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The American Express is a unique test. Played across three distinct courses—the Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club—it requires players to go incredibly low. With amateurs in tow for the first 54 holes, the course setups are generally generous, leaving nowhere to hide for those who cannot make birdies in bunches. To win here, you need precision off the tee and a hot putter.
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Griffin enters 2026 in sharp ball-striking form, ranking 6th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 16th in Driving Accuracy. In a multi-course birdie-fest where finding fairways is paramount to attacking pins, his precision and strong scrambling (8th) make him a standout value play at 18/1 against the field.
Why Ben Griffin is the Man to Beat
The betting market is understandably tight with Scottie Scheffler heading the list, but the value lies slightly further down the board. Ben Griffin at 18/1 represents the smartest play for punters looking for form and course suitability.
This tournament is historically a “putting contest,” but you cannot putt for birdie if you are hacking out of the desert scrub. This is where Griffin’s 2026 numbers jump off the page. He is currently ranked 6th on Tour for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. This is not just about distance; it is about placing the ball in the right spots to attack flagsticks.
Precision Over Power
The three courses in rotation this week do not demand overwhelming power, but they punish inaccuracy. Griffin is finding fairways with ruthless consistency, boasting a Driving Accuracy of 69.64%, which ranks him 16th on Tour. By keeping the ball in play, he maximizes his opportunities to score.
Ben Griffin: 2026 Key Stats
- SG: Total Rank: 19th
- SG: Off The Tee: 6th
- Driving Accuracy: 16th (69.64%)
- Greens in Regulation: 32nd (72.22%)
- Scrambling Rank: 8th (75.00%)
When he does miss a green, he is incredibly tidy. He currently ranks 8th in Scrambling, saving par 75% of the time. In an event where bogeys are momentum killers, this resilience is vital.
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The Course Challenge: A Birdie-Fest
The format sees players tackle the Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club, and the Pete Dye Stadium Course over the first three days. The Stadium Course, which hosts the final round, is the toughest of the trio.
Recent winning scores have consistently breached the -23 mark. Last year, Sepp Straka won at -25. This means players must average better than six under par per round. Griffin’s Greens in Regulation percentage of 72.22% (32nd) ensures he gives himself the volume of putts needed to reach these lofty totals.
The Verdict
While names like Scottie Scheffler (3/1) and Patrick Cantlay (28/1) always command respect, Griffin’s statistical profile for the 2026 season is perfectly aligned with what is required in the California desert. He is driving the ball beautifully and scrambling well when required. At 18/1, he offers significant upside.
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