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Two sides level on points and both eyeing automatic last-16 qualification in the Conference League meet at the Mewa Arena on Thursday night (18 December, 20:00), with Mainz 05 hosting Samsunspor. The carrot is obvious: win here and you lock in a top-eight finish, sidestepping the knockout playoff round. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Mainz’s home matches have regularly stayed low-scoring, with under 2.5 landing in 86% of their Bundesliga home fixtures and their home scoring rate at 0.71 per game. Samsunspor’s overall match-goals average is 2.5 and 56% of their league games have finished under 2.5, with a strong pattern of slow starts shown by 0-0 being their most frequent half-time scoreline. With both sides chasing top-eight qualification, the game shape looks more like controlled spells than chaos.
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The 1-1 draw is the most frequent full-time scoreline in Samsunspor’s league season (four times, 25%), and it’s also one of Mainz’s most common results (three times, 21%). It aligns with a match where Mainz’s home scoring issues cap the ceiling, but Samsunspor’s away scoring reliability means they can still find a moment. It’s a lean rather than a certainty, because an early goal can quickly rewrite the script.
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Mainz 05 vs Samsunspor Predictions and Best Bets
Mainz 05 vs Samsunspor — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and example odds based on our match analysis.
Pricing suggests the home side are shorter than the draw and Samsunspor, but there’s still room for a tight game state if it stays cagey early.
The scoreline pricing leans towards tight margins, with low-scoring outcomes and the 1–1 draw featuring prominently for a tense night at the Mewa Arena.
The goal-line pricing keeps things finely balanced, with a clear path to a tight scoreboard but enough attacking threat on both sides for swings in momentum.
If you expect a tight contest or a cautious start, these markets reflect how pricing can lean towards “avoid defeat” angles and the possibility of a draw at key checkpoints.
- Mainz are 18th in the Bundesliga with one win in 14, and that struggle shows up in front of goal: 13 scored and a 50% “failed to score” rate overall, shaping a cautious match script.
- Mainz’s home league games have been consistently tight: under 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of their home fixtures, reflecting a low-scoring pattern that keeps games on a knife-edge.
- Samsunspor’s away profile is sharp: they’ve gone 3-3-1 away, score 1.86 goals per away match and have a 0% “failed to score” rate on the road, meaning they can still nick a goal even in tense games.
Scoring Reliability: How Often They Score at Least Once
A simple way to frame the likely game state: how regularly each side actually gets on the scoresheet in league play, based on the “scored over 0.5” rate.
Their home scoring rate is 0.71 goals per match, and the frequency of blank home scorelines (57%) shows why many games stay tight.
They average 1.86 goals per away match, and their away “failed to score” rate is 0%, hinting they usually find a moment even on the road.
Tight Scorelines: Games Finishing With 2 or Fewer Total Goals
This captures how often matches stay within a narrow scoreboard, based on the share of league games that land under the 2.5-goal line.
Their home matches average 2.29 total goals, and the low home scoring output often keeps games in a narrow range.
Their season match-goals average is 2.5, and over half of their league fixtures still stay below the 2.5-goal line.
First-Half Pattern: Slow Starts vs Early Threat
Early phases often decide whether a match opens up. These two numbers highlight a tendency towards patience before the game properly catches fire.
Their first-half scoring average at home is 0.29, underlining why many home games need a spark to move beyond the tactical feeling-out period.
A 0–0 half-time being their most common outcome is consistent with games that take time to open, even when they eventually find goals later on.
Can Mainz’s European night at the Mewa Arena tilt the balance against confident travellers Samsunspor?
you’ve turned a fast-track route into a slog. It’s the sort of game that can feel like it’s being played with a calculator in one hand and a map of Europe in the other. The team shapes hinted at by the possible line-ups make it even more intriguing. Mainz 05 are listed in a set-up that reads like a back three: Batz behind Da Costa, Bell and Potulski, with Nordin and Lee either side of Maloney and Sano, and then Nebel and Böving supporting Hollerbach. Whether you call it a 3-4-2-1 or a 3-4-3 with narrow forwards, it suggests Mainz want a bit of structure behind the ball and decent coverage of the wide areas — the kind of framework you lean on when your domestic form has been rough.
Samsunspor’s possible XI looks more like a back four: Kocuk in goal; Yavru, Šatka, Van Drongelen and Gonul in defence; Makoumbou holding; then Kilinc, Holse, Ntcham and Musaba as a line of creators/ball-carriers behind Mouandilmadji. That can function as a 4-1-4-1, but it can also tilt into a 4-2-3-1 feel depending on how close Ntcham and Makoumbou play. Either way, there’s a clear “one up, many around” attacking picture — good for counterpunching and good for pinning a team back when you can sustain territory.
The wider context of their seasons paints a contrast in confidence. Mainz sit 18th in the Bundesliga after 14 matches with one win, four draws and nine losses, scoring 13 and conceding 26. At home it’s been especially grim: no wins in seven, with two draws and five losses. They’re averaging 0.71 goals scored per home match and have failed to score in 57% of home league games, with a clean-sheet rate of 0% across the season. That’s a lot of hard minutes where you feel like you’re climbing a hill in boots filled with concrete.
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Samsunspor, meanwhile, are 6th in the Süper Lig after 16 matches with six wins, seven draws and three losses, scoring 22 and conceding 18. Their away record stands out: three wins, three draws and one defeat, with 1.86 goals scored per away match and a 0% “failed to score” rate away. In other words, they’ve generally found a way to lay a glove on opponents on the road, even when the game isn’t flowing perfectly.
All of that frames the match as a collision between a Mainz side that need control and stability, and a Samsunspor side that look comfortable travelling and trading punches. It doesn’t guarantee a particular game state — nothing does in a one-off European night — but it does nudge you towards expecting fine margins, long spells where one side tries to manage risk, and short bursts where the other side tries to make the moment count.
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Best Bet for Mainz 05 vs Samsunspor
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Under 2.5 Goals
Rationale
Start with the way this is likely to be built, because the shapes matter. Mainz’s probable back three with wing-backs (Nordin and Lee) gives them the bones to defend wide spaces without constantly dragging a centre-back out of the line. Against a Samsunspor side that can station four midfield/attacking midfield types behind a lone striker, those wing-backs become the first key pressure points: hold your nerve and you can stop the easy entries into wide crossing zones; get stretched and you invite the kind of cutbacks and second-ball shots that turn tight matches messy.
With Lee and Da Costa in that likely XI, Mainz also have players who appear in their scoring list (Lee has two Bundesliga goals; Da Costa has two), which hints that some of their goal threat can come from deeper or wider areas rather than a single dominant finisher. That’s relevant because Mainz’s overall scoring output has been low: 13 goals in 14 league matches (0.93 per match), and at home it drops to 0.71. When a side’s chance creation doesn’t consistently translate into goals — their shot conversion rate is listed at 9% overall and 6% at home — matches often stay alive longer, and that can push both coaches towards more guarded game management rather than all-out chaos.
Samsunspor, for their part, arrive with a more reliable away scoring profile (1.86 goals scored per away match, and they’ve always scored in away league games). But that doesn’t automatically mean a shootout here. Their overall match-goals average is 2.5, and 56% of their league games have finished under 2.5 goals. Their most frequent half-time scoreline is 0-0 (six times, 38%), which is a neat indicator of games that take time to open up — whether through caution, structure, or simply the way their matches develop. That matters because a slow first half is half the job done for an under, especially in a fixture where both teams know a single mistake can flip the whole qualification picture.
The Mainz home goal profile also pulls in the same direction. In their Bundesliga matches at the Mewa Arena, 86% have landed under 2.5 goals. That isn’t just a “they don’t score” story; it’s a “the game often stays within a narrow band” story — the sort where one goal can change everything, but it might not arrive early. Mainz’s home matches average 2.29 goals, and with their season clean-sheet rate sitting at 0%, there’s always a risk they concede — but the key point for this bet is that conceding doesn’t necessarily turn into a goal rush if you’re not equipped to answer with two or three of your own.
Tactically, you can picture the match as Mainz trying to keep the middle compact with Maloney and Sano, forcing Samsunspor to work through the sides, while Samsunspor try to create little overloads with Holse, Ntcham and Musaba rotating around Makoumbou’s base. If Mainz’s wing-backs don’t get pinned too deep, they can still step out and prevent easy progression; if they do get pinned, Mainz may choose to protect the box and accept territory rather than get dragged into end-to-end exchanges. Either way, that leans towards controlled spells rather than a track meet — and controlled spells are usually the friend of an under.
Under 2.5 isn’t pretending goals can’t happen. It’s simply backing the idea that the likely tempo, the stakes, and the scoring profiles — Mainz’s low home output and Samsunspor’s tendency for games to stay under 2.5 more often than not — point towards a match that can be decided without fireworks.
What could go wrong
The obvious danger is that Samsunspor’s away attack travels well: 1.86 goals per away match and a 0% away “failed to score” rate means they can land a punch. If Mainz concede early — particularly given they’ve conceded 26 in 14 league games and have no clean sheets — the game can shift into chase mode, and that’s when structure starts to crack and second goals arrive. There’s also the BTTS tension: Mainz’s BTTS rate is 50% overall (43% at home), while Samsunspor’s BTTS rate is 69% overall (86% away). If both sides score, you’re suddenly one swing away from the bet unraveling.
Correct score lean
If you want a scoreline that matches the “tight game” story, 1-1 is a reasonable lean. Mainz’s most frequent full-time scorelines include 1-1 (three times, 21%), and Samsunspor’s most frequent full-time scoreline is also 1-1 (four times, 25%). It fits the sense of a match where neither side fully runs away with it.
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