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Can Bayer Leverkusen secure their place in the semi-finals against a struggling St Pauli side? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Leverkusen’s superior technical stats, including higher possession and shots, suggest they will dominate territory. St Pauli’s vulnerability to wide attacks should lead to high corner volume for the hosts, while St Pauli’s defensive pressure often results in more bookings during transition phases.
Read Rationale ▾
Leverkusen have kept two clean sheets in their last three matches while scoring consistently. St Pauli average under one goal per game in the league, making a controlled 2-0 victory for the home side highly plausible given the gulf in shot volume.
Leverkusen host St Pauli at BayArena with a semi-final spot on the line. Form, tactics, key battles, team news and lineups.
- Cup Habit: Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in seven of their last eight DFB-Pokal games and have scored at least once in eight straight cup matches.
- Form Contrast: Leverkusen arrive on three consecutive wins, scoring six and conceding one, with two clean sheets in that run to sharpen the edge.
- Control vs Chaos: Leverkusen average 13.9 shots and 59.3% possession in the Bundesliga; St Pauli sit at 10.4 shots and 46.3% possession, a gulf in territory and volume.
Bayer Leverkusen vs St Pauli — Market Snapshot
Key statistical patterns and sample bet365 odds for the DFB-Pokal Quarter-Final.
Kasper Hjulmand’s side enter with three straight wins. St Pauli are winless in six, including three defeats in that span.
Leverkusen average 13.9 shots and nearly 60% possession. St Pauli struggle defending attacks down the wings and through balls.
Leverkusen have scored 38 goals in 19 apps. St Pauli’s scoring rate is under one per game (18 in 20 apps).
Bayer Leverkusen have registered 10 clean sheets across 30 matches in all competitions.
Match Preview
This is knockout football with a proper prize: a place in the DFB-Pokal semi-final. Under the BayArena lights at 19:45, sixth-placed Bayer Leverkusen welcome 17th-placed St Pauli in an all-Bundesliga quarter-final that screams “pressure test”.
Leverkusen’s mood is buoyant. Kasper Hjulmand’s side just won 3-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt and have stacked three straight victories, looking sharper and more ruthless in both boxes. St Pauli, led by Alexander Blessin, arrive still searching for traction — winless in their last six across all competitions (three draws, three defeats), and coming off a 2-1 loss at Augsburg.
The stakes are simple: survive tonight, and the season suddenly looks different.
Control and Territory: Average Possession
Leverkusen’s tactical setup focuses on high ball retention compared to St Pauli’s more direct approach.
Leverkusen use short passing and possession to pin opponents back.
St Pauli often spend long periods defending without the ball.
Attacking Intensity: Shots Per Game
They rely on frequent attempts on goal through wing attacks and through balls.
St Pauli create fewer chances and focus on right-sided transitions.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen (Manager: Kasper Hjulmand)
- Jarell Quansah – ill
- Eliesse Ben Seghir – ankle injury
- Nathan Tella – foot injury
- Ibrahim Maza – knee problems
St Pauli (Manager: Alexander Blessin)
- No absences listed.
Probable Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1)
Mark Flekken; Arthur, Edmond Tapsoba, Loïc Badé; Alejandro Grimaldo, Aleix García, Robert Andrich, Jonas Hofmann; Malik Tillman, Ernest Poku; Patrik Schick.
St Pauli (3-4-1-2)
Nikola Vasilj; Adam Dzwigala, Eric Smith, Hauke Wahl; Arkadiusz Pyrka, James Sands, Joel Chima Fujita, Louis Oppie; Danel Sinani; Andréas Hountondji, Mathias Pereira Lage.
What it means: Leverkusen’s missing names bite in key zones. Quansah and Maza are both prominent in the squad picture, and losing them can disrupt the balance between build-up security and the punch behind Schick. St Pauli’s “consistent first eleven” profile points to fewer surprises — but it also risks predictability if Leverkusen pin them back early.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | St Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 17th |
| Bundesliga goals | 38 (19 apps) | 18 (20 apps) |
| Shots per game (Bundesliga) | 13.9 | 10.4 |
| Possession (Bundesliga) | 59.3% | 46.3% |
| Pass accuracy (Bundesliga) | 88.6% | 79.1% |
| Clean sheets (all comps listed) | 10 (30 games) | 4 (23 games) |
Leverkusen’s numbers paint a clear picture: more ball, more shots, more goals. St Pauli’s profile suggests spells without the ball and a need to make their moments count — which is awkward when their finishing is a listed weakness. If this follows the stats, Leverkusen spend long stretches in St Pauli territory, forcing defending decisions every minute rather than every phase.
Tactical Battle
Leverkusen’s width vs St Pauli’s sore spot
Leverkusen’s strengths lean into the flanks: attacking down the wings and counter attacks are marked strong, with finishing scoring chances also high. That combination is nasty in a cup tie because it doesn’t rely on one rhythm. They can build patiently with possession football and short passes, then snap into something direct when the spaces appear.
St Pauli’s weaknesses sit right where Leverkusen like to live. They are very weak at defending against attacks down the wings, and also very weak against through ball attacks. That’s a double whammy against a side that likes to attempt through balls often and can pull defences side-to-side before sliding runners through the inside channels.
Expect Grimaldo to be a constant problem. He leads Leverkusen for both goals (5) and assists (5) in the Bundesliga squad list, and his output matches the tactical setup: pressure wide, then punish with the final action. If St Pauli shuffle across too late, Leverkusen’s wide pressure becomes box entries. If St Pauli overreact, those gaps between wing-back and centre-back become inviting lanes for runners off Tillman and Poku, with Schick ready to finish.
St Pauli’s right-sided threat and the transition fight
Blessin’s side aren’t just here to suffer. Their strengths include creating chances using through balls, coming back from losing positions, and stealing the ball from the opposition. Their style says attacking down the right, play with width, and an offside trap.
That points to a clear route: survive pressure, win it, and go early into the channels. And Leverkusen do have a vulnerability that matters in knockout football: defending counter attacks is listed weak, as is stopping opponents from creating chances. If Leverkusen push their wing-backs high and lose the ball in bad areas, St Pauli can try to turn one pass into a chance.
The real tension is whether St Pauli can get enough of the ball to play those through balls. Their Bundesliga averages — 46.3% possession and 79.1% pass accuracy — suggest they may spend long periods defending. That makes their choice of moments critical: press at the wrong time and Leverkusen’s clean circulation turns it into wave-after-wave. Press at the right time and a single turnover can flip the mood inside BayArena.
The Schick question: volume or quality?
Leverkusen have a clear reference point up top: Schick leads their Bundesliga scoring with 6. The key is how he’s fed. Leverkusen also “take long shots”, which can either keep St Pauli honest or waste promising attacks if taken too early. Against a team that defend set pieces well and try to hold a line with the offside trap, patience matters — work the angles, drag defenders, then hit with a through ball or a wing switch.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece swing: Both teams are tagged strong at shooting from direct free kicks, while St Pauli are strong at defending set pieces. That clash can decide momentum, especially if open-play chances are limited early.
- Corners and territory: Leverkusen have 146 corners across the listed matches (30 played), St Pauli 106 (23 played). If this turns into sustained pressure, dead-ball volume ramps up fast.
- Discipline under pressure: Leverkusen show 62 yellow cards and 3 reds; St Pauli have 38 yellows and 1 red. A frantic five-minute spell can change the tie, especially if transitions start flying.
- The first-goal window: Average first-goal timing sits around 43’ for Leverkusen and 44’ for St Pauli in the event-time snapshot. If it stays level deep into the first half, tension rises — and decision-making gets louder than tactics.
What Could Go Wrong?
Leverkusen’s listed weaknesses — protecting the lead and defending counter attacks — are exactly the type that can turn a “comfortable” night into chaos. If they go in front and get sloppy with rest defence, St Pauli have the tools to nick momentum: through balls, wide breaks, and the belief that they can fight back from losing positions.
Market Explainer
Match Outcomes & Combined Events
The Match Result (1X2) market is the fundamental way to back a home win, a draw, or an away win after 90 minutes. For Pick 1, this is combined with corner and card volume to create a “Match Multi”. This means all three specific events must occur: a Leverkusen victory, them winning the most corners, and St Pauli receiving the most cards.
Trade-off: Cautious readers might look at Double Chance markets to cover two outcomes, though this reduces the price. Higher-risk approaches involve “OddsOnThat” selections for larger potential returns but higher volatility.
Correct Score
Correct Score betting requires predicting the exact final scoreline at the end of regular time. It is a precise market where the probability is lower than a simple match result, but the prices are significantly higher to reflect that difficulty.
Trade-off: Higher-risk markets like this carry the danger of late goals ruining a prediction. Cautious alternatives include Goals Range markets, which provide a wider margin for error than an exact scoreline.
Leverkusen Win, Most Corners & St Pauli Most Cards (4/1)
Bayer Leverkusen enter this quarter-final in superior form, having won three consecutive matches. Their tactical dominance is evident in their 59.3% average possession and high volume of 13.9 shots per league game. St Pauli, meanwhile, are winless in their last six fixtures and struggle with a pass accuracy of just 79.1%, which often forces them into long periods of defending. This territorial imbalance heavily supports a home win.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Leverkusen have won 146 corners this season, significantly outperforming St Pauli’s 106.
- St Pauli are very weak at defending attacks down the wings, which is exactly where Leverkusen focus their offensive pressure.
- Leverkusen have received 62 yellow cards and 3 reds this season, while St Pauli have 38 yellows and 1 red.
With Alejandro Grimaldo leading the team in both goals and assists, Leverkusen force defenders into wide areas, resulting in high corner counts. St Pauli’s weakness against wing attacks and through balls means they are frequently caught out of position, leading to defensive pressure during transition phases.
Risk Factor: Leverkusen have a noted weakness in defending counter-attacks, which could allow St Pauli to snatch a goal against the run of play.
Leverkusen 2-0 St Pauli (6/1)
A controlled 2-0 victory for the home side is a plausible outcome based on the defensive and offensive contrasts. Leverkusen have kept 10 clean sheets across 30 games this season and have tightened their defence recently, conceding only once during their current three-game winning streak. This resilience makes it difficult for a St Pauli attack that has managed only 18 goals in 20 Bundesliga appearances.
Why 2-0? Leverkusen possess the quality to secure a multi-goal margin while their defensive stability protects the clean sheet.
Risk Factor: Leverkusen sometimes struggle with protecting a lead, and any lapse in concentration could result in a late goal.
Football Betting Q&A
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