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RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions The final Saturday night Bundesliga clash of the year has been dressed up perfectly. RB Leipzig welcome Bayer Leverkusen to the Red Bull Arena in a fixture that lands squarely in the middle of the top-four conversation, with both clubs intent on reaching the winter break in the Champions League places. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is driven by the high match goal averages of both teams, with Leipzig at 3.21 and Leverkusen at 3.5 per game. Leipzig is particularly lethal at home, having scored 18 goals in six matches (3.0 per game). Conversely, Leverkusen concedes 2.17 goals per game on the road, suggesting they will struggle to contain Leipzig’s 16.14 shots per match. With both teams seeking a top-four statement and Leverkusen boasting a 15% shot conversion rate, the ingredients are present for a game that comfortably clears the 2.5 goal threshold.
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This scoreline reflects Leipzig's home dominance and Leverkusen's defensive frailties away from home. Leipzig averages 3.0 goals at home and has won nine games this season, making them favorites at the Red Bull Arena. However, Leverkusen’s scoring average of 2.14 goals per match and high shot conversion rate suggest they are likely to find a consolation goal. Given that Leverkusen concedes over two goals per away game, a 2-1 result provides a realistic middle ground between Leipzig’s defensive strength and the high match goal averages of both clubs.
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RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions and Best Bets
RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen — bet365 Market Snapshot
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- Leipzig’s home dominance sets the tone: RB Leipzig have won all six of their Bundesliga home matches, scoring 18 goals and conceding just three, underlining how difficult they have been to unsettle in Leipzig.
- Leverkusen bring goals wherever they go: Bayer Leverkusen’s league matches average 3.5 goals, rising to 4.17 away from home, highlighting a team whose attacking intent often opens games up.
- Different routes to pressure: Leipzig average 16.14 shots per match compared to Leverkusen’s 14.43, showing Leipzig’s reliance on volume and territory while Leverkusen lean more on efficiency.
Match Tempo: Average Goals per League Game
Both sides have been involved in lively Bundesliga matches this season, and the match-goals averages offer a quick snapshot of the tempo they’ve carried into December.
Leipzig games have averaged 3.21 goals, a sign that their matches often swing quickly between attacking spells and defensive tests.
Leverkusen matches average 3.5 goals, reflecting a side that tends to keep the scoreboard involved for both teams.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded per Match
A simple way to frame defensive control is how often teams allow goals across the season, especially when game states start to stretch late on.
Leipzig have conceded 1.14 goals per match, a respectable baseline that has helped them stay near the top of the table.
Leverkusen’s 1.36 conceded per match points to a side that can be exposed at times, particularly when matches open up.
Attacking Pressure: Shots per Match
Shot volume doesn’t guarantee goals, but it does hint at who spends longer in dangerous areas and who can sustain pressure over 90 minutes.
Leipzig average 16.14 shots per match, suggesting they can keep opponents pinned back for extended spells, especially at home.
Leverkusen’s 14.43 shots per match shows they remain front-foot, even if they create chances with slightly fewer attempts than Leipzig.
Can RB Leipzig’s perfect home record withstand Bayer Leverkusen’s attacking ambition?
The table gives this one immediate edge. Leipzig arrive second after 14 matches on 29 points, while Leverkusen sit fourth on 26. The margins are tight enough that this feels less like a routine league game and more like a statement opportunity: for Leipzig to reinforce their position near the summit, and for Leverkusen to show they belong in the same breath as the league’s front-runners.
There is also a shared theme running through both seasons so far: goals. Leipzig’s league matches average 3.21 goals, while Leverkusen’s average is even higher at 3.5. Neither side has built their campaign on safety-first football, and both have been prepared to accept risk in pursuit of control and attacking output. That alone hints at a lively contest, even before the team news comes into view.
Set against the backdrop of the Red Bull Arena on a December night, this is the kind of Bundesliga fixture that tends to carry momentum swings. Leipzig have been flawless at home in the league so far, while Leverkusen’s away record shows a side comfortable operating on the road but not immune to exposure. With similar objectives and contrasting strengths, this has all the ingredients of a high-tempo, tactically revealing encounter to close out the year.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
RB Leipzig’s possible starting lineup reads: Gulacsi; Nedeljkovic, Orban, Lukeba, Raum; Schlager, Seiwald, Baumgartner; Maksimovic, Harder, Gomis.
That points towards a back four with Raum offering width from left-back and Orban anchoring the defence centrally. In midfield, Schlager and Seiwald look set to provide the base, with Baumgartner given licence to operate higher between the lines. Ahead of them, Maksimovic and Gomis flank Harder, suggesting a front three built on movement rather than a fixed focal point.
Bayer Leverkusen’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Flekken; Andrich, Bade, Tape; Arthur, Fernandez, Tillman, Belocian; Hofmann, Terrier; Kofane.
This setup hints at a back three with Andrich, Bade and Tape, flanked by Arthur and Belocian as wing-backs. Fernandez and Tillman form the central midfield pairing, while Hofmann and Terrier operate behind Kofane. It is a shape that naturally encourages width and overloads in the half-spaces, with the wing-backs asked to stretch Leipzig’s defensive line horizontally.
On paper, the contrast is clear. Leipzig appear set up to play with a back four and three attackers across the front, while Leverkusen look ready to use wing-backs and a narrow attacking trio behind a central striker. That difference in structure is likely to define where the game is won and lost.
How the Match Could Be Played
The early pattern may hinge on Leipzig’s ability to impose their home rhythm. Their season numbers suggest a side comfortable pushing opponents back, particularly in Leipzig, where they have scored 18 goals in six league matches and conceded just three. With Raum advancing from left-back and Baumgartner drifting into pockets, Leipzig can look to overload Leverkusen’s right side and force the wing-back into defensive decisions early.
Leverkusen’s back three, though, is designed to absorb that kind of pressure. With Andrich stepping out and Fernandez offering support from midfield, they can look to crowd the central zones and encourage Leipzig wide, where crosses and second balls become the primary threat rather than direct runs through the middle.
In possession, Leverkusen’s game should revolve around patience and circulation. Their average possession sits at 60%, the highest of the two sides, and that control allows players like Hofmann and Terrier to receive between Leipzig’s midfield and defence. If those two can draw Leipzig’s centre-backs forward, space opens for Kofane to attack the channels or for late arrivals from Tillman.
Transitions are likely to be sharp. Leipzig average 16.14 shots per match, which speaks to how quickly they turn recoveries into attempts on goal. That aggressiveness can stretch a back three, especially if Raum and Nedeljkovic push high and pin the wing-backs. The risk, of course, is what happens when those attacks break down. Leverkusen’s away matches average 4.17 goals, reflecting how open their games can become once space appears.
Pressing triggers could also play a decisive role. Leipzig’s front three are well positioned to jump on Leverkusen’s wide centre-backs, particularly if the first pass out is slow. Conversely, Leverkusen may target Leipzig’s build-up through Gulacsi and the centre-backs, using Kofane to screen passes into midfield and force longer balls that bypass Schlager and Seiwald.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Leipzig’s league position is underpinned by consistency. They have won nine of their 14 matches, scoring 29 goals and conceding 16, which translates to 2.07 goals scored per match and 1.14 conceded. That balance matters here because it shows a side capable of sustaining pressure without becoming reckless, particularly at home where they concede just 0.5 goals per match.
Leverkusen’s profile is slightly different. They score more freely, averaging 2.14 goals per match, but concede more as well at 1.36. Their matches average 3.5 goals, higher than Leipzig’s, suggesting a team more willing to trade chances if it means asserting their attacking identity. Away from home, that openness increases, with 2.17 goals conceded per match on their travels.
Shot data reinforces the contrast. Leipzig take an average of 16.14 shots per match, while Leverkusen take 14.43. Leipzig’s shot conversion rate is 13%, compared to Leverkusen’s 15%, hinting that Leverkusen are slightly more efficient with fewer attempts, while Leipzig rely on volume and sustained pressure to wear teams down.
Both sides also show a tendency towards games where goals arrive at both ends. Leipzig’s matches see both teams score in 43% of cases, while Leverkusen’s figure rises to 57%. That doesn’t dictate the flow of this match, but it does underline how neither side has made a habit of shutting games down completely once they gain an advantage.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One key moment will be the battle on Leipzig’s left side. Raum’s forward runs are a major source of width, but they also leave space behind. If Hofmann can drift into that channel and combine with Arthur, Leverkusen may find opportunities to isolate Lukeba and pull Orban across.
Another will be how Leipzig manage Baumgartner between the lines. He leads the team for both goals and assists with six of each, and his ability to arrive late into the box gives Leipzig an extra layer beyond their front three. If Leverkusen’s midfield pairing lose track of him, Leipzig’s shot volume can quickly turn into high-quality chances.
Set-piece situations could also carry weight simply because of how often both sides commit fouls. Leipzig are awarded 10.57 free kicks per match, while Leverkusen average 11.43. In a tight game, repeated restarts in advanced areas can shift territory and momentum, even without a direct effort on goal.
What could go wrong with this read? Games between top-four contenders often ignore tidy tactical logic. An early goal can flip the entire structure, forcing one side to abandon control in favour of urgency. With both teams comfortable in open matches, a chaotic spell could undo even the best-laid plans.
Best Bet for RB Leipzig vs Leverkusen
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Over 2.5 Goals
Rationale
The primary justification for a high-scoring encounter lies in the consistent attacking philosophies and defensive vulnerabilities displayed by both clubs this season. RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen have both prioritized offensive output, resulting in high match goal averages that sit well above the league norm. Leipzig’s league fixtures average 3.21 goals per match, while Leverkusen’s contests are even more expansive, averaging 3.5 goals. This statistical trend is not a coincidence but a reflection of their tactical setups; Leipzig averages over 16 shots per match, and Leverkusen follows closely with over 14.
Leipzig has been particularly potent at home, scoring 18 goals in just six matches at the Red Bull Arena—an average of 3.0 goals per home game. While their home defensive record is strong, they face a Leverkusen side that averages 2.14 goals per match and possesses a slightly higher shot conversion rate of 15%. Leverkusen’s defensive profile away from home is also a significant factor; they concede an average of 2.17 goals on their travels. This suggests that while Leverkusen has the quality to find the net against a sturdy Leipzig defense, they lack the structural discipline on the road to prevent a high-volume attacking side from scoring multiple times.
Furthermore, both teams exhibit a tendency for games to open up significantly as they progress. Leverkusen’s matches see both teams score in 57% of cases, and the high-tempo pressing style employed by Leipzig often creates transitional moments that lead to rapid goal-scoring opportunities. With both teams competing for a spot in the top four and neither side showing an inclination to settle for a low-scoring draw, the tactical mirror of Leverkusen’s wing-backs versus Leipzig’s attacking front three is likely to leave gaps that players like Baumgartner (6 goals, 6 assists) and Leverkusen’s Terrier can exploit. Given the evidence of consistent shot volume and high goals-per-game averages, the match is statistically geared toward exceeding a two-goal total.
What could go wrong The main risk to this prediction is the potential for a “tactical stalemate” due to the high stakes of a top-four battle. If both managers prioritize defensive shape to avoid a loss before the winter break, the game could become cagey. Additionally, RB Leipzig’s impressive record of conceding just 0.5 goals per match at home could frustrate Leverkusen’s attack, potentially leading to a lower scoreline if the visitors fail to break through.
Correct score lean
2-1
Rationale
A 2-1 victory for RB Leipzig is the most balanced outcome based on the provided metrics. Leipzig is flawless at the Red Bull Arena this season and scores an average of 3.0 goals per home game, while conceding only 0.5. However, Leverkusen averages over two goals per match and is efficient with a 15% conversion rate, making it highly probable they will breach the Leipzig defense at least once. Since Leverkusen concedes 2.17 goals per game on the road, Leipzig’s volume of 16.14 shots per match should logically translate into at least two goals, aligning with their home dominance.
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