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Lausanne Sport vs Fiorentina Predictions Thursday evening brings a proper bit of jeopardy in the Conference League as Fiorentina travel to Lausanne Sport with knockout-stage stakes hanging over every pass. Both sides are sitting in a playoff place, and the Italians arrive one point better off than their Swiss hosts. That makes the equation fairly simple: win it and you’re in a far stronger position; slip up and you’re inviting stress. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Lausanne’s home league games average 3.67 total goals and they score 2.22 per home match, which supports a more open match script. Fiorentina concede 1.73 per league game and have conceded in 87% of Serie A fixtures, so they often give opponents chances. With Fiorentina listing Džeko and Kean up top, there’s a clear route to goals at both ends if the game breaks into transitions. It’s still a high-stakes tie, so a slow start is a risk, but the overall profile leans towards three goals being reachable.
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A 1–2 away win fits a match where Fiorentina’s front pairing can cash in from wide service, while Lausanne’s home scoring rate (2.22 per match) keeps them live for a goal. The scoreline also shows up as the most frequent Fiorentina full-time result (three times) and Lausanne Sport’s most frequent overall scoreline (three times), so it’s a pattern that has appeared repeatedly. As ever, it’s sensitive to early game state: a 0–0 half-time would put it under pressure.
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Lausanne Sport vs Fiorentina Predictions and Best Bets
Lausanne Sport vs Fiorentina — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and example odds for context.
The market makes Fiorentina the shorter side, while Lausanne Sport and the draw sit in the “live underdog” range — a setup that can swing on first goal and game state.
These are a small cluster of commonly-backed outcomes, shown with implied probabilities derived from the listed odds.
A quick snapshot of a few common goals angles, with implied probabilities taken directly from the listed odds.
The first-half lines offer a neat read on whether the market expects an early breakthrough or a slower burn.
- Lausanne Sport’s home matches average 3.67 total goals, and they score 2.22 goals per home game—that combination suggests their best route is to make it open, which matters for a goals-based selection.
- Fiorentina concede 1.73 goals per Serie A match and have conceded in 87% of league games—those are measures of defensive vulnerability that can help push a game beyond two total goals.
- Both teams’ league games regularly see goals at both ends: Lausanne Sport BTTS 71% and Fiorentina BTTS 67%, a pattern that often aligns with matches clearing the 2.5-goal line.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per Domestic League Game
One quick way to gauge match “chaos” is total goals per league game — it captures both teams’ scoring and conceding patterns in a single number.
Their league games often feature action at both ends, which can push matches away from a low-event script.
Their games still land in goal territory regularly, even if the scoring output has been more modest.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets in the League
Clean sheets are a simple “shut-the-door” indicator — how often a side keeps the opposition out across a domestic campaign.
A quarter of league games without conceding is useful, but it still leaves plenty of fixtures where opponents find a way through.
With shutouts rarer, game states can change quickly — especially if the first concession forces them to open up.
Attacking Reliability: Matches with a Goal Scored
This looks at how often each side manages at least one goal in domestic league play — a simple proxy for “will they contribute to the scoreboard?”
They find the net in most league games, which keeps them live even when the match doesn’t go perfectly to plan.
They still score in a majority of league fixtures, but the drop-off leaves more room for “one big chance” pressure.
Can Lausanne Sport turn it into a shootout, or will Fiorentina control the key moments in Switzerland?
The selection of players expected to start hints at two very different ways of trying to solve the same problem. Lausanne Sport’s likely XI reads like a back four in front of Castella, with Soppy, Mouanga, Sow and Fofana set to protect the box. In front of them, Sigua and Roche look the natural candidates to keep the midfield honest, before Butler-Oyedeji, Al Saad and Lekoueiry support Bair.
Fiorentina’s probable shape points towards three at the back in front of De Gea, with Comuzzo, Marí and Viti as the central platform. The width appears to come from Dodô and Parisi, while Richardson, Nicolussi Caviglia and Sohm suggest a three-man midfield built to move the ball and compete for second balls. Then there’s the headline: Džeko and Kean paired up top, which immediately raises the question of how Lausanne defend the penalty area when deliveries start arriving.
So what does that do to the rhythm of the match? Lausanne, at home, have shown they can turn games into high-event affairs, while Fiorentina’s domestic numbers point to a side living on fine margins and often conceding. Put those together and you can see why this one feels like it could swing quickly—especially if the first goal forces someone to chase.
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Why we Publish Only One Tip
At BettingTips4You, we publish one primary pick to keep the preview clear and accountable. Football matches are messy, full of moments you can’t script—deflections, big saves, a red-card flashpoint—so piling on selections can blur the reasoning. One tip keeps the analysis focused on the most justifiable angle, while still recognising there’s risk and that outcomes don’t always follow the neatest narrative.
Best Bet for Fiorentina vs Lausanne Sport
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Over 2.5 Goals
Rationale
Start with the likely shapes, because they hint at where the game could be won and lost.
Lausanne Sport’s expected back four—Soppy, Mouanga, Sow and Fofana—may find themselves dealing with a very specific kind of pressure: Fiorentina’s width and crossing lanes. With Dodô on one side and Parisi on the other, Fiorentina look set up to stretch the pitch, pull full-backs into uncomfortable distances, and ask questions with deliveries into the box. That matters because Fiorentina are also listing Džeko and Kean together, which naturally encourages a more direct end product: get into wide areas, get it in early, and let your forwards compete in front of goal.
The trade-off is that a wing-back-heavy look can leave space behind the wide players when possession turns over. Lausanne’s likely support cast behind Bair—Butler-Oyedeji, Al Saad and Lekoueiry—reads like a line built for transitions into the channels. If Lausanne can nick the ball off the first or second pass in midfield, they’ve got options to attack the gaps either side of Fiorentina’s back three, or to draw midfielders out and create shooting lanes around the box. In short: Fiorentina’s attacking structure can also hand Lausanne the sort of “one good break” moments that change games.
The numbers fit that picture as well. Lausanne Sport’s league matches average 2.94 total goals, which is simply the combined goals in their games per match; that suggests their fixtures often don’t stay locked down for 90 minutes. At home it gets even more open: they average 3.67 total goals per match, and they score 2.22 goals per home game. That doesn’t guarantee anything on the night, but it does point towards a home side that contributes to the scoreboard often enough to keep an “overs” angle alive.
Fiorentina’s domestic profile supports the other side of the “over” argument: vulnerability. They concede 1.73 goals per Serie A match, which is a blunt measure of how frequently opponents are getting through them. They also concede in 87% of their league games (that’s what “conceded over 0.5” captures), which suggests clean sheets have been hard to come by. For an over 2.5 goals pick, you don’t need perfection—just a match state where chances keep appearing, and Fiorentina’s concession rate is consistent with that.
There’s also a scoring-pattern nudge. Fiorentina average 0.80 goals scored per match in Serie A, while Lausanne Sport average 1.59 in the Swiss league. Those are different competitions, so you treat them carefully, but they still help frame the expectation: Lausanne have been the more regular scorers, Fiorentina have been the more regular conceders, and Fiorentina’s probable front two gives them a route to goals even if the wider performance isn’t pretty.
Finally, the “both teams involved” picture isn’t out of nowhere: Lausanne Sport land BTTS in 71% of league games, and Fiorentina land BTTS in 67%. BTTS is a different market, but the point is simple—both sides’ matches frequently include goals at both ends, which is generally friendly territory for an over 2.5 goals bet.
What could go wrong?
This is still football, and this is still a high-stakes European night. Lausanne have had 0–0 draws at home (including 0–0 against Basel and Lugano), and Fiorentina’s own most frequent half-time scoreline is 0–0 in their league season. If the first half becomes a chess match, or if Fiorentina’s finishing continues to lag behind the volume suggested by their 1.23 xG per match, the game can drift. And if one side scores and then goes into pure protection mode, the tempo can flatten quickly.
Correct score lean
Lausanne Sport 1–2 Fiorentina feels like a reasonable lean if you want a scoreline that matches a game with goals. It’s also consistent with the fact that 1–2 is Fiorentina’s most frequent full-time scoreline this season (three times), and it’s also Lausanne Sport’s most frequent scoreline overall (three times). That doesn’t make it fate—just a familiar pattern.
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