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Friday night football returns to the Bundesliga with a classic fixture as Borussia Dortmund welcome Borussia Mönchengladbach to Signal Iduna Park. Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Dortmund v Borussia Monchengladbach, which has been placed with William Hill:
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Why this pick
Windass is Wrexham's most frequent shooter (32 shots) and is performing in the 92nd percentile for shot attempts. He is clinical, scoring 6 goals from an xG of 3.39, and poses a threat from both inside and outside the box against a leaky Sheffield United defence.
Why this pick
With Wrexham missing key defenders like Cacace and Kabore, the 36-year-old McClean faces a heavy workload on the left flank. He has committed 16 fouls and made 30 tackles this season. Facing a possession-heavy Sheffield United (52.3%), he is a prime candidate for a tactical foul.
Why this pick
Sheffield United are a corner machine, having won 170 corners this season due to their sustained pressure. Combined with Wrexham’s direct aerial style (Moore wins 7.3 aerials/game) and both teams taking over 11 shots per game, the game script points to plenty of set-piece opportunities.
This 30/1 selection capitalizes on a high-scoring, chaotic matchup history. We back Wrexham’s main shooting threat in Windass, anticipate defensive discipline issues for an overworked McClean, and rely on Sheffield United’s massive corner generation (170 won) to drive the set-piece count high.
The Yellow Wall is set for a proper “mood piece” this Friday as third-placed Dortmund host 11th-placed Mönchengladbach. This is a fixture that rarely disappoints in terms of entertainment, but the stakes are notably different for both sides. Nuri Şahin’s Dortmund are looking to cement their Champions League spots, relying on a home record that has seen them remain unbeaten at Signal Iduna Park this season.
Conversely, Gerardo Seoane’s Gladbach are trying to find consistency after a mixed campaign of four wins and six losses. With Dortmund conceding in four of their last five matches and Gladbach scoring in 16 of their last 18 away trips, the data suggests a contest defined by attacking transitions rather than defensive discipline.
Dortmund v Borussia Monchengladbach Bet Builder Tip
The Stealth Threat
Selection: Shuto Machino To Score
While much of the pre-match focus naturally gravitates towards Gladbach’s top scorer Haris Tabakovic—who has seven league goals to his name—the value lies in the man operating in his shadow. Shuto Machino is expected to start in a supporting role behind the main striker, and the underlying numbers suggest he is a prime candidate to find the net in a game that promises open spaces.
Machino’s statistical profile for the 2025/2026 season highlights a player who is ruthlessly efficient when he gets into goalscoring positions. Although he has only netted two Bundesliga goals so far, his shot map reveals a player who knows exactly where to be. Of his 12 recorded shots this season, a staggering 11 have come from inside the box. This is not a midfielder taking hopeful punts from range; this is a secondary striker getting into the danger zone. His shot accuracy is equally impressive, with 50% of his attempts (6 out of 12) finding the target.
What makes Machino particularly dangerous in this specific tactical matchup is Dortmund’s defensive setup. The hosts are likely to deploy a back three of Süle, Can, and Schlotterbeck. The match analysis suggests that Dortmund’s wing-backs, Ryerson and Svensson, will push high to dominate territory. This naturally leaves pockets of space in the channels—the “spaces just inside the wing-backs”—which is exactly where Machino operates.
Furthermore, Machino’s finishing adds significant value to his chances. His Expected Goals (xG) stands at 1.01, yet his Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) is nearly double that at 2.01. This metric indicates that when Machino strikes the ball, he significantly increases the quality of the chance through superior placement. He is overperforming his baseline xG because he is a high-quality finisher. Against a Dortmund defence that has conceded in 80% of their last five games and kept clean sheets in only half their league matches, Machino will get chances. With the Dortmund defence likely preoccupied with the physical presence of Tabakovic, Machino is the ideal candidate to exploit the cut-backs and second balls inside the area.
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The Tactical Mismatch
Selection: Emre Can To Be Carded
The decision to back Emre Can for a booking is rooted firmly in the tactical role he is expected to play and the specific nature of the opposition’s threat. Listed as a starter in the centre of a back three, Can will be the linchpin of the Dortmund defence. However, his lack of consistent minutes this season—having started only three Bundesliga matches and played just 269 minutes—could be a decisive factor against a sharp counter-attacking unit.
Gladbach’s attacking profile is defined by pace and directness in transition. The analysis notes that Gladbach will look to “break with purpose” using supporting attackers like Giovanni Reyna and Shuto Machino to connect play quickly. If Dortmund’s wing-backs are caught high up the pitch, Can will be forced to cover large lateral spaces to shut down these transitions. This is a high-risk scenario for a centre-back, particularly one who hasn’t been a regular fixture in the starting XI.
While Can’s disciplinary record this season is clean (zero yellow cards in limited minutes), the game state dictates that he will be under immense pressure. He faces a Gladbach side that has scored 10 goals in six away games, proving they can hurt teams on the break. The visitors’ probable lineup includes agile, technical dribblers who draw fouls. Can has committed two fouls in his limited playing time, but in a full 90-minute shift against a “higher-event” team like Gladbach, his exposure to 1v1 situations in transition increases dramatically. We are backing the game situation—a high defensive line vs. fast breaks—to force Can into a cynical challenge to stop a promising attack.
End-to-End Action
Selection: Each Team Over 3 Corners
This selection is supported by the projected “Match Tempo” and the offensive volume of both sides. Dortmund are a high-volume attacking side, averaging 12 shots per match. When you take 12 shots a game and operate with 52% possession, you naturally force deflections, blocks, and goalkeeper saves that result in corner kicks. Their tactical reliance on wing-backs Ryerson and Svensson to provide width means plenty of crosses coming into the box, another common source of corners.
On the other side, Gladbach are not a team that sits back passively. Their matches average 2.86 goals, described as having a “higher-event profile.” Even away from home, they have scored in 16 of their last 18 trips. To score that consistently on the road, they have to attack the final third regularly. The analysis highlights that Gladbach will look to win the ball and break quickly. Transitions that result in shots or crosses cleared by a retreating defence are the primary driver for corners for an away side.
With Dortmund pushing for a win to maintain their 3rd place spot and Gladbach possessing a “goals-for” record that invites momentum shifts, the game is unlikely to be played in the middle third. It will swing from box to box. Dortmund’s pressure will generate their corner count, while Gladbach’s commitment to counter-attacking into the space behind Dortmund’s wing-backs ensures they will have their own spells of pressure near the corner flag.
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