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Genoa crestGenoa
v
Ascoli crestAscoli

Coppa Italia | Sun 16 Aug, 17:30

Genoa v Ascoli Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Genoa and Ascoli meet in the Coppa Italia with both sides eager to make an impact in this knockout fixture. Ascoli arrives in good recent form, having scored three goals in their last match and showing a strong tendency for high-scoring games. Genoa's data is limited but their attacking potential and home advantage suggest an open contest. The tactical setup points to an offensive approach from both teams, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals in a match where defensive solidity may be tested early on.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Ascoli has a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, indicating strong scoring form.
  • The last three head-to-head meetings averaged 2.67 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
  • Genoa's limited data suggests uncertainty but their offensive style at home can contribute to goal opportunities.
  • Coppa Italia knockout format often encourages attacking play to avoid draws and extra time.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 78% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied market chance of 55.6%, indicating strong value at the offered of 1.8. Ascoli's recent matches have consistently featured multiple goals, and the head-to-head average of 2.67 goals supports an open game. Although Genoa's data is thinner, the tactical context and knockout stakes suggest both teams will seek to score, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection. The level of 78% further reinforces the robustness of this pick.

Model Chance78%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance55.6%
Strong positive
Recent Form (Ascoli)100% Over 2.5 Goals rate
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Goals Average2.67 goals per match
Positive
Data Quality (Genoa)Limited home team data
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking Coppa Italia tie as Ascoli's recent goal-scoring form combines with Genoa's home offensive potential. The likelihood of three or more goals is high given the offensive tactics and historical goal averages, making Over 2.5 Goals a sensible choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“This Coppa Italia clash promises attacking intensity, with Ascoli's recent goal-scoring streak and Genoa's home offensive approach likely to produce multiple goals. The knockout nature encourages open play, making Over 2.5 Goals a strong tactical and statistical pick.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Ascoli has a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, indicating strong scoring form.

The last three head-to-head meetings averaged 2.67 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

Genoa's limited data suggests uncertainty but their offensive style at home can contribute to goal opportunities.

Coppa Italia knockout format often encourages attacking play to avoid draws and extra time.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last three head-to-head meetings averaged 2.67 goals, indicating a trend towards open, goal-rich encounters.
  • This recent sample suggests a tempo and tactical setup conducive to multiple goals, aligning well with the Over 2.5 Goals selection for this match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Genoa wins
1Draws
0Ascoli wins
06 May 2023Genoa v Ascoli2-1
11 Dec 2022Ascoli v Genoa0-0
03 Dec 2019Genoa v Ascoli3-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The three most recent meetings between Genoa and Ascoli have averaged 2.67 goals per game, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring matches. While the sample is small, it provides a meaningful context that supports expectations for multiple goals in this fixture.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Genoa

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Genoa yet.

Ascoli

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
08 Aug 2026H Potenza3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Ascoli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 39%
4.25
Check odds @ 4.25
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Genoa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.21
Check odds @ 1.21
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Ascoli's recent form is impressive with a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate and three goals scored in their last match, indicating strong offensive momentum. Genoa's form data is limited, but their home advantage and cup motivation suggest they will engage actively, supporting the expectation of a high-scoring game.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Genoa-
Avg goals scored
Ascoli3
Genoa-
Avg goals conceded
Ascoli1
Genoa-
BTTS rate
Ascoli100%
Genoa-
Over 2.5 goals
Ascoli100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Ascoli's recent matches have consistently featured three or more goals and both teams scoring, reflecting an attacking mindset. The head-to-head average of 2.67 goals per game further supports the expectation of multiple goals and potential BTTS, driven by open play and offensive tactics in this cup fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Ascoli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 39%
4.25
Check odds @ 4.25
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Genoa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.21
Check odds @ 1.21
Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 1.8 with an implied chance of 55.6%, while the model estimates a 78% probability. This significant suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making this a positive value bet without price sensitivity concerns.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Genoa0
Played
Ascoli1
Genoa0
Avg goals for
Ascoli3
Genoa0
Avg goals against
Ascoli1
Genoa0
Clean sheets
Ascoli0
Best odds for this sectionAscoli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.25
Check odds @ 4.25
Load more odds for this section
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Genoa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.21
Check odds @ 1.21
Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Season-long statistics show Ascoli's tendency towards matches with multiple goals, reinforcing the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals. Genoa's limited data restricts a full season analysis, but their attacking style and home fixtures generally contribute to open games with goal opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Genoa Over 2.5
100%Ascoli Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
The last three head-to-head meetings averaged 2.67 goals, indicating a trend towards open, goal-rich encounters. This recent sample suggests a tempo and tactical setup conducive to multiple goals, aligning well with the Over 2.5 Goals selection for this match.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Genoa v Ascoli prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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