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Can Palladino’s late-bloomers punish Bilbao’s goal drought in Bergamo? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Atalanta are superior in points, goals, and shot volume. Bilbao arrive having failed to score in three straight European matches and are suffering from a serious disciplinary crisis with consecutive red cards. Atalanta’s relentless second-half pressure should break down a blunt Bilbao side.
Read Rationale ▾
Bilbao’s goal drought is significant, while Atalanta average over 15 shots per game. Given Atalanta’s habit of scoring multiple goals in the second half and Bilbao’s inability to convert chances, a comfortable two-goal margin for the hosts is the most logical outcome.
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Atalanta BC vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions and Best Bets
Atalanta vs Athletic Bilbao — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Atalanta hold the edge with 13 points in the league phase compared to Bilbao’s 5, while the visitors arrive on a three-game European scoring drought.
A 2–0 win for the hosts is a high-probability outcome given Bilbao’s 270+ minute run without a Champions League goal.
Bilbao have received red cards in two consecutive games, while Atalanta have scored all 8 of their goals in the second half.
- Second-half surge: Atalanta’s eight Champions League goals in the league phase have all come after half-time, shaping this into a fixture where patience could be the real weapon.
- Bilbao’s blunt edge: Athletic Bilbao have scored just four goals across six Champions League matches, and they’ve failed to score in the last three, making every missed chance feel doubly costly.
- Red-card risk: Athletic Bilbao head into this game with a player sent off in consecutive matches, a dangerous trend against an Atalanta side that average 15.3 shots per game in the Champions League.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Champions League Match
Atalanta generate significantly more goalscoring opportunities on average than their Basque opponents.
Their aggressive tactical shape results in a high frequency of attempts on the opposition goal.
Bilbao struggle to match the hosts for sheer shot production in European competition.
Scoring Reliability: Total European Goals
The gap in finishing quality is visible through the total goals scored across the opening six matches.
Incredibly, all 8 of these goals have been recorded during the second half of play.
They enter this match having failed to find the net in their last three European fixtures.
Stadio di Bergamo is set for a proper European stress test. Atalanta come in hunting the kind of result that drags them closer to a top-eight spot, but they’re still feeling the sting of letting points slip late at Pisa — conceding after taking an 83rd-minute lead through Nikola Krstovic.
The mood around Athletic Bilbao is very different. Their European campaign has been blunt, low-scoring, and increasingly tense — one win in six in the Champions League, and no goals in the last three. Now they walk into Bergamo needing answers, facing a side that’s built a habit of finishing strong when the pressure climbs.
Team News & Lineups
Atalanta absences
- K. Sulemana (unknown injury)
- M. Bakker (cruciate ligament tear, out until 02.02.2026)
- B. Djimsiti (hip bruise)
Athletic Bilbao absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Atalanta possible starting XI
Carnesecchi; Kossounou, Hien, Kolasinac; Zappacosta, De Roon, Ederson, Bernasconi; De Ketelaere, Pasalic; Scamacca
Athletic Bilbao possible starting XI
Simon; Areso, Vivian, Paredes, Berchiche; Jauregizar, Ruiz De Galarreta; Berenguer, Sancet, N. Williams; Atalanta
What the lineups hint at
- Atalanta’s shape screams control and central punch: De Roon and Ederson to set the platform, then De Ketelaere and Pasalic hunting pockets behind Scamacca.
- Athletic’s XI reads like a team built to feed wide talent and arrive late: Berenguer, Sancet, and Nico Williams should carry the threat — but that final line matters when you’ve just gone three straight European matches without scoring.
- The big concern for Athletic is discipline: consecutive sendings-off is a habit that can blow up any game plan, especially away from home.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Atalanta | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League points (league phase) | 13 | 5 |
| Champions League goals (6 apps) | 8 | 4 |
| Shots per game (Champions League) | 15.3 | 11.8 |
| Possession % (Champions League) | 47.6% | 43.5% |
| Pass % (Champions League) | 83.1% | 77.7% |
| Red cards (all comps shown) | 1 | 7 |
Atalanta look like the sharper attacking machine in Europe: more points, more goals, and a much higher shot volume. Athletic’s numbers point to a side that can build phases but struggles to turn territory into goals — and if they lose their heads again, they’re inviting a long night.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Atalanta’s plan: absorb, then squeeze
Atalanta don’t need to win the ball back with chaos — their profile leans towards short passes, possession football, and controlling games in the opposition half. But the key detail is the timing: in this Champions League run, every Atalanta goal has arrived after half-time. That’s not a quirk — it’s a pattern.
Expect a first period where they probe without forcing. Zappacosta and Bernasconi can stretch the pitch, while De Ketelaere and Pasalic work the half-spaces and look to slip Scamacca in early. If it doesn’t click straight away, Atalanta won’t panic — they’re comfortable letting the game ripen.
Athletic’s plan: shots, crosses, and the Williams spark
Athletic’s style points to volume: they take a lot of shots and attempt crosses often, with a clear preference for getting the ball into areas where runners can attack. Nico Williams is the headline carrier — four league goals and two assists, plus a team-best rating — and Berenguer also brings output (two goals, two assists).
But there’s a problem they must solve on this pitch: they’ve been very weak at avoiding individual errors, and they’ve struggled with finishing scoring chances. When you’re travelling off the back of three straight scoreless European matches, you don’t just need chances — you need composure.
The mismatch: control vs discipline
This fixture could pivot on Athletic’s temperament. They’ve had a player sent off in consecutive games, and their overall disciplinary picture is heavy: 7 red cards and 62 yellows in the listed totals, alongside 394 fouls. Atalanta aren’t a side you want to gift free territory to, especially when they can turn sustained pressure into late goals.
If Athletic stay at eleven, they’ve got enough movement to make Atalanta uncomfortable — particularly if they can force Atalanta into the one thing they’re weak at: defending through ball attacks. But if Athletic lose structure through rash tackles or a moment of madness, the second half becomes Atalanta’s playground.
Key Moments to Watch
- The post-interval swing: Atalanta’s Champions League goals have all come after the break — if it’s level late on, that trend becomes a psychological edge.
- Wide deliveries and second balls: Athletic lean on crosses and shot volume; Atalanta must defend the box and clear their lines cleanly.
- Discipline under pressure: Athletic’s recent red-card pattern is the alarm bell. One reckless moment can turn a tough away trip into survival mode.
- Who blinks first in the final third: Atalanta generate more shots in Europe; Athletic must be ruthless with fewer clear openings.
What could go wrong?
Atalanta’s risk is sleepwalking through the early stages and leaving themselves too much to do. They’ve already felt what a late twist can do — Pisa punished them after that 83rd-minute lead. For Athletic, the danger is obvious: if the goal drought continues and frustration rises, discipline can snap — and in Bergamo, that’s usually the beginning of the end.
Best Bet for Atalanta vs Athletic Bilbao
Can Bilbao’s misfiring attack survive the late pressure in Bergamo?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | Ata: 8 goals in 6; Bil: 4 goals in 6 | Back Atalanta Win |
| Efficiency | Ata: 15.3 shots/gm; Bil: 0 goals in 3 | Under 1.5 Away Goals |
| Timing | Ata: 100% goals in 2nd Half | Ata 2nd Half Win |
| Discipline | Bil: Red card in last 2 matches | Atalanta Win |
Best Bet for Atalanta vs Athletic Bilbao
Atalanta to Win
Stadio di Bergamo is a fortress where clinical patience meets high-volume attacking. Atalanta enter this fixture as the clear favorite, supported by a statistical profile that dwarfs Athletic Bilbao’s current European output. While the visitors struggle for any form of offensive identity, the Italian side has established itself as a second-half powerhouse.
Athletic Bilbao are currently enduring a severe goal drought. They have failed to find the back of the net in their last three Champions League matches. This lack of composure in the final third is compounded by a high shot volume of 11.8 per game that yields almost zero results. They are a side that creates territory but lacks the ruthlessness required to win away in Europe.
Atalanta’s tactical superiority is evident in their shot production, averaging 15.3 shots per game. More importantly, they demonstrate incredible stamina and late-game focus. Every single one of their eight Champions League goals this season has been scored in the second half. This means even if Bilbao manage to frustrate them early, the physical and tactical squeeze from Atalanta usually breaks the opposition after the hour mark.
The disciplinary trend for the Spanish side is the final red flag. With a player sent off in consecutive matches and 7 red cards across all competitions, Bilbao are prone to self-destruction under pressure. Against an Atalanta side that thrives on possession and short-passing control, any loss of numerical parity or defensive structure will lead to a home victory.
What could go wrong?
Atalanta’s reliance on second-half scoring is a double-edged sword. If they fail to capitalize on their high shot volume and allow Bilbao to grow in confidence, a scoreless draw is possible. Additionally, Bilbao’s Nico Williams possesses individual quality that can punish Atalanta on the counter-attack if the hosts overcommit.
Correct Score Lean
Atalanta 2-0 Athletic Bilbao
The logic for a 2-0 victory sits with Bilbao’s complete lack of goal-scoring form. Having gone three European games without a goal, it is unlikely they will breach an Atalanta defense that controls 47.6% of the ball. Atalanta average 1.33 goals per game in the Champions League, and given their propensity for late strikes, a 2-0 result reflects their ability to pull away once Bilbao tire or lose discipline late in the second half.
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