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Genoa vs Ascoli: Coppa Italia Opener Tests De Rossi’s Rebuilt Side. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Genoa hold higher-tier status and historical edge over Ascoli but ended last season with limited scoring and just one win in six matches. Ascoli’s strong recent scoring record and superior possession and shot accuracy suggest they can score, making a Genoa win with both teams scoring a credible outcome.
A 3-1 correct score aligns with Genoa’s ability to score multiple goals and Ascoli’s consistent scoring record. Genoa’s offensive capability combined with Ascoli’s shot accuracy and history of conceding goals supports this exact scoreline as a plausible result.
Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Genoa v Ascoli.
Genoa begin their competitive season against Ascoli at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris with rather more to prove than the division gap might suggest.
Genoa vs Ascoli — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Genoa’s historical wins and Ascoli’s competitive momentum shape match outcome expectations.
Both teams’ scoring rates suggest a match with multiple goals.
Historical cup results and recent scoring support a 3-1 outcome.
Ascoli’s superior shot accuracy and possession indicate offensive threat.
Three Punchy Stats
- Ascoli have scored in 80% of their last 46 matches, compared with Genoa’s 61% across 41, giving the visitors a notably stronger record for finding the net.
- Genoa have won only one of their last six competitive matches, with two draws and three defeats, so their higher divisional status is not backed by recent league momentum.
- Ascoli average 61% possession and 11.63 shots per game, figures that suggest they are capable of making this tie far less passive than the difference in league level might imply.
Scoring Consistency Comparison
Recent attacking records for Genoa and Ascoli are shown below.
Defensive Stability Comparison
Recent defensive records for Genoa and Ascoli are shown below.
Daniele De Rossi’s side finished 16th in Serie A last term, ended the campaign without a win in five matches and have since endured a mixed pre-season that included a 10-1 defeat to Bournemouth. Ascoli arrive newly promoted to the second tier and already have one competitive victory behind them, recovering from two friendly defeats to beat Potenza 3-1 in the Coppa Italia preliminary round.
The fixture therefore pits higher-level status against sharper recent momentum.
Genoa need a cleaner break from last season
The closing weeks of 2025-26 did Genoa few favours. Their final six league matches produced one win, two draws and three defeats, with only three goals scored across that sequence. The broader figures tell a similar story: 47 goals in 41 matches, an average of 1.15 per game, with Genoa scoring in only 61% of those fixtures.
That makes Lorenzo Colombo particularly important. He finished last season as the club’s leading scorer with seven goals and remains after completing a permanent move from AC Milan. With Hamed Traore, Franz-Ethan Meichtry, Lorenzo Venturino and Joi Nuredini carrying fitness issues, the attacking options around him may not be at full strength.
Genoa have added Djibril Sow permanently and Traore on loan, but this first competitive outing is less about names than whether De Rossi’s side can generate more reliable attacking pressure.
Ascoli’s numbers deserve more respect than their status
Ascoli’s recent record is difficult to dismiss. Across their last six competitive matches they have won four, drawn one and lost one, scoring 12 goals and conceding four. Their promotion was sealed through a 4-1 aggregate playoff-final victory over Union Brescia, and the 3-1 comeback against Potenza showed that the step into cup competition has not interrupted their momentum.
Their wider attacking figures are also stronger than Genoa’s. Ascoli have averaged 1.76 goals across 46 matches, scoring in 80% of them, while Genoa’s corresponding figures are 1.15 goals and 61%.
There is an obvious warning attached. Those records have been compiled in different competitive environments, so direct comparison has limits. Yet the gap in attacking consistency is large enough to matter, especially when Genoa enter this tie after two months without competitive football.
Possession may not belong to the hosts
One of the more revealing contrasts concerns the ball itself. Genoa have averaged 49% possession, while Ascoli stand at 61%. The visitors have also produced 11.63 shots per game compared with Genoa’s 11.07 and have put 40% of their attempts on target, against 33% for the hosts.
That does not establish how Sunday’s match will unfold, but it challenges the assumption that the Serie A side will automatically dominate every phase. Ascoli have shown they can accumulate possession and attacking volume.
Their away record is less intimidating: two wins, two draws and two defeats from their last six on the road. Genoa’s home record over the same span is equally split, with three wins and three losses. Neither side has built the kind of venue-specific trend that removes uncertainty.
History favours Genoa, recent form complicates it
Genoa have won five of their last eight meetings with Ascoli and four of the six listed encounters, with one draw and one Ascoli victory. Their two previous Coppa Italia meetings produced one win each, both by 3-2 scorelines.
Yet Genoa’s recent cup history has been repetitive rather than progressive. They have exited in the round of 16 in nine of their last 11 appearances, including a 4-0 defeat to Atalanta last season.
Ascoli have never gone beyond the quarter-finals and were last eliminated from this competition by Hellas Verona in the round of 16 in 2023-24. Neither arrives with modern evidence of a deep run, but only one comes into Sunday having already won a competitive cup match this month.
Other opportunities in this market
- Match Result (Genoa Win): Settles strictly on Genoa leading after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, winning on 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, or any home victory without requiring Ascoli to score.
- Both Teams to Score (Yes): Requires both teams to score at least once in 90 minutes, settling as a win on 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, or higher draws and wins regardless of which team secures victory.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Settles if the combined goal count reaches three or more in normal time (e.g., 2-1, 3-0, 2-2), removing team preference but losing on 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, or 1-1.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Genoa to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Genoa vs Ascoli 3-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Genoa to win and both teams to score @ 11/5
Genoa enter this Coppa Italia tie with higher-tier status, having won five of their last eight meetings against Ascoli and boasting top-flight experience. However, Daniele De Rossi’s side finished 16th in Serie A last term and closed their league campaign with just one victory from six fixtures, scoring a modest three goals across that spell. Despite those struggles, Lorenzo Colombo leads the line after finishing as Genoa’s top scorer with seven goals before completing his permanent move from AC Milan, giving the hosts a defined focal point.
Ascoli present a genuine threat on the scoreline despite playing in the tier below. The visitors have found the net in 80% of their last 46 matches, averaging 1.76 goals per game compared to Genoa’s 1.15. Across their last six competitive outings, Ascoli have picked up four wins, scoring 12 times and already securing a 3-1 cup victory over Potenza. Furthermore, Ascoli average 61% possession and 11.63 shots per game with 40% shot accuracy, figures that comfortably exceed Genoa’s 49% possession and 33% shot accuracy.
Genoa’s recent defensive record provides clear context for an away goal, highlighted by a 10-1 pre-season loss to Bournemouth and a 61% scoring rate that demonstrates their own inconsistency. With Hamed Traore, Franz-Ethan Meichtry, Lorenzo Venturino, and Joi Nuredini dealing with fitness concerns, Genoa may lack complete balance. However, their historical record against Ascoli and superior individual level make a home victory reachable alongside an Ascoli reply.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Ascoli have found the net in 80% of their last 46 matches, averaging 1.76 goals per game.
- Genoa won only one of their final six league games last term, scoring three times across that span.
- Ascoli average 61% possession and 11.63 shots per match with a 40% on-target rate.
Risk Factor: A clean sheet for Genoa or failure to win inside 90 minutes would cause the main bet to lose.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Averaging 61% possession and 11.63 shots per match, scoring in 80% of their last 46 fixtures.
Won only one of their final six league matches, scored in only 61% of games, and exited last season's cup 4-0.
🎯 Pick 2: Genoa vs Ascoli 3-1 @ 10/1
Selecting a 3-1 outcome for Genoa aligns directly with the offensive strengths and defensive concessions established across both teams’ supplied records. Genoa require a strong showing after ending last season with three defeats from six matches, yet they still managed 47 goals across 41 fixtures. With leading scorer Lorenzo Colombo remaining at the club alongside the addition of Djibril Sow, the hosts hold enough individual capability to score three goals against second-tier opposition, mirroring the four goals Ascoli conceded aggregate-wise across their recent playoff final.
Ascoli’s offensive consistency provides concrete justification for their single goal in this scoreline. The visitors have scored in 80% of their past 46 matches and registered 12 goals in their last six competitive outings, including three in their recent Coppa Italia win against Potenza. Their 40% shot accuracy and 11.63 shots per game confirm they regularly work the goalkeeper. Genoa’s recent defensive vulnerability, evidenced by conceding four against Atalanta in last season’s cup run and suffering a heavy 10-1 friendly defeat to Bournemouth, shows they remain susceptible to conceding.
Historical cup encounters between these two clubs also offer precedent for goals, with both previous Coppa Italia ties producing 3-2 results. While exact scorelines carry inherent volatility and depend on game-state management, Ascoli’s away record of two wins, two draws, and two losses from six matches suggests they can remain competitive without avoiding defeat. A 3-1 margin accounts for Genoa’s divisional hierarchy alongside Ascoli’s proven scoring habit.
Risk Factor: Any scoreline other than 3-1 will cause the correct score bet to fail.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the "Genoa to win and both teams to score" bet require to win?
This combined market requires Genoa to win the match in normal time and Ascoli to score at least one goal. Scorelines like 2-1, 3-1, or 4-2 satisfy both conditions.
How does the Correct Score market settle in the Coppa Italia?
Correct Score markets settle based on the scoreline after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count toward settlement.
Why does Ascoli's scoring record support Both Teams to Score in this match?
Ascoli have scored in 80% of their last 46 matches and averaged 1.76 goals per game, establishing a clear pattern of scoring regularly across competitions.
What is Genoa's recent form heading into this Coppa Italia tie?
Genoa ended their Serie A season winless in five matches, winning just one of their final six fixtures while scoring three goals across that six-game sequence.
How do Genoa and Ascoli compare in possession and shot statistics?
Ascoli average 61% possession and 11.63 shots per match with 40% accuracy, whereas Genoa average 49% possession and 11.07 shots with 33% accuracy.
What happens to a 3-1 Correct Score bet if Genoa win 2-1 or 3-0?
The selection loses. Correct Score bets require the exact final scoreline, so any deviation—even by one goal—results in a lost bet.
What alternative betting options exist for bettors wanting lower risk?
Backing Genoa to win outright or selecting Over 2.5 Goals independently removes the combined dependency of needing both teams to score or predicting an exact score.
What historical trend exists between Genoa and Ascoli in the Coppa Italia?
Both previous Coppa Italia meetings between Genoa and Ascoli finished with 3-2 scorelines, producing one victory for each club.
