Turkey vs Portugal Predictions for this Saturday Euro 2024 Group F clash in Dortmund. Turkey and Portugal enter their second Euro 2024 match confidently after hard-fought victories in their Group F openers. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 22, 2024 at 5pm UK at Signal Iduna Park
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Turkey vs Portugal Predictions
Key Stats
– Portugal have won their last 11 competitive matches.
– Turkey have lost three of their last five matches against FIFA-ranked Top 10 nations.
– Diogo Jota has four goals and three assists in his last 370 minutes for Portugal.
Can Turkey Upset the Favourites in Their Euro 2024 Clash Against Portugal?
As Turkey and Portugal prepare for their second match in the Euro 2024 Group F, both teams are riding the momentum of their opening victories. Turkey’s triumph over Georgia showcased their attacking prowess, while Portugal had to dig deep to overcome the Czech Republic with a dramatic stoppage-time goal. With both sides eager to secure their place in the knockout stages, this encounter promises to be an exciting contest.
Team Analysis
Turkey
Turkey’s performance against Georgia was impressive, with a 3-1 victory marking one of the tournament’s standout games so far. The Turkish side, under the guidance of Vincenzo Montella, displayed a blend of youthful exuberance and tactical discipline. Arda Guler, the 19-year-old sensation, caught the eye with a brilliant goal, underscoring his potential and earning the moniker “Turkish Messi.” The support from their fans will undoubtedly create a fervent atmosphere, akin to a home game.
Defensively, however, Turkey showed vulnerabilities. Despite their offensive success, they allowed Georgia multiple opportunities, highlighting potential issues at the back. Their defensive lapses could be a significant concern against a more clinical Portuguese attack.
Turkey’s probable lineup: Gunok, Akaydin, Bardakci, Muldur, Kadioglu, Kokcu, Guler, Calhanoglu, Yildiz, Ayhan, Yilmaz.
This lineup suggests a continuation of their aggressive approach, aiming to leverage their attacking talents while hoping their defensive unit can hold firm.
Portugal
Portugal, on the other hand, had a less convincing start despite their win. A stoppage-time goal by Francisco Conceicao was needed to secure a victory over the Czech Republic. This performance has raised questions about their consistency and ability to dominate matches. Roberto Martinez, known for his attacking philosophy, will likely push for a more commanding display in this match.
Cristiano Ronaldo, the evergreen star, remains a focal point, but his performance in the opener indicated a potential need for rotation. Diogo Jota’s impactful substitution suggests he could be in line for a start, providing fresh dynamism to the attack. Bruno Fernandes remains a crucial player, orchestrating play from midfield with his vision and creativity.
Portugal’s probable lineup: Costa, A Silva, Dias, Mendes, Cancelo, Dalot, Fernandes, Vitinha, Ronaldo, B Silva, Jota.
This setup points to a balanced approach with a potent mix of experienced stars and young talents, aiming to control the game from midfield and strike efficiently.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
Turkey’s Strategy
Turkey’s offensive strategy in their opener against Georgia was characterised by swift, attacking football. Arda Guler, dubbed the “Turkish Messi,” played a pivotal role with his creativity and ability to break through defences. Hakan Calhanoglu orchestrated the midfield, providing key passes and maintaining possession. Turkey’s attacking play relied heavily on the wings, with Kadioglu and Muldur pushing forward to deliver crosses into the box for Yilmaz and other forwards.
Defensively, Turkey showed vulnerability. Despite a robust attacking performance, their backline struggled with maintaining composure under pressure. The Turkish defence allowed Georgia several clear-cut chances, exposing gaps that a stronger team like Portugal could exploit. The centre-back pairing of Akaydin and Bardakci needs to tighten up their coordination to prevent similar lapses.
Portugal’s Strategy
Portugal, under Roberto Martinez, adopted an aggressive offensive strategy against the Czech Republic. The team’s attack was spearheaded by Cristiano Ronaldo, with Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva providing the creative spark. Portugal’s approach focused on controlling possession and breaking down the opposition’s defence through intricate passing and movement.
Defensively, Portugal were solid but showed occasional lapses that allowed the Czech Republic to threaten. The defensive duo of Ruben Dias and Antonio Silva played crucial roles in maintaining the backline’s integrity. However, the team’s reliance on individual brilliance to secure the win highlights potential issues in cohesive defensive play.
Individual Performances of Key Players
Turkey
Arda Guler stood out with a spectacular goal, making a strong case for his inclusion as a key player. His ability to navigate tight spaces and create scoring opportunities is invaluable for Turkey’s offensive plans. Hakan Calhanoglu’s leadership in midfield ensured Turkey maintained possession and dictated the game’s tempo.
In defence, Samet Akaydin and Abdulkadir Bardakci were notable for their efforts, though their occasional lapses must be addressed. Gunok, in goal, provided crucial saves but will need to be at his best against Portugal’s formidable attack.
Portugal
Cristiano Ronaldo remains a focal point, despite not being at his peak. His presence alone draws defenders, creating space for others like Diogo Jota and Bruno Fernandes, who both had significant impacts. Fernandes, in particular, was instrumental with his playmaking abilities and precise passing.
Ruben Dias was a rock in defence, providing stability and leadership. Antonio Silva complemented him well, though the duo will need to be more cohesive to prevent any defensive breakdowns against Turkey’s dynamic attack.
Managerial Impact
Turkey – Vincenzo Montella
Montella’s approach has been to foster an attacking mindset, leveraging Turkey’s youthful exuberance and technical skills. His decision to field young talents like Arda Guler paid off, adding unpredictability to Turkey’s play. However, Montella needs to address the defensive frailties that could undermine their efforts against stronger teams.
Portugal – Roberto Martinez
Martinez’s tenure with Portugal has emphasised an attacking philosophy. His rotation policy, particularly in the forward line, aims to keep players fresh and opponents guessing. However, Martinez must ensure that the defensive unit remains cohesive and disciplined, as lapses could be costly.
Expected Goals Analysis
Turkey’s average goals per game in the European Championship qualification was 1.8, highlighting their attacking prowess. They created an average of 3.4 big chances per game but also missed 2.1 big chances per game. Their ability to score from various positions, including five goals from outside the box, demonstrates their attacking versatility.
Portugal, with an average of 3.6 goals per game in qualification, are an offensive powerhouse. They created 4.7 big chances per game, missing 2.5 on average. Their efficiency inside the box, with 33 out of 36 goals scored from close range, showcases their clinical finishing abilities.
Tactics and Player Performances Comparison
Tactics
Turkey’s tactics revolve around high-pressing and quick transitions, leveraging their speed and technical skills. They rely on wide players to stretch the opposition and create crossing opportunities. However, their high press can leave them vulnerable to counter-attacks, a weakness Portugal could exploit.
Portugal’s tactics focus on maintaining possession and patiently breaking down defences. Their high pressing in advanced areas forces turnovers, which are then quickly converted into scoring opportunities. The flexibility in their forward line, with frequent rotations, keeps the opposition guessing and unable to settle.
Player Performances
Arda Guler and Hakan Calhanoglu are crucial for Turkey’s attacking fluidity, while Gunok and the central defenders must step up to ensure defensive solidity. For Portugal, Ronaldo, Fernandes, and Silva drive their offensive play, with Dias and Silva providing the backbone in defence.
Suggestions for Improvement
Turkey
- Defensive Coordination: Improve the understanding and communication between centre-backs to prevent gaps and lapses.
- Midfield Control: Ensure that midfielders provide adequate defensive cover to support the backline, reducing the space for opposition attackers.
- Clinical Finishing: Focus on converting big chances, as their profligacy in front of goal could cost them against stronger teams.
Portugal
- Defensive Cohesion: Work on maintaining a solid defensive structure to avoid unnecessary goals.
- Rotational Clarity: Ensure that rotations in the forward line do not disrupt the team’s attacking rhythm and cohesion.
- Maximising Possession: While maintaining possession, increase the tempo to break down compact defences more effectively.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Strategies
Turkey
Strengths: Turkey’s high-pressing game and quick transitions can unsettle defences. The presence of creative players like Guler and Calhanoglu adds flair to their attack.
Weaknesses: Their aggressive pressing can leave them exposed at the back, and defensive lapses could be exploited by clinical teams.
Portugal
Strengths: Portugal’s possession-based approach and high pressing create numerous scoring opportunities. The experience and quality of their key players like Ronaldo and Fernandes are significant assets.
Weaknesses: Occasional defensive lapses and over-reliance on individual brilliance rather than cohesive team play can be problematic.
Managerial Strengths and Criticisms
Vincenzo Montella
Strengths: Montella’s ability to nurture young talent and foster an attacking mindset has been impressive. His tactical flexibility and willingness to take risks have paid dividends.
Criticism: Montella’s focus on attack sometimes leaves his defence exposed. There is a need for better balance between offensive and defensive duties to avoid conceding easy goals.
Roberto Martinez
Strengths: Martinez’s experience and attacking philosophy have made Portugal a formidable force. His rotation policy keeps players fresh and adds unpredictability.
Criticism: Martinez’s frequent rotations can disrupt the team’s rhythm. His defensive setups occasionally lack cohesion, which can be exploited by sharp attackers.
Predictions
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score
Given the attacking flair and defensive weaknesses of both Turkey and Portugal, the best bet for this match is over 2.5 goals with both teams finding the net. Turkey’s attacking lineup, featuring the likes of Arda Guler and Hakan Calhanoglu, showcased their offensive prowess by scoring three goals against Georgia.
However, their defensive lapses were evident as they allowed Georgia several scoring opportunities. Portugal, with their potent attack led by Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes, are more than capable of breaching Turkey’s defence. The Portuguese also demonstrated a tendency to concede, as seen in their narrow win over the Czech Republic. Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect a high-scoring match with goals from both sides.
Correct Score Prediction: Portugal 3-1 Turkey
Aligning with the best bet, a 3-1 victory for Portugal appears likely. Turkey’s defensive frailties, which were exposed by Georgia, could be further exploited by Portugal’s clinical attackers. Despite their vulnerabilities, Turkey’s ability to score, highlighted by their three goals in the opener, suggests they will manage to get on the scoresheet.
However, Portugal’s overall quality and attacking depth should see them secure a relatively comfortable win. The likes of Ronaldo, Jota, and Fernandes are expected to capitalise on Turkey’s defensive lapses, leading to a multi-goal triumph.
Goalscorer Prediction: Diogo Jota to Score
Diogo Jota is an excellent candidate to score in this match. His recent form has been impressive, and his impact as a substitute in Portugal’s opener underlines his threat in front of goal. Jota’s ability to find space and his clinical finishing make him a significant danger to Turkey’s defence.
With Portugal likely to create numerous chances, Jota’s positioning and finishing prowess increase his chances of scoring. Given his track record of four goals and three assists in his last 370 minutes for Portugal, backing Jota to score is a solid prediction.
Corners Prediction: Over 10.5 Corners
The attacking styles of both Turkey and Portugal are likely to result in a high number of corners. Portugal’s match against the Czech Republic saw them win 13 corners, while Turkey’s encounter with Georgia produced 10. Both teams favour an aggressive approach, which often leads to more shots and subsequently, more corners.
With Portugal’s tendency to dominate possession and Turkey’s counter-attacking potential, it’s reasonable to expect over 10.5 corners in this match. The continuous offensive pressure from both sides should drive the corner count beyond this threshold.
Shots on Target Prediction: Bruno Fernandes to Have 2 or More Shots on Target
Bruno Fernandes is pivotal in Portugal’s attacking strategy, frequently finding himself in positions to test the goalkeeper. His role as an advanced playmaker allows him to shoot from various positions, making him a constant threat. Fernandes’ knack for attempting shots from distance, coupled with his free-kick responsibilities, increases his likelihood of having multiple shots on target.
Given his consistent involvement in Portugal’s offensive play and his capability to create scoring opportunities, predicting Fernandes to have at least two shots on target is well-supported by his playing style and recent performances.
Yellow Card Prediction: Zeki Celik to Receive a Yellow Card
Zeki Celik, operating in a defensive role for Turkey, is likely to face significant pressure from Portugal’s attacking players. His primary responsibility will be to contain the likes of Jota, Ronaldo, and Fernandes, which may involve tactical fouling to break up play. Celik’s aggressive style and the necessity to make crucial interventions increase his chances of receiving a yellow card.
Given the high stakes of the match and the likely physical nature of his defensive duties, Celik stands out as a probable candidate for a booking.
Assist Prediction: Bernardo Silva to Assist
Bernardo Silva’s creativity and vision make him a prime candidate to provide an assist in this match. Silva’s ability to manoeuvre through tight spaces and deliver precise passes is integral to Portugal’s attacking play. His synergy with forwards like Ronaldo and Jota enhances his assist potential. Silva’s positioning often sees him in advanced areas where he can execute key passes leading to goals.
Considering his form and role within the team, predicting Silva to register an assist is well-founded, as he is frequently involved in the build-up to scoring opportunities.
Innovative Market Prediction: Portugal Over 6.5 Shots on Target
Portugal’s attacking approach, combined with Turkey’s defensive vulnerabilities, suggests that Portugal will register a high number of shots on target. In their opener, Portugal demonstrated their capacity to generate numerous shooting opportunities, and against a less robust Turkish defence, this trend should continue.
The creative prowess of Fernandes, Silva, and the finishing ability of Ronaldo and Jota mean Portugal are likely to exceed 6.5 shots on target. This market offers a strong betting angle, supported by Portugal’s offensive statistics and the expected flow of the game.
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