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Genoa crestGenoa
v
Ascoli crestAscoli

Coppa Italia | Sun 16 Aug, 17:30

Genoa v Ascoli Stats

Data last updated: Sun 27 Sep 2026, 02:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Genoa face Ascoli in Coppa Italia on Sun 16 Aug, 17:30. Ascoli average 61% possession and 11.63 shots per game, figures that suggest they are capable of making this tie far less passive than the difference in league level might imply.

BT4Y best bet

Genoa to win and both teams to score

  • At 11/5, Genoa to win and both teams to score implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 42%.
  • A 3-1 correct score aligns with Genoa’s ability to score multiple goals and Ascoli’s consistent scoring record.
  • Genoa need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Genoa on 0 and Ascoli on 3.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 42% for Genoa to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. Genoa need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Genoa on 0 and Ascoli on 3. A 3-1 correct score aligns with Genoa’s ability to score multiple goals and Ascoli’s consistent scoring record.

Model chance vs price42% model chance against roughly 31% implied
Positive
Genoa need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
A 3-1 correct score aligns with Genoa’s ability.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Genoa Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because a 3-1 correct score aligns with Genoa’s ability to score multiple goals and Ascoli’s consistent scoring record. Genoa need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Genoa on 0 and Ascoli on 3. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Genoa to win and both teams to score evidence

A 3-1 correct score aligns with Genoa’s ability to score multiple goals and Ascoli’s consistent scoring record.

Genoa need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Genoa on 0 and Ascoli on 3.

What To Watch In The Data

Genoa to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Genoa

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Genoa yet.

Ascoli

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
08 Aug 2026H Potenza3-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 82% vs implied 91% · edge -9 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
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Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Genoa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Genoa-
Avg goals scored
Ascoli3
Genoa-
Avg goals conceded
Ascoli1
Genoa-
BTTS rate
Ascoli100%
Genoa-
Over 2.5 goals
Ascoli100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 88% vs implied 80% · edge +8 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGenoa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 70% · edge -8.2 pts
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Genoa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Genoa to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Genoa Over 2.5
100%Ascoli Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
A 3-1 correct score aligns with Genoa’s ability to score multiple goals and Ascoli’s consistent scoring record.

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