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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Freiburg: Defensive Fragility Shapes the DFB-Pokal Test. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Freiburg's strong attacking display contrasts with Fortuna's poor defensive form, conceding 10 goals in six matches without a clean sheet. Both teams have conceded in six consecutive games, making a Freiburg win with both teams scoring a plausible outcome given recent patterns.
Freiburg's 26 shots and three goals at Motherwell meet a leaky Fortuna defence conceding 10 goals in six matches. Fortuna's scoring record against Freiburg and possible Freiburg rotation support a 1-3 away win, though exact scores remain fragile.
Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Fortuna Düsseldorf v SC Freiburg.
Fortuna Dusseldorf host Freiburg in the DFB-Pokal on Sunday with the early evidence pointing towards a contest shaped less by reputation than by defensive vulnerability.
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Freiburg — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Freiburg's recent form and attacking strength give them the edge over Fortuna.
Freiburg's recent wins and form make them the likely match winner.
Both teams' defensive records suggest a match with multiple goals.
Freiburg's attacking volume and Fortuna's defensive struggles support this exact scoreline.
Three Punchy Stats
- Fortuna have conceded in six consecutive matches, allowing 10 goals in total. Against a Freiburg side that produced 26 shots at Motherwell, that defensive run is the clearest concern.
- Freiburg have also conceded in six straight games, shipping 11 goals. Their stronger attack has masked some of that vulnerability, but Fortuna have evidence that chances may be available.
- The last six meetings have produced 16 goals, with Fortuna winning three and Freiburg two. Recent history between the sides has been more balanced than their current divisional positions might imply.
Goals Scored
Recent attacking records for Fortuna Dusseldorf and Freiburg are shown below.
Goals Conceded
Recent defensive records for Fortuna Dusseldorf and Freiburg are shown below.
Fortuna have lost both of their opening 3. Liga matches and arrive after a 2-0 defeat to Hoffenheim II. Freiburg, by contrast, began their competitive campaign with a 3-1 Conference League qualifying win at Motherwell. Yet neither side can claim much recent defensive security: both have conceded in each of their last six matches.
That gives the tie a useful tension. Freiburg carry the stronger recent attacking evidence, but their own record without the ball leaves Fortuna with a plausible route into the game.
Fortuna need to turn home advantage into resistance
Alexander Ende’s side have endured a difficult opening to the season, and their wider defensive sequence explains why those two defeats cannot simply be dismissed as a slow start.
Fortuna have conceded 10 goals across their last six matches and failed to keep a clean sheet in any of them. Their latest defeat also ended a run of two successive competitive home victories, while three losses in their past five games at the Merkur Spiel-Arena show that their own ground has not been consistently protective.
The challenge becomes sharper against a Freiburg side already carrying competitive momentum. Fortuna can at least take encouragement from their recent history in this fixture: across the last six meetings, they have won three, drawn one and lost two, scoring nine of the 16 goals between the sides.
That does not erase the current gap in form, but it does make this less straightforward than league status alone would suggest.
Freiburg are creating plenty, but giving opponents chances too
Freiburg’s 3-1 victory at Motherwell offered an immediate demonstration of their attacking capacity. They had 60% possession, attempted 26 shots and put 10 on target, with Matthias Ginter scoring twice before Keisuke Goto added a third.
Those are forceful attacking numbers. The more revealing detail, though, is that Freiburg still conceded despite restricting Motherwell to only four attempts and a single shot on target.
It fits a broader pattern. Freiburg have been breached in six consecutive matches and have conceded 11 times across that sequence. Their attacking output may currently be strong enough to compensate, but the defence has not been airtight.
Sunday therefore asks whether Fortuna can produce enough threat to make that weakness relevant. Freiburg’s recent away record is mixed rather than dominant: the Motherwell victory was their first match without defeat in five away outings, although it was also their fourth win across the last eight on the road.
Rotation could alter Freiburg’s rhythm
Julian Schuster is expected to make several changes following Thursday’s European fixture, with Jan-Niklas Beste, Yuito Suzuki and Igor Matanovic among those who could drop out.
Keisuke Goto may start as the number nine after scoring against Motherwell, with Cyriaque Irie and Lucas Holer possible supporting options. Philipp Lienhart is also expected to come into the side after Maximilian Rosenfelder was forced off in midweek.
Fortuna may retain the 4-4-2 shape they have often used. Tim Oberdorf and Feliz Meiser are possible centre-back selections, with Marcel Benger and Elias Arden potentially providing protection in midfield.
The significant point is not the systems themselves but the contrast in preparation. Freiburg arrive off a competitive European match and may rotate; Fortuna have had a full week since defeat to Hoffenheim II but urgently need a response after two league losses.
Cup history adds context, not comfort
Fortuna have won the DFB-Pokal twice, but their recent record in the competition has been far less imposing. They have failed to progress beyond the second round in nine of their last 13 appearances and were beaten 3-1 by Freiburg at that stage last season.
Freiburg reached the semi-finals in 2025-26, their third final-four appearance in five editions. Their recent cup record therefore carries considerably more weight, although the defensive trend prevents this tie from looking entirely one-sided.
Other opportunities in this market:
- Match Result (Freiburg @ 4/11): Settles solely on Freiburg winning after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It removes the requirement for Fortuna to score, offering a higher settlement probability across scorelines like 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0, but at a shorter price.
- Both Teams to Score YES (@ 4/6): Settles as winning if both teams score at least once in 90 minutes, regardless of whether the match ends in a draw, home win, or away win.
- Over 2.5 Goals (@ 2/5): Requires at least three total match goals in 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It covers a broader set of winning scorelines than an exact score bet, including 2-1, 3-0, 2-2, or 3-1.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Freiburg to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Freiburg 1-3. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Freiburg to win and both teams to score @ 6/4
Freiburg enter this DFB-Pokal tie with clear competitive momentum following a 3-1 Conference League victory at Motherwell, where they generated 26 total attempts and placed 10 on target. That attacking volume contrasts sharply with Fortuna Dusseldorf’s recent defensive form. Fortuna have lost both of their opening 3. Liga matches, including a 2-0 defeat to Hoffenheim II, and have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six fixtures while allowing 10 goals in total.
However, Freiburg’s defensive numbers prevent this fixture from appearing entirely one-sided. Freiburg have also conceded in six consecutive matches, allowing 11 goals across that run, and conceded to Motherwell despite restricting them to just a single shot on target. Fortuna possess recent scoring context against this opponent, having won three of the last six head-to-head meetings while scoring nine of the 16 total goals in those games. While Fortuna’s three losses in their past five matches at the Merkur Spiel-Arena highlight domestic struggles, Freiburg’s vulnerability at the back provides the hosts with a credible path to find the net.
The principal counter-argument rests on Fortuna’s dismal cup record, having failed to progress beyond the second round in nine of their last 13 DFB-Pokal campaigns. Potential squad rotation from Julian Schuster following Thursday’s European trip could also disrupt Freiburg’s fluidity. Nevertheless, with both defences consistently giving up goals, pairing a Freiburg victory with both teams scoring aligns with each side’s recent 90-minute patterns.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Freiburg generated 26 shots and 10 on target at Motherwell.
- Both teams conceded in six consecutive matches, Freiburg 11 goals, Fortuna 10.
- Fortuna won three of last six meetings, scoring nine goals in those games.
Risk Factor: This pick fails if Freiburg keep a clean sheet or if Fortuna avoid defeat, given recent head-to-head results.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Generated 26 total attempts and 10 shots on target in their 3-1 midweek victory at Motherwell.
Unbeaten-run broken with zero clean sheets in six matches, conceding 10 goals in that period.
📊 Pick 2: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Freiburg 1-3 @ 9/1
A 3-1 victory for Freiburg mirrors their midweek Conference League result at Motherwell and matches the exact scoreline from when these two clubs met in the DFB-Pokal second round last season. Freiburg demonstrated their ability to build high goal tallies by producing 26 shots and scoring three times in Scotland. That firepower meets a Fortuna defence currently experiencing significant leakiness, having conceded 10 goals across their last six outings and opening their 3. Liga campaign with back-to-back defeats. Fortuna’s backline surrendered two goals to Hoffenheim II last weekend, making three goals for the visitors a realistic projection.
Justifying Fortuna’s single goal relies on Freiburg’s persistent inability to keep clean sheets. Freiburg have surrendered 11 goals across six consecutive games without a shut-out, allowing Motherwell to score from their only shot on target on Thursday. Fortuna have scored nine goals across their last six meetings with Freiburg, indicating they regularly find ways through this specific opposition. Furthermore, Fortuna have had a full week to prepare, whereas Freiburg face possible squad rotation following European action, which could lead to minor defensive lapses.
While last season’s 3-1 DFB-Pokal result offers historical precedent, correct score selections remain inherently fragile. A single additional goal from Freiburg’s rotated frontline or a shutout victory would defeat the bet. Nevertheless, combining Freiburg’s superior shot production with both teams’ identical six-match conceding streaks makes 1-3 a well-supported scoreline.
Risk Factor: Both teams have conceded in six straight matches, increasing goal likelihood.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "Freiburg to win and both teams to score" mean?
Freiburg must win and Fortuna must score at least once in normal time for this bet to win.
How does the Correct Score market settle for this match?
Correct Score bets settle on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
Why is Both Teams to Score relevant here?
Both teams have conceded in six consecutive matches, making goals likely from both sides.
Does Freiburg's recent European match affect this game?
Freiburg's recent European win offers match sharpness but less rest than Fortuna's full week.
What is the recent head-to-head record between these teams?
Fortuna won three, drew one, and lost two of the last six meetings against Freiburg.
How has Fortuna performed in recent DFB-Pokal campaigns?
Fortuna failed to progress beyond the second round in nine of their last 13 DFB-Pokal appearances.
