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Genoa vs Sudtirol: Defensive Pressure Gives the Underdogs a Route Into Coppa Italia Tie. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Genoa's defensive frailty, allowing 18.5 attempts and 5.3 shots on target per game, combined with Sudtirol's efficient scoring of 1.3 goals per match from 2.8 shots on target, supports a Both Teams To Score outcome. Genoa's decent attacking volume and Sudtirol's multiple goal contributors reinforce this prediction.
A 1-1 draw fits Genoa’s high defensive concession rate and Sudtirol’s strong defensive record. Both teams have shown scoring ability, but Sudtirol’s tight defense limits Genoa’s chances. The narrow margin means a second goal from either side or a clean sheet would void this bet.
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REGISTER FREE & UNLOCK TIP →Already registered? Log in18+ · Historical results only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Betting involves risk.Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Genoa v Sudtirol.
Genoa enter Tuesday’s Coppa Italia meeting with Sudtirol carrying the greater status but considerably less momentum.
Genoa vs Sudtirol — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Genoa and Sudtirol arrive with similar form, leaving fine margins likely to decide the result.
Genoa and Sudtirol show comparable scoring patterns, keeping goals at both ends firmly possible.
Genoa and Sudtirol look closely matched defensively, pointing towards a tight scoreline.
Genoa allow many attempts but Sudtirol's defense concedes fewer goals, balancing the scoreline.
Three Punchy Stats
- Genoa have conceded 18.5 attempts per game across their last four league and cup matches, highlighting how frequently opponents have been able to threaten them.
- Both sides average 2.8 shots on target across their recent four-game samples, but Sudtirol have scored 1.3 goals per match compared with Genoa’s 0.5.
- Sudtirol have conceded only 0.5 goals per game in that same period, a quarter of Genoa’s average of 2.0.
Scoring Streaks
Recent attacking records for Genoa and Sudtirol are shown below.
Clean Sheet Runs
Recent defensive records for Genoa and Sudtirol are shown below.
Daniele De Rossi’s side have taken only one point from their opening four Serie A matches, while Sudtirol remain unbeaten across their first four league fixtures and have already survived a demanding cup tie away to Catanzaro.
The obvious gap in divisional level therefore tells only part of the story at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Genoa have produced enough attacking volume to threaten opponents, but their recent defensive numbers leave room for a confident Sudtirol side to make this considerably less comfortable than the hosts would like.
Genoa’s Defensive Work Is the Bigger Concern
The problem is not simply that Genoa have conceded eight goals in four league matches. Their opponents have also been finding ways to generate repeated pressure.
Across their last four league and cup games, Genoa have allowed an average of 18.5 attempts and 5.3 shots on target. Frosinone alone managed around 26 efforts at the Ferraris at the weekend, despite Genoa finally collecting their first league point.
That level of exposure makes the concession rate of two goals per match easier to understand. It is difficult to sustain control when opponents are being allowed so many attempts, particularly with Sudtirol arriving in productive form.
Johan Vasquez has at least provided a contribution at the other end, scoring in the weekend draw, but his late red card added another complication to an already awkward start.
Shot Volume Has Not Produced Enough for Genoa
There is a second issue for De Rossi: Genoa have not been converting their own attacking work efficiently enough.
Their recent average of 12 attempts per game appears respectable in isolation, yet it has produced only 0.5 goals per match. Just 2.8 of those attempts have been on target.
That contrast matters. Genoa are not necessarily struggling to reach shooting positions; the greater concern is how little reward they have extracted from them. Their 4-1 first-round victory over Ascoli showed that they can punish weaker opposition, but their subsequent sequence of three defeats and a draw has looked very different.
Rotation could alter the picture. Cody Drameh and Hamed Traore may be given first starts, while Lorenzo Colombo could be rested. Elias Havel and Lorenzo Venturino are confirmed absentees.
Sudtirol Have Been More Efficient
Sudtirol’s recent attacking numbers are smaller but more productive. They have averaged 9.8 attempts across their last four league and cup matches, scoring 1.3 goals per game from 2.8 shots on target.
In other words, they are putting the same average number of efforts on target as Genoa while scoring considerably more often.
Alvin Okoro struck against Modena at the weekend, while Rares Burnete, Kenny Mixtur, Silvio Merkaj and Simone Davi have also scored once across the recent sample. The goals have been spread around rather than concentrated in one player.
Kenny Mixtur has already made a cup impact by scoring the late goal that took Sudtirol’s first-round tie with Catanzaro to penalties. Okoro and Burnete are both competing for attacking involvement, with Kevin Zeroli expected to feature in midfield.
The Contrast Is Clearer Without the Ball
Sudtirol have conceded only 0.5 goals per match across their latest four league and cup fixtures despite allowing 16.8 attempts on average.
That is an intriguing combination. Opponents are still managing plenty of shots, including four on target per game, yet Sudtirol have so far limited the damage far more effectively than Genoa.
It does not prove that resistance will hold against Serie A opposition, but it gives the visitors a credible platform. Genoa may have more possession and territorial pressure at home, yet recent evidence suggests that merely accumulating attempts will not be enough.
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Both teams must score at least once during normal time. The match winner does not matter; the selection is settled only by whether each side finds the net.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Genoa vs Sudtirol 1-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Both Teams To Score YES @ 9/10
Genoa enter this cup tie with defensive vulnerabilities that make the goalscorer markets and both teams scoring particularly relevant. Across their last four league and cup matches, Daniele De Rossi’s side have conceded an average of 18.5 attempts and 5.3 shots on target per game, yielding a concession rate of two goals per match. While they compete in Serie A, their inability to suppress opposition shot volume has repeatedly left their backline exposed, as shown when Frosinone generated 26 efforts against them at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
Sudtirol arrive in Genoa with defensive efficiency of their own alongside steady attacking output. Despite averaging just 9.8 attempts per match, the visitors have averaged 2.8 shots on target and scored 1.3 goals per game across their past four outings. Alvin Okoro, Rares Burnete, Kenny Mixtur, Silvio Merkaj and Simone Davi have all found the net in that stretch, demonstrating multiple avenues to goal. Facing a Genoa defensive unit that has managed only one point from four Serie A matches and recently saw Johan Vasquez sent off, Sudtirol possess the numbers to test the host defence. Conversely, Genoa averaged 12 attempts per match and previously put four goals past Ascoli in round one, indicating they retain sufficient volume to score at home against Serie B opposition who allow 16.8 attempts per game.
The primary risk stems from Genoa potentially rotating their starting line-up, with Lorenzo Colombo potentially rested while Cody Drameh and Hamed Traore push for starts. Nevertheless, Genoa’s high concession rate and Sudtirol’s regular conversion of limited shots on target leave Both Teams To Score YES well supported.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Genoa concede two goals per match allowing 18.5 attempts and 5.3 shots on target.
- Sudtirol score 1.3 goals per match from 2.8 shots on target.
- Genoa average 12 attempts per match and scored four goals versus Ascoli in cup.
Risk Factor: Genoa rotation may improve defense or Sudtirol might not convert limited shots against Serie A opposition.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Conceding 2.0 goals and 5.3 shots on target per match across their last four games.
Scoring 1.3 goals per game from 2.8 shots on target across their last four matches.
⚔️ Pick 2: Genoa vs Sudtirol 1-1 @ 13/2
📊 Scoreline Probability Dashboard
A 1-1 outcome aligns Genoa’s defensive concession rate (2.0 goals/gm allowed) with Sudtirol’s tight defensive record (0.5 goals/gm conceded).
A 1-1 draw represents a logical outcome when combining Genoa’s territorial output with Sudtirol’s defensive resistance. Genoa have averaged 12 attempts per match across their past four games, and while they have scored just 0.5 goals per match in Serie A action, their four-goal performance against Ascoli in the earlier cup round showed their capacity to find the net against non-top-flight sides. Even with potential rotation giving minutes to Cody Drameh or Hamed Traore, Genoa’s home status at the Ferraris provides enough platform to generate one goal, particularly against a Sudtirol team that has allowed an average of 16.8 attempts per fixture.
Sudtirol’s case for scoring once is underpinned by Genoa’s defensive record. De Rossi’s backline has conceded two goals per match while facing 5.3 shots on target per game. Sudtirol have consistently converted their opportunities, averaging 1.3 goals per game from 2.8 shots on target. With Alvin Okoro scoring at the weekend and Kenny Mixtur having already netted in the cup against Catanzaro, the visitors have shown they can capitalise when given chances. However, Sudtirol have also conceded only 0.5 goals per match themselves across their recent four-game run, suggesting they have the defensive structure to prevent Genoa from running away with the match.
The principal danger to a 1-1 correct score is its narrow tolerance; a second Genoa goal or a late winner from either side defeats the bet. Nonetheless, matching Genoa’s high defensive exposure against Sudtirol’s solid defensive concession rate makes 1-1 a coherent scoreline option.
Risk Factor: A 1-1 scoreline risks failing if either team scores twice, Genoa keep a clean sheet, or no goals are scored.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Both Teams To Score YES mean for Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Both teams must score at least one goal each within 90 minutes plus stoppage time for this bet to win.
Does extra time or penalties count towards the Correct Score bet?
No, only goals scored during 90 minutes plus stoppage time count for the Correct Score market.
Why does Genoa's defensive record support Sudtirol scoring?
Genoa concede many attempts and shots on target, giving Sudtirol frequent scoring chances.
How efficient have Sudtirol been in front of goal recently?
Sudtirol score 1.3 goals per match from 2.8 shots on target, showing good conversion.
What is the difference between Match Result and Correct Score betting?
Match Result predicts the winner or draw; Correct Score requires the exact final scoreline.
How could squad rotation impact Genoa's attacking performance?
Rotation may alter chemistry but Genoa have maintained 12 attempts per game recently.
