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Palermo vs Mantova: Two Perfect Starts, One Place in the Coppa Italia Last 16. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Palermo’s strong home record and recent three-match winning streak provide a solid base for victory while conceding to Mantova’s potent attack. Mantova’s seven goals in three wins and Ruocco’s scoring streak suggest they can breach Palermo’s defence, especially with goalkeeper Joronen injured, making a home win with both teams scoring a credible outcome.
A 2-1 scoreline fits both teams’ scoring records and recent fixture history, with multiple Palermo attackers contributing and Mantova’s Ruocco scoring in every game. The absence of Palermo’s goalkeeper increases Mantova’s scoring chances, though the narrow margin means a second Mantova goal or a clean sheet would void this pick.
Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Palermo v Mantova.
Palermo and Mantova meet at the Stadio Renzo Barbera on Thursday with identical competitive records and rather different reasons for confidence.
Palermo vs Mantova — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Palermo and Mantova arrive with similar form, leaving fine margins likely to decide the result.
Palermo and Mantova both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner.
Palermo and Mantova look closely matched defensively, pointing towards a tight scoreline.
Palermo and Mantova show similar overall levels, making execution more important than raw form.
Three Punchy Stats
- Palermo have won 16 of their last 20 home matches, including the last six in succession. Mantova's perfect start therefore meets a home record built over a much longer period.
- Mantova have scored seven goals across their three competitive victories, compared with Palermo's six. Their attack has so far been marginally more productive, with Ruocco scoring in every game.
- Seven of the eight recorded meetings between these sides since Palermo's last defeat in the fixture have ended level. The history favours Palermo avoiding defeat, but it also suggests Mantova have repeatedly proved difficult to shake off.
Recent Win Records
Recent attacking records for Palermo and Mantova are shown below.
Scoring Output
Recent defensive records for Palermo and Mantova are shown below.
Both have won all three matches this season, both eliminated Serie A opposition in the Coppa Italia, and both have already shown they can score under pressure.
The distinction is where their strengths appear most established. Palermo bring an exceptional recent home record and a long unbeaten sequence in this fixture; Mantova arrive with greater early-season scoring output in Serie B and the more eye-catching cup scalp, having won 2-0 away to Lazio. This is less a case of one side carrying momentum and the other trying to resist it. Both have plenty.
Palermo's Home Record Gives Their Perfect Start Extra Weight
Filippo Inzaghi's side have opened with three victories: 2-0 against Lecce, 1-0 against Juve Stabia and 3-2 away to Arezzo. That progression is revealing. Palermo have already won a controlled cup tie, a tight league contest and a five-goal away game.
Their home record extends well beyond those first two victories. Palermo have won six consecutive matches at the Renzo Barbera, nine of their last 10 there and 16 of the last 20. Against another unbeaten side, that consistency is arguably more meaningful than simply pointing to three wins from three.
Dennis Johnsen has been central to the strong start, contributing two goals and two assists across three competitive matches. Joel Pohjanpalo has a goal and an assist, while Johnsen, Filippo Ranocchia and Tommaso Augello all scored in the 3-2 victory at Arezzo.
Mantova Have Already Shown They Can Hurt Stronger Opposition
Mantova's own record demands respect. Francesco Modesto's team followed their 2-0 win at Lazio with a 2-1 victory over Carrarese and a 3-1 success against Empoli.
The Lazio result was particularly striking because Mantova found both goals late, through Francesco Ruocco in the 75th minute and Ismael Cajazzo in the 96th. Their reward is a chance to reach the Coppa Italia last 16 for the first time in recorded history.
Ruocco has scored in every competitive match this season, making his contribution more than an isolated cup moment. Vanja Vlahovic added another attacking option on debut against Empoli, scoring and assisting in the same game.
Mantova also produced eight shots on target in that 3-1 victory despite having only 45% possession. That is a useful warning for Palermo: control of the ball is no guarantee of control of the threat.
The Recent Fixture Record Leans Heavily Towards Palermo
Mantova's form is excellent, but their history against Palermo is awkward. The Rosanero have not lost this fixture since March 1963, although seven of the eight recorded meetings since then have been draws.
That detail tempers any suggestion of outright dominance. Palermo won the most recent meeting 2-1, with both teams finishing with 10 men, while the last four encounters have brought one Palermo victory and three draws.
There is also longer-term cup motivation for the hosts. Palermo have reached three Coppa Italia finals, in 1974, 1979 and 2011, but have not made the last 16 since 2012.
Jesse Joronen will miss out after suffering a shoulder injury against Lecce. Mantova's main fitness concern is Nicolo Radaelli, who has not played since April.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Palermo to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Palermo vs Mantova 2-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Palermo to win and both teams to score @ 5/2
Palermo’s relentless form at the Stadio Renzo Barbera provides a sturdy foundation for backing them to advance while conceding to a dangerous opponent. Filippo Inzaghi’s team have secured three straight victories across all competitions this season, defeating Lecce 2-0, Juve Stabia 1-0, and Arezzo 3-2. That winning run reflects a broader pattern of home strength, where Palermo have claimed 16 victories from their last 20 competitive home fixtures and won six in a row. Dennis Johnsen has driven this momentum with two goals and two assists, while Joel Pohjanpalo, Filippo Ranocchia, and Tommaso Augello have all found the net during early-season play.
Mantova arrive with three consecutive victories of their own, including a notable 2-0 away win against Lazio and a 3-1 triumph over Empoli. Francesco Modesto’s team have scored seven goals in three competitive matches, demonstrating threat without needing dominant ball share. In their victory against Empoli, Mantova generated eight shots on target despite controlling just 45% of possession. Forward Francesco Ruocco has scored in every match this season, while Vanja Vlahovic contributed a goal and an assist on debut. However, with Palermo goalkeeper Jesse Joronen sidelined by a shoulder injury, the visitors have a realistic avenue to breaching the host defence.
Although seven of the last eight recorded meetings between these clubs ended level, Palermo’s recent home momentum gives them the advantage. Mantova’s scoring form indicates they can reach the scoresheet, making the home victory combined with both teams scoring a well-grounded selection.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Palermo have won 16 of their last 20 home matches, including six consecutive victories at the Stadio Renzo Barbera.
- Mantova have scored seven goals in three competitive wins this season, with Francesco Ruocco scoring in every game.
- Palermo starting goalkeeper Jesse Joronen is sidelined due to a shoulder injury suffered against Lecce.
Risk Factor: Palermo may keep a clean sheet or Mantova could force a draw, invalidating the main selection.
Key Tactical Mismatch
16 victories in their last 20 home fixtures and six straight wins at the Stadio Renzo Barbera.
No victory against Palermo since March 1963, losing 2-1 in the most recent meeting.
⚔️ Pick 2: Palermo vs Mantova 2-1 @ 13/2
A 2-1 victory for Palermo aligns directly with the scoring credentials of both clubs while respecting historical precedents in this fixture. To achieve two goals, Palermo can lean on a forward line that has already produced six goals across three competitive outings this season. Filippo Inzaghi’s side registered a 3-2 away victory at Arezzo and a 2-0 home win over Lecce, proving they can create scoring opportunities consistently. Dennis Johnsen’s two goals and two assists, alongside Joel Pohjanpalo’s goal and assist, demonstrate that the hosts have multiple active contributors in attack. Crucially, the most recent meeting between these two teams at the Stadio Renzo Barbera also finished in a 2-1 Palermo victory.
Mantova provide solid justification for scoring one goal in reply. Francesco Modesto’s team have scored seven goals across their three competitive matches this season, netting twice against Lazio and Carrarese before hitting three against Empoli. Forward Francesco Ruocco enters this cup tie having scored in all three competitive appearances, while Vanja Vlahovic and Ismael Cajazzo have added further scoring depth. Mantova’s ability to generate eight shots on target against Empoli highlights their threat when breaking forward, while the absence of starting Palermo goalkeeper Jesse Joronen through injury increases the likelihood of the visitors scoring.
The primary risk to a 2-1 scoreline is its inherent narrowness. A second Mantova goal, or Palermo securing a clean sheet as they did against Lecce and Juve Stabia, would defeat the selection.
Risk Factor: A second Mantova goal or a Palermo clean sheet would invalidate the 2-1 correct score.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does backing Palermo to win and both teams to score mean?
Palermo must win and Mantova must score at least one goal during normal time.
What happens if Palermo win 2-0 against Mantova?
The bet loses because Mantova did not score, failing the both teams to score condition.
How does the Correct Score market settle in the Coppa Italia?
Only goals in regular time count; extra time and penalties do not affect settlement.
What makes Palermo strong favourites at the Stadio Renzo Barbera?
Palermo have won 16 of their last 20 home matches and six consecutive home games.
Can Mantova realistically score at Palermo?
Yes, Mantova have scored seven goals in three competitive wins this season.
Does extra time or penalties count toward these bets?
No, all bets settle on the 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
