Lazio this season.
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Lazio is a draw specialist at the Olimpico, and both sides have identical defensive records, conceding only 16 goals each this season.
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Lazio vs Como Predictions and Best Bets
Lazio vs Como — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Prices suggest a very tight encounter at the Olimpico, with Como holding marginal favouritism over the hosts despite playing away from home.
Pricing indicates a high probability of a low-scoring stalemate or a narrow win, reflecting Lazio’s strong home draw habit.
The market leans towards a lower-scoring game, with Under 2.5 goals significantly shorter than the Over 2.5 price.
- Draw Habit at the Olimpico: Lazio have drawn 13 of their 29 home league games since last season began, and they’ve drawn three of the last four at Stadio Olimpico.
- Big-Game Problem: Lazio have taken just two points and scored only one goal from six meetings with current top-six teams — and Como arrive as one of them.
- Como’s Control & Output: Como have scored 28 goals in 20 Serie A matches, average 14 shots per game, and hold 61.1% possession with 86.5% pass accuracy.
Tactical Control: Average Possession
Como’s tactical approach under Fàbregas focuses heavily on ball retention, contrasting with Lazio’s more transitional style.
Lazio maintain a balanced share of the ball but are happy to cede control to create counter-attacking spaces.
Como lead the league in several control metrics, dictating the tempo through short passing and through-ball attempts.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Game
Total shot volume highlights which side is consistently putting the opposition goalkeeper under pressure.
Lazio create fewer total openings but rely on the quality of Zaccagni and Isaksen to produce high-value chances.
Como’s high possession translates into significant attacking activity, averaging 14 shots per game across the campaign.
This is what Monday nights are for: a direct, no-excuses scrap between two teams staring at the same prize. At the Stadio Olimpico, Lazio welcome high-flying Como, who sit six points ahead of them in the standings and inside the top six. Both are chasing Europe. Neither can afford to blink.
Lazio’s mood is complicated. They nicked a point late in a frantic draw with Fiorentina, then followed it with their first league win of 2026 — a gritty 1-0 away at Verona, sealed when Manuel Lazzari’s deflected cross looped in deep in the second half. The problem is consistency: Lazio haven’t managed back-to-back league wins since February 2025.
Como arrive with real momentum in their season, and a recent head-to-head edge too — they beat Lazio 2-0 in August. Kick-off is at 19:45, and the tension should feel immediate.
Team News & Lineups
Team News
- Lazio absences
- S. Gigot (Ankle surgery) — out until 31.01.2026
- P. Gabarrón Gil (Muscular problems) — return date not specified
- T. Bašić (Adductor injury) — return date not specified
- B. Dia (Called up to national team) — unavailable
- Como absences
- None listed.
Probable Lineups
Lazio (possible XI): Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini; Vecino, Cataldi, Taylor; Isaksen, Noslin, Zaccagni
Como (possible XI): Butez; Smolcic, Ramon, Carlos, Valle; Perrone, Da Cunha; Vojvoda, Paz, Rodriguez; Douvikas
What it means
Lazio’s missing options squeeze the attacking rotation — without Boulaye Dia, the burden shifts to movement and timing from Tijjani Noslin and the wide threat of Gustav Isaksen and Mattia Zaccagni. The spine still looks sturdy, though, with Ivan Provedel (rating 7.07) and Mario Gila marshalling the back line.
Como’s XI screams control. Nico Paz is the headline act — 6 goals and 6 assists, plus 7 Man of the Match awards — with Tasos Douvikas (also 6 goals) as the finisher. If Como get their midfield settled early, Lazio will be doing a lot of running without the ball.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Lazio | Como |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 6th |
| Points | 28 | 34 |
| Goals scored (Serie A) | 21 | 28 |
| Goals conceded (Serie A) | 16 | 16 |
| Shots per game | 11.3 | 14.0 |
| Possession | 51.3% | 61.1% |
| Pass accuracy | 85.5% | 86.5% |
| Clean sheets (total / per game) | 11 / 0.52 | 10 / 0.45 |
The numbers paint a clean contrast. Lazio are efficient defensively — level on goals conceded — but they don’t dominate games the way Como do. Como bring volume (shots, possession, attacks) and they’re not leaky either, which is why they’ve opened a six-point gap.
For Lazio, the key is turning control moments into goals. For Como, it’s proving they can keep their rhythm in Rome.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Lazio: sharp triangles, through balls — and a finishing question
Maurizio Sarri’s Lazio want to play with short passes and through balls, probing until the pitch opens up. They’re strong at creating chances with those through balls and strong at defending set pieces, which fits a match where the margins will be tight.
But Lazio’s weaknesses are awkward against this opponent. They can be weak at finishing chances and weak at stopping opponents creating chances — and Como are built to create, especially through the middle. Lazio have also struggled in the toughest fixtures: only two points and one goal from six matches against top-six sides. That isn’t a small issue; it’s a pattern.
Expect Lazio to try to trap Como’s build-up with aggressive pressing spells, then break lines quickly into Isaksen and Zaccagni. If Noslin pins centre-backs and drags them around, the gaps can appear for late runners like Danilo Cataldi (2 goals, 2 assists) arriving on the edge.
Como: possession with punch, led by Paz
Cesc Fàbregas has Como playing possession football with short passes, constant through-ball attempts, and a clear preference to attack through the middle. They’ve got the volume to back it up: 14.09 shots per game, 62% possession in the match logs, and a huge amount of attacking activity (over 2300 total attacks).
Everything flows through Nico Paz. His output is elite for this level of influence: 6 goals, 6 assists, and a ridiculous 7 Man of the Match awards. Give him time between the lines and he’ll slip runners in behind or shoot from range — Como are very strong at long-shot creation and direct free kicks too.
The risk for Como is at the back end of their own dominance. They’re weak at stopping opponents creating chances. If Lazio break the first press and counter into wide spaces, Como can be forced into last-ditch defending.
The key mismatch
Como’s ability to control and create through the middle versus Lazio’s vulnerability to opponents creating chances — that’s the knife edge. Lazio can’t afford passive defending. Como can’t afford sloppy rest defence.
Key Moments to Watch
- The Paz problem: If Nico Paz is receiving freely in the pocket, Lazio will spend the night chasing shadows and conceding chances in waves.
- Set pieces and second balls: Both sides are strong defending set pieces, so the decisive moment might be the second phase — who reacts faster after the first clearance.
- Discipline and game-state: Lazio have 6 red cards in the league (0.29 per game). In a top-six chase, one reckless moment flips everything.
- Early tempo: Lazio average the first goal around 42′, Como around 33′. If Como strike early, the Olimpico can get impatient fast.
What could go wrong?
If Lazio start slowly and allow Como to settle into that 60% possession rhythm, the match can become a long defensive shift — and Lazio’s finishing weakness leaves them with little margin for error when chances finally arrive. If Como over-commit in possession and lose it in bad areas, Lazio’s through-ball game can suddenly look lethal, especially if Zaccagni and Isaksen are running at a back line that’s still stepping up.
Best Bet for Lazio vs Como
Can Lazio secure rare back-to-back wins, or will Como’s control silence the Olimpico?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Current Form | LAZ 9th (28pts); COMO 6th (34pts) | Back Como/Draw |
| Firepower | COMO 28 goals; LAZ 21 goals | Over 1.5 Goals |
| Control | COMO 61.1% possession; LAZ 51.3% | Como Possession |
| Big Games | LAZ 1 goal in 6 vs. Top 6 sides | Lazio Under 1.5 |
| Draw Rate | 13 draws in 29 LAZ home games | Back the Draw |
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Como or Draw (X2)
Lazio enters this fixture with a glaring psychological and statistical hurdle. Despite being at the Stadio Olimpico, the home side has consistently struggled to impose themselves against the league’s elite. They have taken a mere two points from six matches against teams currently residing in the top six. Furthermore, they have managed to find the back of the net only once across those six high-stakes encounters. This lack of “big-game” punch is a significant red flag against a Como side that arrives six points ahead of them in the table.
Como’s tactical identity is built on total control, which is likely to frustrate the home crowd. They average 61.1% possession and an elite 86.5% pass accuracy. With Nico Paz operating in the pockets—boasting six goals and six assists—Como has the creative engine to exploit a Lazio defense that is missing key personnel like Samuel Gigot. Lazio’s inability to string consecutive wins together since February 2025 suggests a team that struggles to maintain momentum, making the visitors the more reliable side to take something from this game.
The draw is also a massive runner here. Lazio has drawn 13 of their last 29 home league games, including three of their last four at the Olimpico. Given that Como beat Lazio 2-0 earlier this season, the visitors possess the tactical blueprint to nullify the hosts. Lazio is also missing Boulaye Dia, which places a heavy scoring burden on Tijjani Noslin. If Como settles into their rhythm and maintains their 14 shots-per-game average, they should at least secure a point in Rome.
What could go wrong? Lazio’s strength lies in defending set pieces and playing through balls. If Como’s high defensive line is caught out by a quick transition to Mattia Zaccagni or Gustav Isaksen, the hosts could snatch a narrow lead. Additionally, Lazio has a discipline issue with six red cards this season; a moment of madness could flip a controlled Como performance into a chaotic defeat.
Correct Score Lean
Lazio 1-1 Como
A 1-1 draw aligns perfectly with the historical trends and current tactical setups. Lazio has a high propensity for draws at home, while Como’s superior possession often translates into dominance without always resulting in a blowout victory. Como averages 1.4 goals per game, and Lazio’s defensive efficiency—conceding only 16 goals all season—suggests they won’t be easily dismantled. With Nico Paz likely to orchestrate a goal for the visitors and Lazio finding a way through a deflected effort or a set-piece transition, a shared point is the most logical outcome.
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