Lucky 15 Tips For Today

Kasino Des Mottes looks a bright prospect for Joe Tizzard and is expected to step forward markedly from a very respectable fifth in a warm novice at Cheltenham. That rules debut revealed raw ability and a willing attitude, despite racing off the bridle against seasoned rivals. With that educational run in the bank, he now meets a less exacting field at a track that should play to his neat, low, efficient jumping. His Irish point win showcased stamina and commitment over a trip, and a more patient ride here can help him settle and travel.

The yard has been sending out fit, forward novices, and this looks a deliberate piece of placement. Kempton’s layout rewards rhythm; he shaped as though an extra gear is available once he finds a smooth tempo. If the forecast ease remains, his proven capacity to handle a test will be a plus. Granting normal improvement second time out, he sets a solid standard and can assert late.

Always A Reason hinted strongly that a corner had been turned on handicap debut at Hexham. After three quiet qualifying efforts in novice company, the switch to handicaps unlocked improvement: he travelled with greater purpose and found for pressure, a notable change from initial runs when the penny had yet to drop. The assessor has eased him a further 2lb, which looks lenient given the way he stuck on last time.

Carlisle’s attritional finish suits late closers who keep grinding, exactly his emerging profile. Rebecca Menzies generally excels with lightly raced handicappers once they gain ring-craft, and a slightly longer trip can help him maintain rhythm rather than be rushed. Provided he holds a handy pitch turning in, he has the scope to outstay several who might travel sweeter but find little off the bridle. With upside still to come, he shapes as a fair each-way proposition at an attractive mark.

Idy Wood boasts high-class course credentials and returns to Kempton off an unchanged mark after an excellent fourth in the Silver Trophy, a piece of form boosted since by the runner-up scoring in Listed company. He previously landed his chasing debut here and also filled third in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at this venue, underlining a clear affinity with the track’s demands.

Jamie Snowden’s team has been operating at a healthy strike-rate, and this gelding’s tactical pace plus slick fencing should be rewarded around Kempton’s sharper turns. Back at a trip that lets him travel and press on, expect a more assertive ride to utilise his fluent jumping. With proven class, reliable temperament and conditions likely to mirror his past wins, he sets a compelling standard. If he reproduces the Chepstow energy in a smaller, less ferocious field, he’s well placed to regain the winning thread.

Northern Air makes her chasing debut for Dan Skelton and looks tailor-made for fences. A Taunton maiden hurdle winner and former point-to-point scorer, she owns the size, scope and staying profile that Carlisle rewards, especially in this mares-only event over a trip. Her below-par Kelso run can be forgiven; the tongue-tie previously coincided with improvement and is expected to be retained.

The Skelton yard has a superb record rejuvenating new recruits, particularly mares stepping out over fences for the first time. Tactically, she can race prominently, use her jumping to gain lengths, and turn this into a stamina test up the hill. Fitness won’t be an issue given the stable’s conditioning, and market support would be no surprise. As a long-term chase project coming to the right track and distance, she has leading claims to make an immediate impact and advertise loftier targets.