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Can Genk turn first-leg swagger into a controlled finish, or will Dinamo Zagreb force a proper second-leg firefight? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Genk vs Dinamo Zagreb — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Genk’s European surge and three straight wins give them the edge over a Dinamo side that has struggled defensively this season.
Dinamo’s average of 2.11 goals conceded combined with Genk’s attacking form suggests a high-scoring game is very likely tonight.
Genk’s tendency to score 2+ goals at home and Dinamo’s scoring form points towards a result like 2-1 for the hosts.
Dinamo’s streak of conceding in all nine Europa League games is a key factor in tonight’s tactical breakdown.
It’s knockout football under the lights at the Luminus Arena, and the tie has a clear shape: Genk lead 3-1 and Dinamo Zagreb have to swing big.
Attacking Output: Goals Scored in Europa League
Both sides have been prolific in Europe this season, with Genk holding a narrow lead in total goals scored over nine appearances.
Genk have averaged over 1.5 goals per game, aided by scoring twice or more in their last three straight European outings.
Despite their defensive struggles, Dinamo’s scoring rate remains high, bolstered by the form of Dion Beljo who has five in this competition.
Defensive Metrics: Conceding Trends
The story of the tie is often found in the defensive record, particularly Dinamo’s inability to keep a clean sheet in Europe.
Dinamo have conceded in every single Europa League game this season, a trend that Genk exploited in the first leg.
Genk create a high volume of chances, putting significant pressure on opposing backlines throughout the 90 minutes.
Match Preview
The hosts arrive with confidence still intact despite a bruising 3-0 loss to Standard Liège at the weekend — their first defeat in eight matches, landing at the end of a five-game winning streak.
Dinamo, though, come in with momentum of their own after thumping NK Varaždin 4-0. That’s the danger for Nicky Hayen’s side: a team already capable of scoring freely can smell a chaotic second leg and go hunting.
Kick-off is 20:00. Expect tempo, emotion, and a game that could flip fast if Genk get sloppy.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Genk absences
- Konstantinos Karetsas – concussion (forced off late vs Standard Liège)
- J. Ndenge Kongolo – minor knock
Dinamo Zagreb absences
No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Genk (possible XI):
Lawal; El Ouahdi, Sadick, Smets, Kayembe; Heymans, Heynen, Steuckers; Ito, Bibout, Medina
Dinamo Zagreb (possible XI):
Livakovic; Valincic, McKenna, Dominguez, Perez Vinlof; Stojkovic, Misic, Zajc; Topic, Bakrar, Hoxha
What it means on the pitch
- If Karetsas can’t influence the game, Genk lose a major creator — he has 9 assists in the league this season — and the final ball becomes less natural.
- Dinamo’s front line has goals in it: Dion Beljo has 5 in the Europa League, and that’s exactly the profile you want when you need early belief.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Europa League) | Genk | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| League stage points | 16 | 10 |
| Goals scored | 14 (9 apps) | 13 (9 apps) |
| Shots per game | 13.1 | 10.3 |
| Possession % | 48.2% | 49.8% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.5% | 84.1% |
| Aerial duels won | 11.8 | 13.1 |
| First-leg score | Won 3-1 | Lost 1-3 |
This looks like a classic second-leg tension: Genk create more volume in Europe, Dinamo keep the ball a touch more, and both carry real aerial presence. The warning light for Dinamo is obvious — they concede regularly in this competition — but Genk’s home form has been mixed, with only two home wins since November.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Genk’s job: manage the tie without killing their own threat
With a two-goal cushion, Genk don’t need to play hero football — but they can’t drift into survival mode either. Their strengths point toward a proactive approach: set-piece threat, long-range shooting, and an ability to respond when games turn against them. That makes them awkward to play against when they score first, because they can shift the rhythm without fully retreating.
The likely spark is Bryan Heynen. He scored in the first leg and carries a 7.13 league rating, and Genk’s midfield platform will decide whether this feels like control or panic. If Genk can keep Dinamo’s counters to single moments rather than waves, the tie stays on their terms. But there’s a clear soft spot: Genk can be vulnerable down the flanks and struggle to stop opponents creating chances. That’s exactly where a desperate away side will push.
Dinamo’s task: make it uncomfortable, make it early
Dinamo don’t have the luxury of patience. Their best route is to turn this into a sequence of attacks: get deliveries into the box, compete for second balls, and test Genk’s decision-making under stress. Scott McKenna gives them aerial bite, while Josip Mišić (2 Europa League assists) can knit play and keep pressure alive. Up front, Dion Beljo is the headline threat. Five Europa League goals tells you he doesn’t need many touches to change the scoreline. If Dinamo can pin Genk’s full-backs and force rushed clearances, the match shifts from tactics to nerves.
The swing zone
The opening half-hour feels huge. Genk can puncture the chase with one sharp move, but if Dinamo land an early goal, every tackle, every set-piece, every loose pass gets louder.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces vs set-piece defending: Genk are very strong attacking set plays — and in a second leg, one dead-ball goal can slam the door or blow it wide open.
- Wide pressure on Genk: Genk can be vulnerable defending wing attacks; Dinamo’s wide players and full-backs will aim to overload and force cutbacks.
- Game management without Karetsas: If Konstantinos Karetsas can’t feature, Genk may need others to provide the final pass and calm in possession when Dinamo surge.
What could go wrong?
Genk’s margin is healthy, but their home form has been patchy — only two home wins since November — and a frantic start could drag them into mistakes. Dinamo have been hit-and-miss in this competition, yet they’ve got scorers and enough structure to build pressure. If Genk concede first and the crowd tightens, the tie stops being about talent and becomes about composure.
Quick Hits
- First-leg punch landed hard: Genk take a 3-1 advantage into the return after goals from Bryan Heynen and a late Zakaria El Ouahdi double that tilted the tie.
- Genk’s European surge: Genk are on a run of three straight Europa League wins, and have scored 2+ goals in each of those matches to keep pressure high.
- Dinamo’s Europa League problem: Dinamo have conceded 1+ goal in all nine Europa League matches, with an average of 2.11 conceded per game — a scary mix when chasing a deficit.
Market Explainer: Understanding the Odds
Match Result & BTTS
This market requires you to predict two outcomes: the winner of the match and that both teams will score at least one goal. It is popular in second legs where a trailing team must attack, often leaving spaces behind.
Pros: Significantly higher odds than a standard win. Cons: A clean sheet for either side ruins the selection.
Correct Score
A high-variance market where you predict the exact final scoreline. Because it is difficult to get right, the prices are typically very high.
Pros: Massive potential returns. Cons: Very low probability of landing; a single late goal can spoil the result.
Genk vs Dinamo Zagreb Tactical Analysis
Genk enter this return fixture in a position of significant strength. Having secured a 3-1 victory in the first leg, they possess a cushion that allows them to play with composure. Their European form has been exemplary, winning three consecutive matches while scoring at least two goals in each. Bryan Heynen, a key figure in their midfield, proved his worth in the first leg and continues to be the driving force behind their proactive approach. Genk are particularly dangerous from set-pieces and long-range shooting, which could prove decisive if Dinamo Zagreb become desperate and leave gaps in the final third.
🎯 Tactical Indicators for Pick 1
- Dinamo Zagreb have conceded in 100% of their Europa League matches this season.
- Genk have scored 2 or more goals in each of their last three European wins.
- Dinamo Zagreb have a high scoring rate, with Dion Beljo netting 5 times in the competition.
Risk Factor: Genk may choose a purely defensive setup to protect their lead, which could reduce their own scoring opportunities.
Dinamo Zagreb are forced into a high-risk strategy. They must chase at least two goals to level the tie, which naturally suits their attacking profile but exposes their fragile defence. Dion Beljo is their primary weapon, and his ability to convert half-chances will be critical. However, Dinamo have struggled to keep clean sheets all season, averaging over two goals conceded per game in Europe. This suggests that while they are likely to score, they are equally likely to be caught on the counter by a Genk side that transitions quickly through Ito and Medina.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Genk are very strong at attacking dead balls, creating high-quality chances from corners and free-kicks.
Conceding 2.11 goals per game in Europe shows a fundamental struggle to stay organised for 90 minutes.
📊 Scoreline Probability Dashboard
A 2-1 scoreline is plausible as Genk’s attacking volume meets Dinamo’s defensive vulnerability and attacking desperation.
Frequently Asked Questions
⊕ What does ‘Both Teams to Score’ (BTTS) mean?
BTTS is a bet where you win if both teams score at least one goal each during the match. It does not matter who wins or what the final score is, as long as neither team has a zero.
⊕ Why is Genk favoured to win this match?
Genk are favoured because of their strong European form and their 3-1 lead from the first leg. They have won three straight Europa League games and are playing at home.
⊕ Who is the main scoring threat for Dinamo Zagreb?
Dion Beljo is the primary threat, having scored five goals in the Europa League this season. Dinamo will rely on him to lead their comeback attempt.
⊕ How does the ‘Match Result & BTTS’ market work?
This combines two bets: you pick the winner (Genk, Dinamo, or Draw) and also bet that both teams will score. Both parts must be correct for the bet to win.
⊕ What happens if the game ends 1-1 for a Match Result Genk & BTTS bet?
The bet would lose because, while both teams scored, Genk did not win the match. The “Match Result” portion of the bet requires a Genk victory.
⊕ Why is Correct Score considered a high-risk market?
It is high-risk because you must predict the exact score. Football is unpredictable, and a single goal at any time can change a winning ticket into a losing one.
⊕ Does Genk have any major injury concerns?
Konstantinos Karetsas is a major doubt following a concussion. His absence would be significant as he is a primary creator for the team.
⊕ Is Dinamo Zagreb’s defence a concern for this match?
Yes, Dinamo have conceded in every Europa League match this season. Their average of 2.11 goals conceded per game makes a clean sheet unlikely against Genk.
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