Home Betting Guides What are Expected Points (xP) and how to advantage in football betting

What are Expected Points (xP) and how to advantage in football betting

It was recently revealed that Expected Goals and other contemporary football statistics will be included in FIFA 22. (xG). Expected Points, or xP for short, are an extension of Expected Goals and a step forward in how we analyse football. We’re here to walk you through the fundamentals of the anticipated points, including what they are and how they apply to football wagering.

Basics xG

Let’s review the fundamentals of xG since Expected Goals data is required to calculate Expected Point totals. In essence, Expected Goals eliminates chance and luck from football. It reveals who are genuinely the top teams and players, as well as who are simply lucky. The basic goal of xG is to evaluate performance rather than outcomes, so rather than looking at how many goals a player or team really scored, we can examine how many they should have really scored based on their performance.

The Expected Goals technique takes into account both shot number and shot quality because it operates under the premise that not all shots are created equal. Every shot is given a chance to score, which is subsequently translated into the shot’s worth.

For instance, if Manchester City plays Liverpool and Pep’s team has five long-range attempts, each of those attempts is worth 0.1xG. City would have been predicted to score 0.5 goals in this game because, after the conclusion of the game, their total shots values may be added together to produce their team’s xG total for the game, which in this case would be 0.5.

The Expected Points total for each team from a game can then be calculated by analysts and punters using xG.

What Points Should I Expect?

Based on the scoring chances that a team both created and conceded during a game, Expected Points shows how many points that team could have reasonably expected to have gained from that game. The further ahead one side is in the contest, the more extra points they will gain.

If a team were to make every shot in a game without giving up a single shot, they would accumulate three Expected Points, which is the highest number of Expected Points a side may receive during a match. On the other hand, a team that allows every shot in a game while not allowing any will accumulate close to 0xP.

It is exceedingly uncommon for one team to win a match with all 3xP, though. Teams who are dominated typically receive between 0.1xP and 0.5xP, whereas dominant teams typically receive between 2.1xP and 2.8xP. The two teams’ combined point totals do not necessarily need to equal three, with a draw changing this by one point.

Expected Points: How are they determined?

The process by which companies like Infogol and Understat generate their own Expected Points data may be condensed into three parts.

Gather the values of each shot’s xG that was fired and blocked during the course of the match. The match is then repeatedly simulated to determine the likelihood that each team would win, tie, or lose the match given the shots they have made and allowed. Simulators for Expected Points are now freely available online. To determine how many points a team would have anticipated earning, the probabilities can then be employed in an Expected Value equation. Expected points are like expected goals in that they show how many points a team should have gotten no matter how the game turned out.

A season’s worth of Expected Points data can be added up to display a team’s “real” performance levels, allowing analysts to gauge performance rather than final results.

xP and betting on football

We arrive at what is occasionally referred to as a “Justice Table” by adding up the Expected Point totals that a team has racked up over the course of the year.   This shows each team’s actual standing and the points they earned during the season. It also shows their expected point totals (xP) and where they ended up on the Justice Table because of that.

It’s important to note, though, that bookies do pay attention to information like this, and their odds reflect it. Having said that, there may be betting opportunities because bookmakers do not always fully consider expected points as a very strong signal, and thus value may be found by looking at the “justice table.” This is yet another method used by our experts to identify value opportunities.

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Born and raised in London, John has always been in love with sport. He started successfully his own blog back in 2006, while writing for football in several newspaper. John has also worked with several betting operators as sports trader and has joined BettingTips4You.com since the start in 2013. John is now head of the content team at BettingTips4You.com.