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Udinese vs Calcio Padova: Cup Tie Pits Control Against Padova’s Volatility. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Udinese’s pre-season wins and Serie A experience give them an edge, but their concession of 1.33 goals per game leaves room for Padova’s attacking threat. Padova’s recent scoring form and defensive vulnerabilities suggest both sides will find the net despite Udinese’s control.
A 2-1 scoreline balances Udinese’s efficient attack against Padova’s open style. Padova’s defensive frailties and Udinese’s shot volume support the hosts scoring twice, while Padova’s consistent goal-scoring in recent matches justifies their single goal in this predicted close contest.
Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Udinese v Padova.
Udinese open their Coppa Italia campaign against Calcio Padova at the Dacia Arena with recent results pointing in two rather different directions.
Udinese vs Padova — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Udinese’s stronger league status and recent pre-season wins position them as favourites against Padova’s inconsistent away form.
Padova’s matches often feature multiple goals, while Udinese’s games tend to be tighter and lower scoring.
Udinese’s shot volume and Padova’s defensive lapses support a narrow home win with both teams scoring.
Udinese’s higher shot accuracy and Padova’s recent away defeats highlight a tactical mismatch favouring the hosts.
Three Punchy Stats
- Udinese average 11.66 shots per game to Padova’s 11.03, suggesting the difference between these teams may lie more in what they do with their opportunities than in raw shooting volume.
- Padova have lost four of their last six away matches, a significant counterweight to a recent sequence in which they won four of their final six Serie B fixtures.
- Only 33% of Udinese’s latest six matches produced over 2.5 goals, compared with 67% of Padova’s, neatly capturing the clash between the hosts’ recent control and the visitors’ greater volatility.
Shot Volume Comparison
Udinese recorded 11.66 shots per match and Padova recorded 11.03 across the shared recent sample.
Udinese’s figure reflects measured shot volume only.
Padova’s figure reflects measured shot volume only.
Over 2.5 Goals Comparison
Padova carry the sharper scoring trend, while Udinese need greater efficiency in the final third.
Udinese’s recent goal pattern points to openings, while Padova carry enough threat to respond.
Padova can stretch Udinese in transition and keep opportunities flowing at both ends.
Kosta Runjaic’s side finished 10th in Serie A and ended an uneven pre-season with successive 1-0 victories over Nottingham Forest and Barcelona. Padova, 10th in Serie B last term, arrive having drawn 3-3 with Monza after beating Cittadella 2-0.
The contrast goes deeper than results. Udinese have recently produced tight, low-scoring matches; Padova’s summer has become considerably more chaotic. Saturday’s question is whether Antonio Calabro’s side can turn that attacking freedom into something sustainable against stronger opposition without leaving themselves too exposed.
Udinese have found a more controlled finish
Runjaic’s team lost three of their first four friendlies before those two closing victories, both played over 45 minutes as part of the Friuli Venezia Giulia Cup. Nicolo Zaniolo was named Player of the Tournament, providing another positive before competitive football resumes.
Their wider scoring profile is relatively restrained. Across the latest six matches, Udinese have averaged one goal scored and 1.33 conceded, with only 33% producing more than 2.5 goals. Their longer-term figures tell a similar story: 49 goals scored and 51 conceded across 41 matches, while 56% finished below 2.5 goals.
There is no overwhelming attacking edge in the underlying volume either. Udinese average 11.66 shots per game, with 35% on target, compared with Padova’s 11.03 and 33%. The gap exists, but it is hardly enormous.
Padova’s attacking numbers need context
Padova’s latest six matches have averaged four total goals, with both teams scoring in 67% and 67% also clearing 2.5 goals. They have scored 1.67 per match during that sequence but conceded 2.33.
That makes them appear far more open than Udinese, although their competitive finish to last season was less straightforward. Padova won four of their final six Serie B matches, three of those victories coming by 1-0 before a wild 4-3 success at Cesena.
Their away record is the obvious complication. Four of their last six trips ended in defeat, including losses to Virtus Entella, Frosinone, Venezia and Avellino. The victories at Modena and Cesena show they are capable of producing away from home, but consistency has been missing.
Lasagna and Caprari sharpen the attacking threat
Kevin Lasagna scored twice in the 3-3 draw with Monza, while he and Gianluca Caprari have each contributed two goals across Padova’s final two summer friendlies. With Papu Gomez still returning from a serious ankle injury, that recent output gives Calabro a clear source of attacking encouragement.
Udinese have personnel issues of their own. Arthur Atta and Jordan Zemura have left, Thomas Kristensen is bound for Atalanta, while Giorgi Chakvetadze and Alessandro Zanoli are injured. New arrivals Unai Gomez and Mergim Vojvoda may be involved, and Lennon Miller could receive an opportunity.
The hosts nevertheless have the more favourable recent cup record. Udinese won two matches in last season’s competition before Juventus ended their run 2-0 in the last 16. Padova have fallen in the preliminary round four times across the past five years.
Recent home form stops this being quite as comfortable a comparison as divisional status might imply. Udinese have lost three of their last six home matches, scoring in only two of them. Padova’s four defeats in six away fixtures offer an equally obvious weakness.
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Selection: Udinese to win and both teams to score. Both teams must score at least once during normal time. The match winner does not matter; the selection is settled only by whether each side finds the net.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Udinese vs Calcio Padova 2-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Udinese to win and both teams to score @ 11/5
Udinese enter this Coppa Italia tie with top-flight stature and encouraging pre-season momentum following 1-0 wins against Nottingham Forest and Barcelona. Kosta Runjaic’s side finished 10th in Serie A last term and demonstrated defensive discipline in those summer tests. However, their broader numbers reveal a team that still offers opposition chances, having conceded an average of 1.33 goals across their last six fixtures. With 11.66 shots per game and 35% on target, Udinese hold the baseline territorial edge over lower-league opposition, but their defensive record leaves room for Padova to make an impression.
Padova bring considerable volatility to the Dacia Arena. Antonio Calabro’s team have scored 1.67 goals per match across their latest six outings, highlighted by a 3-3 draw with Monza and recent pre-season strikes from Kevin Lasagna and Gianluca Caprari. Yet that attacking activity comes alongside clear defensive flaws. Padova have conceded 2.33 goals per match across that same six-game spell and lost four of their last six away matches against Virtus Entella, Frosinone, Venezia and Avellino.
Connecting Padova’s defensive fragility on the road with Udinese’s higher-level quality indicates the hosts should prevail, but Padova’s recent goalscoring form shows they can contribute to the scoreline. Udinese should control the match, yet Padova’s attacking output paired with Udinese’s recent defensive concessions makes a home win with goals at both ends a convincing scenario.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Udinese finished pre-season with back-to-back 1-0 victories over Nottingham Forest and Barcelona.
- Padova conceded 2.33 goals per match across their last six outings and lost four of their last six away fixtures.
- Both teams scored in 67% of Padova's latest six matches, including a 3-3 draw against Monza.
Risk Factor: Udinese kept clean sheets in their final two friendlies; replicating that could prevent Padova scoring.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Finished 10th in Serie A and hit 35% shot accuracy, backed by 1-0 pre-season wins over Forest and Barcelona.
Lost 4 of last 6 away matches and conceded 2.33 goals per match over their past six fixtures overall.
🎯 Pick 2: Udinese vs Calcio Padova 2-1 @ 7/1
A 2-1 victory for Udinese reflects the balance between top-tier efficiency and Padova’s aggressive, open style. To justify Udinese scoring at least twice, look at Padova’s recent defensive statistics. The Serie B club conceded 2.33 goals per match across their last six outings and suffered four defeats in six away trips. Udinese average 11.66 shots per game with 35% on target, giving them enough volume to break down a backline that leaked three goals against Monza and four against Cesena late last season.
Equally, Padova’s attacking record justifies their inclusion on the scoreline. Calabro’s side average 11.03 shots per game with 33% accuracy, proving they regularly generate opportunities. Lasagna scored twice in the 3-3 draw with Monza, and alongside Caprari, gives Padova genuine forward threat. Furthermore, both teams scored in 67% of Padova’s latest six matches. While Udinese managed clean sheets in short 45-minute friendly fixtures against Forest and Barcelona, their wider six-match sequence saw them concede 1.33 goals per game, demonstrating vulnerability when exposed over 90 minutes.
With Udinese missing defensive figures like Thomas Kristensen, Giorgi Chakvetadze, and Alessandro Zanoli, Padova possess sufficient attacking rhythm to find the net once. However, Padova’s record of four losses in six away trips strongly indicates Udinese will outscore them to secure a measured 2-1 win.
Risk Factor: Padova’s defensive frailty and away losses may allow Udinese to outscore them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "Udinese to win and both teams to score" mean?
Udinese must win the match in regular time and Padova must score at least one goal for the bet to pay out.
How does the Correct Score market work for this match?
You predict the exact final score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time; 2-1 means Udinese score two and Padova one.
Why is Udinese favoured to win this Coppa Italia tie?
Udinese play in Serie A with strong pre-season wins, while Padova have lost four of their last six away games.
What evidence supports Padova scoring a goal against Udinese?
Padova averaged 1.67 goals per match recently and scored three in a 3-3 draw; Udinese conceded 1.33 goals per match.
What is the difference between BTTS (Yes) and Over 2.5 Goals?
BTTS requires both teams to score regardless of total goals; Over 2.5 requires three or more goals in total.
How does Padova's away record affect the predictions?
Padova’s four losses in six away matches reinforce Udinese’s advantage and favour a home win.
What is Padova's recent history in the Coppa Italia?
Padova have been eliminated in the preliminary round four times in the past five years.
Do goals in extra time count toward these betting markets?
No, all standard match markets apply only to 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
